The Vegas Over/Under total gives us a peak at how the professional line makers think any given game might end up. While they are not 100% accurate, it is amazing how often they hit the mark.
That takes us to our daily line ups and try to apply some more statistics as we piece our DFS puzzle together.
I will use the TNF match up as an example
Buffalo 43
NYJ -2.5
The game total is 43 and the Jets are favored by -2.5. You first subtract the 2.5 from the total leaving you with 40.5. You then split 40.5 in half leaving you with 20.25 for each team. Now you add the 2.5 back to the favored team leaving the Jets with a total of 22.75 and the Bills with a total of 20.25. It sounds more confusing than it really is.
Thursday Night
The Bills are scheduled to score 20 points in this match up while the Jets are are projected for 23. This is a bit of a low scoring affair. I traditionally will enter contests that include TNF players but rarely will I use the players for my line up cards.
There are many contestants that load their entire line up cards with TNF players. This is terrible philosophy and also why I love getting into contests including TNF players.
Detroit 48
Green Bay -11.5
Green Bay is projected to score 30 points in this contest while the poor Lions are looking at 18. James Starks ($4900) really looks like a great play here as Eddie Lacy continues his downward decline. After Aaron Rodgers gets his club up early, look for Starks to salt the game away. James Starks looks like one of the best value plays of the week.
Dallas -1
Tamp Bay 43
Dallas is barely favored in this match up looking to get 22 points on the day while the Buccaneers are set for 21. Mike Evans ($6800) saw an amazing 19 targets on a soggy field Sunday. Had it not been for the rain, Evans could have gone over 200 yards. This is another play I will be looking to put on all of my cards this week.
Dez Bryant ($7800) continues to get more involved in the offense as he heals up. While Darren McFadden is running the ball extremely well, I believe Bryant is the better play here. TB is 2nd to last in TD's given up through the air (19). Cassel is playing just good enough for us to consider Bryant in our LU's.
New Orleans 50
Washington PK
The odds makers are telling us they aren't sure who wins this match up. PK stands for pick em. You make the call. That leaves us with both teams hitting 25 in this contest. The Saints pass defense is legendary right now and for all the wrong reasons. They have give up a league high of 24 passing TD's.
Kirk Cousins is averaging 41 attempts over his last three games. That number won't slow down going up against the Saints. DeSean Jackson ($5400) and Pierre Garcon ($4800) are both prime targets here. As Alfred Morris continues to see less action, Matt Jones ($3300) looks like another great value play. While I may not recommend him in our cash game LU's, I think he makes for a tremendous play in GPP's.
New England -7
NY Giants 55
This is the highest total of the day with the Patriots projected for 31 and the Giants 24. Brady is currently playing at an all time level. Though the Pats lost one of their best offensive weapons, Dion Lewis, I don't think this slows them down in the slightest. You will simply see more of Brandon Bolden, James White, Brandon LaFell, and Gronkowski.
Brandon LaFell ($4100) is still a massive bargain. LaFell put up 102 yards last week and continues to get better as he gets himself back into game shape. This could be his best week. You are essentially getting a top 20 WR for the price of a bottom tier player. He is a must start across the board. I feel like his price should be $2000 higher.
Odell Beckham ($8800) is tied for the highest priced WR this week. Beckham saw 17 targets last week. Eli has a tremendous amount of trust in his elite WR. Beckham will cost you a pretty penny but it may be worth it in the end.
Lowest Total Of Week 10
Cleveland 41
Pittsburgh -4.5
It looks like Josh McCown will play this week for the Browns but that doesn't give Vegas much more value to the Browns where they are only projected for 18 points. Ben Roethlisberger indicated he's not 100% out for week 10 but based on this line where the Steelers are projected for 23 points, I don't think he sees the field until after their bye.
DeAngelo Williams ($6500) is one of my premium plays of the week. The Browns are giving up a horrendous 147.6 yards per game and Williams first game in place of LeVeon Bell was stellar. He looked strong, fast, and fresh. While this may not carry through the balance of the 2015 season, his fresh legs are easily ready for Week 10. The Browns have given up 100+ yards rushing to Chris Johnson 109, Todd Gurley 128, Ronnie Hillman 111, Justin Forsett 121, Latavius Murray 139, Dexter McCluster 98. In all but one game, the Browns have given up more than 100 yards to a team rushing attack and that was in Week 4 vs the Chargers where Woodhead/Gordon combined for 92 yards.
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