Thursday, September 29, 2016

DFS Week 4

I hate how real life gets in the way of a fun hobby.  That is exactly what is happening.  My work is keeping me from my favorite hobby.  My apologies to you guys (and there are a ton) that come back week after week, my time is being sucked out of me by real life responsibilities.

I still read and do as much research as normal, I just don't have the time to write it all up.  So, if you have questions, don't hesitate to ask.  I still have several line ups already filled out and ready to go.

I do like Cinci D tonight on TNF, I would couple them with Jeremy Hill as well.

Questions/Comments
Br_Eilering@yahoo.com
@Brian_Eilering

And hey, if you live in or may be moving to the Atlanta area and happen to be in the market for a home, give me a call/text. (678-978-8472)

I have done tons of transactions over the last year, I would be glad to help you out in your search!

Thursday, September 22, 2016

Week 3 #DFS Must Starts

Free DFS Content - NFL Week 3 Notes

I don't have time to fill out plays for each position.  Instead, I will hi-light some players that are most of my LU cards and others that barely missed the cut.

Dak Prescott ($5700) - The Chicago D lost half their starters on Sunday.  They also lost their starting QB.  Chicago is going to have a rough day vs Dallas, Most Cowboys will prosper.

Matt Ryan ($7400) - Ryan is playing good football and Falcons playing Saints.

Ezekiel Elliot ($6900) - Too rich for my blood, but see reasons above.

Melvin Gordon ($5800) - Playing poor Indy D and Woodhead gone for year.  Volume will skyrocket.  I have him on all cards.

Charles Simms ($4900) - Martin out, should have tons of volume and receptions.  Don't like match up but like the player Week 3.

Carolina RB - Not sure where this one will fall.  Cameron Artis-Payne hasn't been active for a game yet, Fozzy looked good last week, Tolbert still exists.  Bad cash game guess, better GPP play.

L. Blount ($4400) - New QB, Pats could decide to run Blount into the ground tonight.  Houston D is stingy once again.  No play for me.

Jay Ajayi ($4000) - Arian Foster out could lead to heavy volume for Ajayi.  His ability is there though I am not convinced he has it upstairs.  He's priced appropriately.  Risk/Reward.

Defenses - Several new QB's this week!
Houston - Jimmy G out, Jacoby Brissett in.
Dallas - Cutler out, Hoyer in.  I've used in nearly every LU in Week 3.
Arizona - Buffalo offense is just terrible
TB - Nice price ($3100) playing a team coming across country who is terrible on offense (Rams)
Miami - Probably hottest D this week playing Cleveland with new QB...again

Here are a couple ways your line ups may end up.  Obviously, the whole thing is just a puzzle, put the pieces where you may.  I think Melvin Gordon is a corner piece Week 3 though.




Twitter: @Brian_Eilering
Email: Br_Eilering@yahoo.com

Tuesday, September 20, 2016

DFS Week 3

My postings will be limited this week.  I am in Orlando with the family and won't have much time to post on my blog.

Week 2 was a rough one for me.  I hope you had more success.

DFS is similar to betting.  If you continue to bet the right side,  you will lose some but in the end, you will win more than you lose.  I 100% feel like I bet on the right side in Week 2, the dice just didn't roll in my favor.

If you had a good week, let me know!

Thursday, September 15, 2016

Draft Kings - DFM Reader League

If there is enough interest, I will start a Daily Fantasy Minute reader league on DK.  It would be a $3 league more for just fun.  Contact me if you might be interested and I'll set it up.

Br_Eilering@yahoo.com
@Brian_Eilering

Week 2 WR Plays - DFS

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Without having the massive savings at the RB position, you will have to spend a little more wisely this week at the WR position.  I tentatively made a LU for a large GPP I won a ticket for last week.  It is vastly different than what I was able to construct just one week ago.  The biggest reason is due to the pricing of RB's and not having that easy $/workload ratio to take advantage of.

Let's get to the WR's, in order of price:

Odell Beckham Jr ($9500)
New Orleans +5
NY Giants 53
I know it's easy to cherry pick ODB any given week,  but this one is extra special.  He will need to hit 34 to reach his GPP ROI of 4x.  I don't see that as a problem.  The Saints don't have anyone that can cover ODB.  He is going to go off just as the rest of this offense will.   I have already put him in my GPP LU's and will not shy away from him in my cash games either.  He will be highly owned.

