Tuesday, November 17, 2015

Week 11 QB Value Plays

Every week I like to try and find a value play at QB.  A value play to me is a QB in a prime match up with a price under $6000.  Last week, Kirk Cousins fit the bill and lived up to our expectations.

Week 11 is much more difficult because some of the worst pass defenses are sitting at home watching the games from their couch.

Marcus Mariota ($5300)
Tennessee vs Jacksonville 
As most of you know, I don't traditionally use TNF players.  However there are exceptions to every rule and this just might be one of them.  Outside of Tom Brady, Jacksonville has given up large amounts of yards to less than elite level QB's.  Joe Flacco is a talented QB however his weapons have been depleted through injuries.
Flacco - 316/3/2
Fitzpatrick - 272/2/0
EJ Manuel - 298/2/2
Hoyer - 293/3/0
Hasselbeck - 282/1/0
Brady - 358/2/0
Tannehill - 359/2/0

Aside from the Week 10 match up against Carolina, Mariota has been playing very well.  Carolina likely has the best all around defense in the NFL.  In Week 10, against a much less talented defense, Mariota posted a 371/4/0 stat line against the Saints.  In Week 3 against the Colts, Mariota had another 300+ yard day posting a 367/2/2 stat line.

The total for this game is 44 with the Titans projected for 20.

Mariota is a very nice Value Play in Week 11.

Tyrod Taylor ($5200)
Buffalo vs New England
The Patriots continue to score points in bunches forcing their opposition to attempt to do the same.  This game has the highest point total of the day (49.5) with the Bills projected for 21.5.  Taylor adds the running dimension to his game giving him some additional DFS value.  Taylor has only thrown more than 1 TD in a game where he tossed three on two separate occasions.

Taylor is a decent Value Play in Week 11.

Digging A Little Deeper
Mark Sanchez ($5000)
Philadelphia vs Tampa Bay
Mark Sanchez did not looks so good in replacement of Sam Bradford.  Sam Bradford is currently in the NFL protocol and reportedly doesn't remember the firs half of Week 10's game.  I am by no means a doctor, but that does not sound positive for his ability to play in Week 11.  The Eagles are projected for 27 points which is second (same as Carolina) to only the Patriots.

Mark Sanchez is a GPP play with a very low floor and a somewhat limited ceiling.

Brock Osweiler ($5000)
Denver vs Chicago
Osweiler moved the football.  The offense appeared to react well when he came in the game.  I think this is a positive for the entire Denver offense including Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders.  The Chicago pass defense has been somewhat stingy in terms of yardage (4th) however they have given up 17 TD's (T22nd) through the air.  This game has a low total of 43 with the Broncos projected for 23.  Assuming one defensive TD, the Broncos offense is really just projected for 16 points.

Brock Osweiler is a good Value Play with a pretty high ceiling but his floor could be quite low.


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