Week 12 Hail Mary Plays

Our Hail Mary Plays come from a fun mixture of emerging talent, relevant injuries to their position (opportunity), and a little bit of luck knocking on their door.

Last week we discussed the possibililities of Cody Latimer, Zach Ertz, and Dorial Green-Beackham.  While all three didn't hit big, for essentially a minimum price tag, they were at least on their way to a decent day.

1.  Zach Miller ($2900)
Chicago vs Green Bay
Miller now has three TD's on the season including a 100+ yard 2 TD performance against the Rams a couple weeks back.  Both Alshon Jeffery and Martellus Bennett have been ruled out for the Thanksgiving game against the Packers.  Based on volume alone, Miller makes a great Hail Mary Play.  Let's not forget just last week, Kyle Rudolph was able to go 6/106/1 against the Packers defense.  This could be a prime spot for Miller allowing you to spend big at the WR position.

2.  Spencer Ware ($3800)
Kansas City vs Buffalo
As of Thursday morning, it does not look like Charcandrick West is going to play.  Enter Spencer Ware who filled in nicely for West last week going 11/96/2.  The Chiefs continue to provide points to their RB no matter who is filling in.  The Bills have tough against the run but it is certainly not an impossible task.  Just last week, James White was able to add a couple TD's to his somewhat dismal day.  The week before, Chris Ivory tallied 99 yards rushing.  For a Hail Mary Play, the stars rarely align this cleanly.

3.  Thomas Rawls/Javorius Allen
Both backs have been hyped all week and rightfully so.  Both cost a bit more than the Hail Mary threshold I am looking for but should be on the list.  Both have talent and now both have an opportunity.

4.  Brent Celek ($3200)
Philadelphia vs Detroit
The Lions have been playing much better since the inventor of the modern car took over the front office.  That doesn't change the fact last week's Hail Mary, Zach Ertz, will be out for Week 12.  Celek has seen plenty of targets this season and has been quite efficient with those targets converting over
78% into catches.  Mark Sanchez is just keeping the seat warm for Bradford to come back off of his injury.  Over the last two weeks with Bradford out, Celek has received 11 receptions and 213 Yards.  He has 284 on the entire season.  This may be betting into a hot hand, but I think Sanchez is the house giving us the nod to take a seat at a hot table.

Week 12 Potential Card

Using the analytic's and eyeball test's from this weeks research, I have started to put together some cards. This is the first one I will publish though certainly not the only one I will use.

Pos	Player	FPPG
QB	Kirk Cousins	17.2	swap out
RB	Thomas Rawls Q	9.9	swap out
RB	T.J. Yeldon	13.2	swap out
WR	Antonio Brown	24.7	swap out
WR	Larry Fitzgerald Q	21.5	swap out
WR	DeAndre Hopkins	25.2	swap out
TE	Julius Thomas	8.1	swap out
FLEX	Javorius Allen	4.9	swap out
DST	Browns	5.7	swap out

Week 12 Top 5 WR Plays

My current plan is to save on all positions and once again load up on the top tier WR's.  There are some match ups that are simply too hard to ignore.  I have a quick link to the NFL's Worst Pass Defenses and guess who sits at the top...

1.  DeAndre Hopkins ($9100)
Houston vs New Orleans
Hopkins may go down as the highest owned top tier player this season on DraftKings.  His high price should not scare anyone away this week.  The Saints are simply begging you to select Hopkins for all of your DFS line ups this week.  The Saints are an absolute travesty on defense ranking dead last in TD's (28) and 31st in yards given up.  The Texans have essentially told the world "WE ARE GOING TO THROW HOPKIN S THE BALL...STOP US".  No one has been able to stop this duo yet.
 Hopkins has 137 (league high) targets on the season and are now playing the worst defense on the face of the planet.  The stars have aligned for you to either bet with Hopkins or bet against him.  I will likely have cards falling on both sides.