Julio Jones ($9200)
Atlanta +4.5
Oakland 49.5
For you new readers, you are probably thinking, boy this guy is CRAZY writing about ODB and Julio!  I rarely write about the top few WR's unless their match up is so juicy I can not lay off.  I think the Ryan/Julio stack makes a ton of sense this week for your GPP contests.  Manning/ODB will be more widely owned so you might get a slight advantage here.  The Raiders just gave up a 400 yard 4 TD day to Drew Bress in Week 1.  The Falcons had over 320 and 2 TD's their own vs the Buccaneers.  The Falcons had a tough time running the ball Week 1 with Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman.  I fully expect this trend to continue in Week 2.  The Falcons will need to attack the weakness of the Raiders and that is not up the middle where Khalil Mack resides.  For a total price of $16,000, I like the Jones/Ryan stack.  Most fantasy owners are still not very keen of Ryan, now is a good time to take advantage.

Kelvin Benjamin ($6500)
San Fran +13
Carolina 45.5
The Panthers are basically slated for roughly 30 points in this contest while the poor 49ers are in line for just under 2 TD's.  Carolina will BLOW out SF this week.  SF is a bad football team and somehow the Rams made them look like  playoff contenders.  Benjamin was targeted a monster 12 times against a stingy Denver D in Week 1.  He converted those 12 targets into a 6/91/1 stat line.  I fully expect more of the same in Week 2.  Benjamin took a few nasty low hits around his knees and showed no signs of it bothering him.  I think he erased everyone's thoughts of him being hampered by his knee injury forcing him to miss the entire 2015 season.

Willie Snead ($5800)
New Orleans +5
NY Giants 53
Willie Snead looks like he could be the co-WR1 in this offense.  He caught all nine of his targets totaling 9/172/1.  The Giants pass defense was dead last in 2015 and this game will have a TON of scoring all day long.  Snead is priced in the middle tier while his production shows he could easily be priced in the upper tier.  Brees shows full trust in Snead evidenced by his targets.  There will be many weeks where Cooks/Snead are very useful WR's in this offense and Week 2 vs the Giants is a prime example.  Another great example of $/workload looks like a tremendous bargain.


Travis Benjamin ($4400)
Jacksonville +3
San Diego 47
With the unfortunate injury to Keenan Allen, the Phillip Rivers targets have to be spread out somewhere.  I believe the wealth will be spread out considerably amongst several players.  The loss of Allen will slow down the entire offense but Rivers will still throw the ball.  The price of Benjamin is worthy of a look.  Benjamin hauled in 7 of his 8 targets in Week 1 for a pedestrian 32 yards.  It would only take one missed tackle from the Jags for Benjamin to have a much stronger fantasy day.

Tajae Sharp ($4100)
Tennessee +7
Detroit 47
I said last week that Sharp looks to be the clear WR1 in this Titans offense.  He proved just that totaling 11 targets bringing in 7 of those for 76 yards.  His volume is extremely high for his price.  Sharp is a great bargain for cash games.  He makes a decent fill in for GPP contests but the Titans offense limits his ultimate production.  The Lions showed vulnerability in the pass game last week giving up 385 yards and 4 TD's to the Colts while not coming up with any INT's.

Tyrell Williams ($3700)
Jacksonville +3
San Diego 47
Williams stands 6'4" and 205 lbs.  He has the prototypical size of an elite WR.  Williams is currently #3 on the depth chart but could easily see himself rise with a good performance.  With Kennan Allen out, Williams has a chance to see an increased roll in this offense.  Williams saw 5 targets in Week 1 where he caught 2 for 71 yards.

Marvin Jones ($5500)/Golden Tate ($6800)
Tennessee +7
Detroit 47
Based on Week 1, Marvin Jones is the much better bargain here.  Per @MikeTagliereNFL , I found this stat interesting this week.
Average Depth Of Target:
Golden Tate - 1.3 Yards
Riddick - 1.8 Yards
Boldin - 2.0 yards
Abdullah 0.4 Yards
Marvin Jones - 12.0 Yards
That is not to say the game script can't change in Week 2, but it does offer clear evidence how the coaching staff tends to use their offensive weapons.

It should be noted, Jones was targeted 10 times only catching 4 of them.  This can easily be attributed to the above depth of target stat.

