Week 12 Passing Match Ups

The bye weeks are now over for all 32 NFL teams meaning we can now look at the statistics with clear glasses and now measure them all in an apples to apples sense.

I like to take my statistical fascination and combine it with the talent I can see on the field.  My eye is not exactly at a scout type level but my eye test is consistently a lot more right than wrong.

Worst Pass Defenses Through Week 11

28.  Pittsburgh - 2784 - 17
29.  Indianapolis - 2789 - 19
30.  Oakland - 2904 - 16
31.  New Orleans - 2931 - 28
32.  NY Giants - 3099 - 19

20+ Passing TD's Given Up

28.  Philadelphia - 20
29.  Washington - 20
30.  Cleveland - 21
31.  Tampa Bay - 21
32.  New Orleans - 28

Week 12 QB's Under Consideration
1.  Brian Hoyer ($5000)
Houston vs New Orleans
The Saints pulled the parachute and fired Rob Ryan the week before their bye.  I am quite serious when I say this defense can not get worse.  There is literally only one way to go right now.  With all of those cliche's in tact, they will not be THAT much better heading into Week 12.  It is easy to say to stream all offensive players against the Saints, but this is the year where it works.

Brian Hoyer is not a gifted QB in terms of any measurable.  He doesn't run an explosive offense nor does he have a decent RB sitting behind him yet he continues to find a way to get DeAndre Hopkins ($9100) the ball without fail.  Hopkins, no matter who they are playing, piles up targets in enormous quantities.  He has yet to receive less than 11 targets in any single game on the season.  These facts, coupled with the Saints legendary bad defense, align the Texans passing offense for our DFS line ups this coming week.

2.  Russell Wilson ($6000)
Seattle vs Pittsburgh
Most recently, Johnny Manziel tallied 372/1/1 against the Steelers defense who prefers to bend and not break.  The Steelers are not immune to large games against opposing offenses.

Week 9 - Derek Carr - 301/4/1
Week 6 - Carson Palmer - 421/1/2
Week 5 - Phillip Rivers - 365/2/1
Week 2 - Colin Kaepernick - 335/2/0

For those of you keeping track at home, two of the QB's on the list I put together have been benched.  Manziel appears to have been benched for some off field issues however Kaepernick was simply benched because the 49ers felt like the Blaine Gabbert experience was a better option.

Russell Wilson has not been putting up dazzling numbers this season.  He was able to put up his best performance this past week against a woeful 49er team who is well on their way to a top 3 pick in the upcoming NFL draft.  Wilson's three passing TD's against San Francisco were the most he had thrown against any opposing defense.  That feels like a trend that can continue as the Seahawks now face the Steelers who have issues stopping any reliable offensive player.

3.  Kirk Cousins ($5400)
Washington vs NY Giants
The Giants pass defense has given up a league worst 3099 yards on the season.  Kirk Cousins has been able to take advantage of the leagues worst secondaries in weeks past.

Week 3 NY Giants - 316/1/2
Week 7 Tampa Bay - 317/3/0
Week 10 New Orleans - 324/4/0

Three of these defenses rank in the bottom five of pass defenses on the season.   The Redskins have struggled against the leagues stiffer defenses against the pass but have not had any issues with the weaker ones.

4.  Marcus Mariota ($5500)
Tennessee vs Oakland
The Raiders are ranked 30th in the NFL against the pass with the Titans coming in as the 25th ranked pass offense.  The Titans offense is centered around high percentage throws and Mariota is executing them nicely.  They are not forcing the ball down field, simply taking what the opposing defense gives them.  The Titans also decided to use the speed of Mariota to their advantage last week against the Jags on TNF.  Mariota scored his first rushing TD of the season on a designed read-option run to the left side.  As the Titans get more comfortable with his legs, this adds a new dimension for defenses to consider and new found stats for us DFS players.

5.  Carson Palmer ($7100)
Arizona vs San Fran
Carson Palmer doesn't care who he is playing, he simply puts up 300 yards and multiple scores.  The 49ers are acting like they want the first pick in the next NFL draft.  The Cardinals are acting like they want to host the Lombardi trophy at seasons end.  These are not two immovable objects.  The biggest thing getting in Palmer's way this week to a huge day would be the score.  Bruce Arians has proven he will throw it early, late, and often.  Over the last three weeks, Palmer has had video game like stats.

Week 11 Cincinnatti - 317/4/2
Week 10 Seattle - 363/3/1
Week 9 Cleveland - 374/4/1


Carson Palmer is the 5th most expensive QB on the board this week though it is highly likely he finishes Week 12 as the highest scoring one.