2.  Antonio Brown ($8700)
Pittsburgh vs Seattle
The Seattle defense has had a rough couple last games.  Carson Palmer ended up carving up the Seattle defense for 363/3/1 just two weeks ago on prime time.  Blaine Gabbert, yes I said Blaine Gabbert, kept the 49ers in the game though falling short in the end.  He put up a respectable 264/1/0 against the Seattle defense that you can't pass on.  Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown are on the same page this year.  Just two weeks ago against Oakland, Brown saw an amazing 23 targets turning those targets into 284 yards.  This is a lethal duo I want to be a part of.  Gabbert was able to connect with Boldin for 93 yards and the week before, Palmer fed Michael Floyd the ball for a total of 113/2.

3.  DeSean Jackson ($5100)
Washington vs NY Giants
Kirk Cousins finds ways to good games against lesser opponents.  The Giants 32nd ranked pass defense should be considered a lesser opponent.  DeSean Jackson showed his speed in Week 11 getting behind the Carolina secondary and will likely find more room against a MUCH weaker Giant secondary.  Jackson is more of a GPP play as he has a ton of boom/bust potential, but can be considered in cash game line ups if you are able to work both Antonio Brown and DeAndre Hopkins in your line up.

4.  DeMaryius Thomas ($7400)
Denver vs New England
As long as Brock Osweiler is the QB for the Broncos, Thomas has value.  Thomas is fantasy relavant no matter who the QB is but his value gets stronger with Osweiler.  Thomas has more raw ability than anyone playing in this game.  Now that the Bronco offense is running properly, Thomas will
have much more opportunity playing the true "X" receiver in the Kubiak offense.  Malcom Butler has done a very good job shadowing the opposing team's #1 WR.  The Broncos may take a page out of the Texans page book and force feed Thomas the ball.  Sometimes, getting the ball to your best play maker is the medicine the doctor ordered.

5.  Larry Fitzgerald ($7400)
Arizona vs San Francisco
As mentioned earlier, the 49ers are spiraling out of control and the Cardinals are headed in the exact opposite direction.  The 49ers have allowed the opposing #1 WR's gaudy numbers.  As their season continues to derail, offenses will continue to pile up points against them.
Week 11 - Tyler Lockett - 4/48/2
Week 9 - Julio Jones - 10/137/0
Week 8 - Tavon Austin - 4/98/1
Week 7 - Tyler Lockett - 5/79/1
Week 6 - Steve Smith 7/137/1
Week 5 - Odell Beckham - 7/121/1
Week 4 - James Jones - 5/98/0
Week 3 - Larry Fitzgerald - 9/134/2
Week 2 - Antonio Brown - 9/195/1

That is 9 straight weeks of playing football where the 49er defense has given up a very good day to the opposing #1 WR.  It should be noted, if Michael Floyd is healthy and does play, he could easily dip into Fitzgerald's numbers.

Week 12 Rushing Match Ups

NFL 5 Worst Rushing Defenses (Yards Given Up)
28.  Philadelphia - 1285 - 3
29.  New Orleans - 1312 - 7
30.  Washington - 1360 - 5
31.  Miami - 1386 - 8
32.  Cleveland - 1388 - 9

You may notice, the leagues worst rush defenses in terms of yards given up, have not given up a tremendous amount of TD's.

NFL 5 Worst Rushing Defenses (TD's Given Up)
28.  Dallas - 1047 - 10
29.  San Fran - 1062 - 10
30.  Atlanta - 874 - 11
31.  San Diego - 1259 - 12
32.  Detroit - 1167 - 15

Atlanta ranks 1st in rushing yards given up yet 30th in rushing TD's given up.  The Falcons have given up 0 rushing TD's over the last four games.  Five of the eleven rushing TD's the Falcons have given up were to two different players.  Joseph Randle (3 and no longer in league) and Mark Ingram (2).


The NFL sure does move fast.  As Charcandrick West was last week's bargain of the week, Marshawn Lynch goes downs for 4-5 weeks paving a way for Thomas Rawls to be this week's bargain of the week.

1.  Thomas Rawls ($4500)
Seattle vs Pittsburgh
The Pittsburgh rush defense is solid but Rawls 255 combined yards and 2 TD game last week in Lynch's absence can not be ignored.  I do not expect another game like that from Rawls on the season however a 100+ yard and one TD day is not out of the question.  The Steelers rush defense, when faced against a workhorse back receiving 20+ carries, eventually gives way to the bruising back.