On the other hand, Tate caught all seven of his targets though his yardage (41 Yards) was considerably lower.

I think Jones is the better buy here due to his price.  Tate will have to find himself a little further downfield in Week 2 before I give him my trust once again.  I have not given up on him by any means.  I do own him in Dynasty as well as several season long leagues I am in.

I answer any and all fantasy and DFS questions
Br_Eilering@yahoo.com
@Brian_Eilering


Wednesday, September 14, 2016

Week 2 RB Plays - DFS

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I always like to at least have a snapshot of the five (or so) worst rushing or receiving defenses in either category.

RK
TEAM
27
29
148
5.1
2
148.0
28
30
152
5.1
0
152.0
29
32
155
4.8
2
155.0
30
32
157
4.9
1
157.0
31
26
167
6.4
3
167.0

I fully believe this will be the last time the list looks like anything like Week 1.  Carolina and Denver beat each other up on TNF, KC will get Justin Houston back, and Cincinnati is simply not that bad.

Where does that leave us?  Darn New Orleans again.  As mentioned yesterday,  this game should be targeted heavy all week.  Let's take a look at the next 5 teams, and see if it is something we can work with.

22
24
116
4.8
2
116.0
23
21
120
5.7
1
120.0
24
35
129
3.7
0
129.0
25
34
133
3.9
1
133.0
26
30
147
4.9
2
147.0
Ahhh, there we go.  This is the fine group of teams you should be looking for and targeting while setting your DFS LU's this week.

Jeremy Langford ($4600)
Philadelphia +3
Chicago 43
The Eagles just gave up 120 yards on the ground to the hapless Cleveland Browns.  Langford received a true RB1 workload not sharing much of his duties with his team mates.  Langford is undoubtedly the focal point of this rushing attack.  I don't think you will find a better price/workload scenario in week 2.  In addition, this extensive workload comes against a less than average Philly D.  The Bears are projected for 23 of the 43 points in this contest.  Langford has nice upside and a high floor, I would consider him in all formats.

TJ Yeldon ($4700)
Jacksonville -3
San Diego 47
Yeldon seemed primed for a monster afternoon vs GB in Week 1.  He was only able to come out of the game averaging 1.9 YPC but had a TD making his day for his investors.  If Chris Ivory (check status here) is out again Week 2,   Yeldon should get a lot of work against a weak SD rush defense.  This is another good looking price/workload scenario however Week 1 production for Yeldon does stick in my head.

Rashad Jennings ($5600)
New Orleans +5
NY Giants 53
Jennings did not have quite the day we had hoped in Week 1 (75/0) but he dominated the carries.  Jennings carried the ball 18 times to Vareen's 6 carries.  Vareen did have three more targets in the passing game.  The Saints gave up a monster 167/3 on the ground to the Raiders in Week 1.  The Giants could be in for another 400-500 yard offensive day.  Jennings makes sense in all DFS formats.

Spencer Ware ($6100)
KC Chiefs +2
Houston 43.5
The price for Ware caught up pretty darn fast.  It does not look like Jamaal Charles will be rushed back into this offense.  Ware gave the Chiefs plenty of reasons allowing the Chiefs to ease Charles back in.  Ware rewarded us all in a tremendous way for 11/71/1 on the ground and 7/129/0 through the air.  This is a much less enticing match up though Jeremy Langford had a formidable game against these Texans in Week 1.  Ware and West split true playing time though Ware out touched West 19-9.  Ware is a sure fire start heading into Week 2 even at his elevated price.  Some will be scared off due to his new price tag coupled with his less than desirable match up.  I'm firing him up once again.

CJ Anderson ($6800)
Indy +6
Denver 45.5
Anderson proved in Week 1 he is the undeniable starter in Denver.  Devontae Booker helped the decision process by fumbling away his first opportunity as a pro.  Anderson sliced through a strong Carolina defense for 20/92/1 on the ground and another 4/47/1 through the air.  The Broncos will remain content with allowing the ground game dictate their outcome while Trevor Siemian continues to grow as an NFL passer.  The Lions used several different RB's against the Colts defense in Week 1.  They all had relative success. Anderson could be in for one of the larger performances in Week 2.  If you are looking to spend some extra cash in Week 2 at RB, look no further than Anderson.

David Johnson ($7600)
Tamp Bay +6.5
Arizona 50.5
Johnson is the most expensive RB on the board this week.  TB gave up over 320 yards to Matt Ryan but held the Falons running game in check.  In years past, you would expect the Cardinals to get out to a hot start and allow Johnson to milk away the clock.  I do not think this is the same Tampa team who often would roll over early in the game.  I would exercise caution with Johnson due to his high price though his versatility in the passing game makes him very attractive in the PPR format Draft Kings offers. 

I answer any and all fantasy/DFS questions
Br_Eilering@yahoo.com




Tuesday, September 13, 2016

Week 2 QB Plays - #DFS

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As I go through these selections, I typically take all aspects of the game into consideration including match ups, price, and potential roster strategy.  I may not roster every selection here but the case can certainly be made for their usage.

NO Saints +5
NY Giants 53

This match up will be featured all week long.  It is the highest total on the board and should be considered in all formats as you begin constructing your line ups.

Drew Brees ($8200)
I would exercise caution here as Brees is the most expensive QB on the board.  It is very tantalizing for sure but his price is steep! One of my favorite stacks of the week includes a much cheaper QB, Matt Ryan.  Brees will make a tremendous option this week.  He will be very highly owned in DFS, making him the chalk play in what could be 30% of line ups.  I  may pivot to some lesser owned players.

Eli Manning ($7600)
You aren't getting much of a discount here.  The reason being, the Saints defense is so stinking lousy, every QB's price will be bumped up accordingly.  The poor Saints lost their top DB Delvin Breaux for 6 weeks.  He was the lone bright spot in this secondary.  Manning and company should be in for a huge day.  I would not shy away from starting any player on the Giants roster.  It should be that kind of day and Vegas agrees.  53 is a big number, I think it could easily hit 60.

Matt Ryan ($6800)
Atlanta +4.5
Oakland 49.5
The price difference between Brees and Ryan is substantial enough to consider.  Oakland just gave up over 400 yards and 4 TD's to the Saints.  In comes Matt Ryan who had over 320 yards and 2 TD's himself in Week 1.  We were told all off season how much stronger this Raiders defense was going to be, Drew Brees must not have been listening.  Mohammed Sanu finally gives Ryan the second target he so desperately needed.  Sanu caught 5 of the 8 targets thrown his way totaling 59 yards and a score.  While the Falcons defense may still be suspect, I am not afraid of their offense.  I think Ryan is a great bargain this week.

Joe Flacco ($6500)
Baltimore -6.5
Cleveland 43
The Browns just gave up 278/2/0 to a rookie QB on a bad offense.  While I am not convinced the Ravens are exactly a high flying offense, they are certainly more adept than Philly.  I believe Cleveland and LA Rams are going to fight it out for the top pick in next years draft.  Flacco has just enough weapons to put up a formidable 300/2/0 type afternoon handsomely rewarding us for being bargain shoppers.  Flacco may not be the best GPP play as I feel like his upside is limited, but he does make a fantastic cash game player.

There are quite a few good looking QB match ups this week.  In the essence of time, I will simply take note of several that catch my eye.
In order of price:

Josh McCown ($5000): You have to trust that the Cleveland offense will be better with McCown than RG3.  For the basement price DK offers for QB's, it may be a gamble worth taking allowing for more dollars spent at other positions similar to Dak Prescott last week.

Trevor Siemian ($5200): Has very limited upside but facing Indy and their lackluster defense.  They lost their top 2 DB's last week and didn't have any to lose.  Good cash play, not GPP.

Dak Prescott ($5800):  $800 more expensive than last week.  Still a good bargain.  Prescott had 45 attempts in Week 1 vs the NYG secondary.  A lot of dinks and dunks, might turn it loose a little more vs Washington who struggled mightily vs the Steelers.

Marcus Mariota ($6000): Still a good price against a poor Lions defense who just gave up 385/4/0 to Andrew Luck.  Still limited upside, better cash play.

Andy Dalton ($6400):  Really an attractive price against a Steelers defense that had major lapses last year.  Not a ton of upgrades on D, Dalton could easily outperform price.

Carson Palmer ($6900):  Another nice price for a top level QB facing a weak secondary.  Facing TB who just gave up nice day to Matt Ryan.  Positive outlook for Palmer Week 2.