Steelers Against 20+ Carry RB's

Week 7 Charcandrick West - 22/110/1
Week 4 Justin Forsett - 27/150/0

The Steelers have found themselves facing more RBBC type backfields than the true workhorse back thus far.  While it is a small sample size, the Steelers appear to be vulnerable to a RB building up steam as the game progresses.  That is the exact type of RB Rawls is.

Week 11 Against San Fran - 30/209/1
Week 5 Against Cincinatti - 23/169/1
Week 3 Against Chicago - 16/109/0

Rawls feeds off the increased carries.  Again, Rawls has a very limited sample size with Lynch sitting in front of him, but in his sample size Rawls excels in this type of game script.  As noted in the passing match up section, if Russell Wilson can get the passing game going, Thomas Rawls could be in for another monster game against the Steelers.

2.  DeMarco Murray ($6100)
Philadelphia vs Detroit
The Lions have been very strong over the last two weeks against the run.  The Lions have not given up a ton of yardage over the last two week but did give up one TD to Latavius Murray last week.  The Lions rank dead last in rushing TD's given up and with Ryan Mathews (ruled out for Week 12) still sidelined with a concussion, DeMarco Murray is still a bargain to be had.

3.  TJ Yeldon ($4800)
Jacksonville vs San Diego
The Chargers are bad in giving up both yards and TD's against the run.  Yeldon is putting together a nice rookie season and is building into what could be a very strong sophomore season.  Yeldon has the tools to become a top tier NFL RB including a nice set of hands grabbing 27 balls out of the backfield.  The Chargers have given up big days to a very large variety of different RB's.



Week 11 - Spencer Ware - 11/96/2
Week 9 - Jeremy Langford - 18/72/1 Rushing
                                                 3/70/0 Receiving
Week 7 - Latavius Murray - 15/85/1
Week 6 - James Starks - 10/112/1 Rushing
                                          1/5/1 Receiving
Week 5 - LeVeon Bell - 21/111/1
Week 4 - Duke Johnson - 9/85/1 - Receiving
Week 3 - Adrian Peterson - 20/126/2
Week 2 - Gio Bernard - 20/123/0

4.  Javorius Allen ($4600)
Baltimore vs Cleveland
Buck Allen steps into a #1 role.  Unfortunately for him, he steps into a #1 role with an unbelievably lousy offense on a team who has now lost their top QB, RB, and WR trio on the season.  This one is hard to endorse only because Matt Schaub should have a terrible day and a terrible affect on the rest of this offense.  The Ravens are playing against one of the worst rushing defenses in the NFL so the price is just right for to give it a try.  Fire up Buck Allen for your GPP cards.

5.  Alfred Blue ($4500)
Houston vs New Orleans
Alfred Blue is not a special talent on the field but if you are looking for an inexpensive flex play,  you can do much worse.  Unless the Saints turn things around in a major way on defense, every offensive player is viable against them.  The Texans have been playing amazing defense over the last several
weeks allowing the their offense to be a little more liberal.  If the Texans can again get an early lead, Alfed Blue could be in for some serious late game salting time.  If you are a gambling type of person, I would toss him into either a GPP or Cash line up card.

Week 12 Passing Match Ups

The bye weeks are now over for all 32 NFL teams meaning we can now look at the statistics with clear glasses and now measure them all in an apples to apples sense.

I like to take my statistical fascination and combine it with the talent I can see on the field.  My eye is not exactly at a scout type level but my eye test is consistently a lot more right than wrong.