Derek Carr ($7200): Facing a below average Falcon defense with zero pass rush for the 29th straight season.  Winston 281/4/1 last week vs Falcons (no sacks once again).

Cam Newton ($7900): A little too pricey for me but 49ers will rank in bottom 3 of teams this season.  Week 1 vs Rams was a mirage.  Newton could have massive day Week 2.

I appreciate any and all feedback.

Br_Eilering@yahoo.com
@Brian_Eilering









Thursday, September 8, 2016

PLAY IN TNF CONTESTS!

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I can not say this often enough...play in the TNF contests.  Use the players sparingly, but get into the contests!

Evidence:
In one of the larger GPP I entered, there were 169 (One Hundred Sixty Nine) contestants using as many roster spots (8 of 9) as they could in the TNF game.  None of them scored more than 120 points.  This is absolute lunacy!!!!!  They are literally pissing money away.


























There are another 418 contestants who only have three players remaining for this particular contest.  The fact of the matter is, TNF is like cat nip to people.  They can NOT lay off the action! This works in the favor of the disciplined player.  If you take any one thing away from my blog...be disciplined!!!!

Here is another startling fact.  There are a total of 45 contestants with ZERO points.  They have no points and will never get any points.  Once the contest starts, you can not make a line up.  You can adjust your line up, but not make a line up.  This happens more often than you would think as well.

There are essentially 632 contestants with close to zero % chance to win any of the prize money guaranteed by Draft Kings.  I am not saying I will win money in this particular contest, I am saying I have a hell of a lot better chance than these poor souls!

Week 1 #DFS Hail Mary Picks

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Hail Mary picks are just as they sound.  The success rate is built in to their price.  There is a higher percentage chance these don't hit but if you go with your "stars & scrubs" approach, finding these picks is essential for success.  These plays are not recommended for your cash games.  There is a fair chance they give you a big fat zero making them a better GPP play than cash.

I have made it clear on other posts that I will be going with a different approach but if you are looking for some very inexpensive WR's/TE's to outperform their price, here are some selections to consider.

Last season, I had a very high success rate of hitting on these bargains.  I will say finding them in Week 1 will be more difficult than mid season.  There is less data both offensively and defensively to utilize.

My Hail Mary picks are typically $3500 or less though I may cheat a little here and there depending on the week.

1.  Tyler Boyd ($3600)
Look at that, right off the bat, I cheated by $100.  The Bengals are short their top flight TE Tyler Eifert.  They also let their other secondary WR's (Marvin Jones/M. Sanu) walk in FA this past season.  This leaves Boyd opposite AJ Green to suck up the targets.  Brandon LaFell isn't scaring anyone with his skills.  He is spotty at best with consistency.  This pick may be a little premature, but for Week 1 and the price, Boyd makes a lot of sense.

2.  Tajae Sharp ($3000)
Sharp is making is case to be the WR1 in Tennessee.  Rishard Matthews may get more early work as Sharp gets accustom to the NFL and this new offense.  Sharp has had a great pre-season and makes a perfect boom/bust selection for DFS Week 1.

3.  Clive Walford ($3000)
The Saints do not appear to have improved greatly on defense.  They should still be a defense we target heavily in 2016 when we construct our DFS selections.  Derek Carr came into his own last season and year three should be another growth year in terms of maturity in this Oakland offense.  Walford received very little attention at the start of 2015.  His targets grew as the season progressed where he peaked in Weeks 14 & 15 with 7 targets each game.  Walford is another young player primed to grow in a developing offense.  If you are looking to save money at the TE, Walford makes a strong selection.

4.  Jared Cook ($2900)
Cook is the prototypical boom/bust player.  He has an amazing skill set which has teased us all over his entire career.  I have fell prey to him in seasons past.  Now, he comes into a GB offense with arguably (not in my eyes) the best QB in the game.  If Jordy Nelson is back to form, defenses (Jacksonville this week) will be forced to roll coverage on him.  This will leave both Randall Cobb and Jared Cook a little more free to roam the middle of the field where they do their best work.  In another cash saving move, Cook may prove as a savvy play in Week 1 DFS.

I appreciate any and all feedback
Br_Eilering@yahoo.com
@Brian_Eilering

Tuesday, September 6, 2016

Week 1 DFS Strategy - The Zero RB Approach

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With the news of Thomas Rawls the official #2 behind Christine Michael for Week 1, I think a new strategy should be in play.

RB1 - Spencer Ware ($4400)
RB2 - Christin Michael ($3600)

This only ties up $8000 of your cap with what will amount to two full time RB1's.  Now, you can get as creative as you would like with the remainder of your roster.  It allows you to go big at the WR position where the Draft Kings PPR comes into play.  I would propose something along these lines.



Taking advantage of pricing inefficiencies is the name of the game in DFS.  Getting two full time RB1 candidates at or near minimum pricing allows a ton of flexibility.  I would be hard pressed to spend any more money on the RB position this week.  I am not trying to say there are not other great opportunities out there at RB but I am not convinced you can find better value.

UPDATE:
I have had several people offer variations of this line up.  Including removing Latavius Murray or possibly changing out Brandin Cooks.

The point of this strategy is to give you the most amount of flexibility as possible.  I may not even use this exact LU myself.  I will use some form of it though.

James White ($3600) is another very logical player to use in this zero RB approach.  Again, the more big time WR's you are able to utilize, the better off you are in Week 1.  They will offer a massive amount of upside while limiting the potential floor of many of the low-mid range WR's you may be forced to use with a different strategy.

br_eilering@yahoo.com
@brian_eilering

What Games To Play? Make Your Money Last Longer!

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Once you deposit your hard earned money into your new Draft Kings/Fan Duel account, it has a Vegas feeling to it.  It is Thursday afternoon, the casino's are hopping, and your money is set to last you all weekend.

The only problem is, you didn't budget your money or time correctly, played all the wrong table games, and are now out of money...It's Friday morning.  This makes for a very expensive trip to the ATM.  I would assume not make a trip to the ATM during the season.  I want to hold my cash as long as I possibly can.

Let's try to avoid being out of cash on Friday morning.

1.  Take it easy on the $1M games.  Let's face it folks, those games are there for the same reason a Lamborghini sits in the middle of the casino.  Sure, someone may win it one day, it is just VERY unlikely to be you.  I am not saying avoid these games entirely, just don't dump a ton of money into them.  Walk away from the progressive slot machine after a few pulls.  I may enter one or two per weekend.  Sometimes I won't enter any.

2.  Limit the number of contests you enter.  If you pop $100 into your account, don't spend your full $100 on one pull of that slot machine.  Spread it out.  I will typically only play about 10-20% of my bankroll each week.  If you are OK with dumping more money into the machine, by all means, dump away.  For me, I would much prefer to spread my risk out and try playing all season long.

3.  Play those cash games.  Cash games are where you can really make pretty good money.  What is a cash game?  H2H and 50/50 (also called double ups) type contests.  I prefer to get into the larger 50/50 contests.  I MUCH prefer a 50/50 contest with over 100 people in it.  The more the merrier.  There are tons of sharks out there who will gladly take your money.  If you are in a 10 person 50/50 contest and three of them are sharks, your chances of winning money have been severely reduced.  If you get into a 1000 person 50/50 contest with some sharks included,  your chances haven't been nearly as diluted.  If you check the contestants, you will start noticing the same names.  You can't avoid them entirely, just reduce your risk.

4.  Try a couple line ups.  I will typically have 2-4 different line ups.  This will again help spread your risk out.  You will want a high ceiling line up for those huge GPP (Lamborghini) games.  Players like Will Fuller will fit the mold this season.  He has a super high ceiling but a floor that could be as low as 0.  Fuller is NOT the kind of player you want in your CASH games.  Your cash game players need to be more steady with less variation in their scoring.  I believe Mark Ingram will make a prototypical cash player this season.  He is a shoe in for a lot of work with good upside as well.  He has very limited potential to score a zero unless he gets injured.

You will want to mix and match players you like any given week.  As I write my articles, I will try to indicate just how I will use that player.

This week, I have indicated a player like Spencer Ware will make a good fit for ALL formats.  This means I plan on using him for both cash and GPP contests.

By having multiple different line ups, you limit your exposure.  If one of your main players gets hurt early on a Sunday afternoon...you could be done for early.  If you have multiple line ups, that injury may not ruin your day.

5.  Play less expensive entries.  If you only have $100 in your account, don't go heavy on $10 contests.  Play a bunch of $3 contests and see if you can build up your bankroll as opposed to sucking in dry in three weeks.