Worst Pass Defenses Through Week 11

28.  Pittsburgh - 2784 - 17
29.  Indianapolis - 2789 - 19
30.  Oakland - 2904 - 16
31.  New Orleans - 2931 - 28
32.  NY Giants - 3099 - 19

20+ Passing TD's Given Up

28.  Philadelphia - 20
29.  Washington - 20
30.  Cleveland - 21
31.  Tampa Bay - 21
32.  New Orleans - 28

Week 12 QB's Under Consideration
1.  Brian Hoyer ($5000)
Houston vs New Orleans
The Saints pulled the parachute and fired Rob Ryan the week before their bye.  I am quite serious when I say this defense can not get worse.  There is literally only one way to go right now.  With all of those cliche's in tact, they will not be THAT much better heading into Week 12.  It is easy to say to stream all offensive players against the Saints, but this is the year where it works.

Brian Hoyer is not a gifted QB in terms of any measurable.  He doesn't run an explosive offense nor does he have a decent RB sitting behind him yet he continues to find a way to get DeAndre Hopkins ($9100) the ball without fail.  Hopkins, no matter who they are playing, piles up targets in enormous quantities.  He has yet to receive less than 11 targets in any single game on the season.  These facts, coupled with the Saints legendary bad defense, align the Texans passing offense for our DFS line ups this coming week.

2.  Russell Wilson ($6000)
Seattle vs Pittsburgh
Most recently, Johnny Manziel tallied 372/1/1 against the Steelers defense who prefers to bend and not break.  The Steelers are not immune to large games against opposing offenses.

Week 9 - Derek Carr - 301/4/1
Week 6 - Carson Palmer - 421/1/2
Week 5 - Phillip Rivers - 365/2/1
Week 2 - Colin Kaepernick - 335/2/0

For those of you keeping track at home, two of the QB's on the list I put together have been benched.  Manziel appears to have been benched for some off field issues however Kaepernick was simply benched because the 49ers felt like the Blaine Gabbert experience was a better option.

Russell Wilson has not been putting up dazzling numbers this season.  He was able to put up his best performance this past week against a woeful 49er team who is well on their way to a top 3 pick in the upcoming NFL draft.  Wilson's three passing TD's against San Francisco were the most he had thrown against any opposing defense.  That feels like a trend that can continue as the Seahawks now face the Steelers who have issues stopping any reliable offensive player.

3.  Kirk Cousins ($5400)
Washington vs NY Giants
The Giants pass defense has given up a league worst 3099 yards on the season.  Kirk Cousins has been able to take advantage of the leagues worst secondaries in weeks past.

Week 3 NY Giants - 316/1/2
Week 7 Tampa Bay - 317/3/0
Week 10 New Orleans - 324/4/0

Three of these defenses rank in the bottom five of pass defenses on the season.   The Redskins have struggled against the leagues stiffer defenses against the pass but have not had any issues with the weaker ones.

4.  Marcus Mariota ($5500)
Tennessee vs Oakland
The Raiders are ranked 30th in the NFL against the pass with the Titans coming in as the 25th ranked pass offense.  The Titans offense is centered around high percentage throws and Mariota is executing them nicely.  They are not forcing the ball down field, simply taking what the opposing defense gives them.  The Titans also decided to use the speed of Mariota to their advantage last week against the Jags on TNF.  Mariota scored his first rushing TD of the season on a designed read-option run to the left side.  As the Titans get more comfortable with his legs, this adds a new dimension for defenses to consider and new found stats for us DFS players.

5.  Carson Palmer ($7100)
Arizona vs San Fran
Carson Palmer doesn't care who he is playing, he simply puts up 300 yards and multiple scores.  The 49ers are acting like they want the first pick in the next NFL draft.  The Cardinals are acting like they want to host the Lombardi trophy at seasons end.  These are not two immovable objects.  The biggest thing getting in Palmer's way this week to a huge day would be the score.  Bruce Arians has proven he will throw it early, late, and often.  Over the last three weeks, Palmer has had video game like stats.

Week 11 Cincinnatti - 317/4/2
Week 10 Seattle - 363/3/1
Week 9 Cleveland - 374/4/1


Carson Palmer is the 5th most expensive QB on the board this week though it is highly likely he finishes Week 12 as the highest scoring one.

Week 11 MNF Buffalo vs New England

Once again the Patriots are projected for the most points on the NFL slate.

The Vegas projected total:
New England 29.5
Buffalo 21

New England Offense
It will be hard for Brady to top what Cam Newton (33.9) did this past weekend however back in week 2, Brady did just that hitting 466 yards and 3 TD's against these Bills.  That was with a whole different player list though.  Since that week 2 game, Edelman and Dion Lewis have both been lost for the regular season.  In addition, Brandon LaFell has come back from his early season injury.

Among all of these changes, the Patriots remain reliable for scoring 27+ points per game.  The trick is, figuring out which player we like for these points in DFS each week.  Danny Amendola ($4000) emerged as one of the better value plays for Week 11.  I do believe Amendola will be somewhat of a plug & play type player for the Edelman role though it will not be quite as seamless as most would like to think.  The targets will come his way but look for more of a 7/65/0 type of performance from Amendola tonight.  Look for Gronkowksi ($7700) to have similar number to what he did in Week 2 vs the Bills where he posted a 7/113/1 stat line.

Buffalo Offense
Tyrod Taylor ($5200) had an interesting day against the Patriots in Week 2.  While he did throw a season high 3 TD's, he also threw a season high 3 INT's.  Taylor only has 4 INT's on the season, the Patriots defense was certainly able to exploit a weakness in Taylor's game.  Taylor also ran for one of his two rushing TD's on the season, if Taylor is able to again produce some offensive output, the Sammy Watkins ($4800).  While Watkins had a slow statistical day against Revis last week, the entire Bills team plays better with him in the game.  This Bills are 4-2 in games with Watkins playing vs 1-2 in games without him.  In addition, with Watkins in the LU the Bills average 11 more PPG (29.33 with Watkins and 18.33 without).
weapons for the Bills could benefit.  The Bills offense is a much better offense with a healthy

Rex Ryan has had his duels with Bill Belichick, we will add this one to the books after tonight's affair is over.  Look for Ryan to play more Rex Ball pounding the ball with his two workhorse RB's, while allowing Taylor the freedom to look down the field for the occasional shot to Sammy Watkins.  It only takes one of those long pass plays to have a strong statistical game from Watkins.  If the ground game is working, the shot play is much more likely to happen.

Published Line Up Cards

While I certainly don't encourage anyone to follow this exactly, I have utilized nearly all of the puzzle pieces I have discussed this week in some capacity.

Charcandrick West will likely have the highest ownership.  My estimation will between 40-50%.  In this case, you are betting with him or against him.  There is no in between.  I am betting with him in this premium match up with the Chargers.

Derek Carr will also have a high ownership percentage as well.  He is the hottest QB WITH a favorable match up.  Most of the other QB's performing as well as him either are on bye or simply don't have as strong of a match up.  His ownership in most contests will likely be between 15-20%.

The following cards have all been entered in several contests, most of which included contest with TNF players.

Good luck this weekend.

Follow me on Twitter @Brian_Eilering

Card 1

Pos	Player	FPTS
QB	Derek Carr	0	swap out
RB	Jonathan Stewart	0	swap out
RB	C. West	0	swap out
WR	Amari Cooper	0	swap out
WR	Calvin Johnson Q	0	swap out
WR	Julio Jones	0	swap out
TE	Travis Kelce P	0	swap out
FLEX	Sammy Watkins	0	swap out
DST	Bears	0	swap out

Card 2

Pos	Player	FPTS
QB	Derek Carr	0	swap out
RB	DeMarco Murray	0	swap out
RB	C. West	0	swap out
WR	Danny Amendola	0	swap out
WR	Amari Cooper	0	swap out
WR	Calvin Johnson Q	0	swap out
TE	Travis Kelce P	0	swap out
FLEX	Demaryius Thomas	0	swap out
DST	Eagles	0	swap out

Card 3

Pos	Player	FPPG
QB	Derek Carr	21.3	swap out
RB	DeMarco Murray	17.5	swap out
RB	C. West	9.9	swap out
WR	Danny Amendola	10.7	swap out
WR	Calvin Johnson Q	16.4	swap out
WR	Julio Jones	26.5	swap out
TE	Travis Kelce P	13.8	swap out
FLEX	Frank Gore	12.8	swap out
DST	Eagles	10.1	swap out