6.  WATCH THE INJURY REPORTS!!!!!!!!  I will check rosters throughout a weekend and constantly see rosters with injured players.  Players that have been out for the entire week.  If you enter a contest early in the week, don't forget to double check it before the contest starts!

7.  Last, but certainly not least.  Use TNF (Thursday Night Football) players sparingly.  When the regular season gets going, TNF is usually a low scoring affair.  The temptation to start players in the game is so great for many people, they can't lay off.  I have seen countless rosters FILLED with players from TNF.  When I say filled, I mean filled.  These people have close to a 0% chance of winning money.  They are literally donating money to the cause.  Their donation increases our chances of winning money each and every time they do it.  I will enter as many contests that include TNF players as possible.  At the same token, I will almost NEVER use a player from TNF unless it's a match up I just can't lay off.

I appreciate any and all feedback.  If you have any other tips I may have overlooked, email me or tweet me.

br_eilering@yahoo.com
@brian_eilering




Monday, September 5, 2016

Best Value's For Week 1

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I spent a minute identifying some players to avoid in Week 1, now let's spend some time mining for value.  Finding the value play allows you to spend big at the important positions.  Without these highly important value plays, you will end up with a roster filled with middle of the road players.  Whether you are playing GPP or cash games, you need that steady expensive piece of the puzzle to help stabilize your line up.

The good news with your value players is they don't cost you much.  In addition to that, they don't have to score a ton of points to get the ROI you are looking for.

These are the basic ROI you are looking for in the different games you may get into:

Cash Games = 3x multiplier
Example - Spencer Ware - $4400 x 3 = 13.2 Points
                 Demaryius Thomas - $7000 x 3 = 21 Points
                 Antonio Brown - $9800 x 3 = 29.4 Points

GPP Games = 4x multiplier
Example - Spencer Ware - $4400 x 4 = 17.6
                  Demaryius Thomas - $7000 x 4 = 28 Points
                  Antonio Brown - $9800 x 4 = 39.2 Points

As you can see, the more expensive a player gets, the harder it is for him to accomplish the multiplier affect needed to get the return on our investment.  The more points your cheaper players score, the less your big dollar players have to score.  Getting points from your value players is essential to you winning money vs simply donating to the cause.

Let's spend some time to find some players more likely to outproduce their ROI.  I will try to keep this list under $5000 giving you some options to take advantage of some pricing inefficiencies.

UPDATE: With Chris Ivory INACTIVE, TJ Yeldon ($4100) makes a strong buy for Sunday games!
Dak Prescott ($5000) - He is a raw talent walking into a good looking situation.  QB prices don't get cheaper than this.  He should easily hit 3x value.  He will make mistakes.
Spencer Ware ($4400) - Mentioned earlier, Jamal Charles will be very limited.  Ware is the primary back up making him an RB1 for less than $5000.  Best value on the board.
UPDATE: Jamal Charles ruled out
Kamar Aiken ($4700) - Aiken will be the first option on a pass heavy offense.  Steve Smith isn't going to be himself while the TE options have dried up.  Aiken is a sure fire value for Week 1.
Willie Snead ($4800) - Snead is a bit riskier.  His performance will depend on the progress of Michael Thomas.  Snead has some upside here but I don't feel as strong as I do with some others on the list.
Tyler Boyd ($3600) - Boyd is the clear WR2 alongside AJ Green.  With Eifert on the shelf, Boyd will be given the opportunity to vastly outproduce his Week 1 price.
Melvin Gordon ($4600) - Decent looking match up with Justin Houston on PUP.  Gordon will get the RB1 workload making his price fantastic.
Jeremy Langford ($4700) - Don't care for the match up but love the workload.  Targets + Carries could equal 20 DK points.  Only needs 14.1 for 3x value.
James White ($3600) - With Dion Lewis out, White could be in for a decent workload making his 3x and 4x value a very achievable goal.






Top Overpriced Players Week 1

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I typically give you the top five or so players at each position.  in my notes section below, many of the players I will be using are mentioned.  I will spend a few minutes discussing some players I very quickly skipped over while selecting my LU's.

Big named and priced players not playing:  Tom Brady, Tony Romo, LaVeon Bell, Dion Lewis, Jamal Charles

UPDATE: Thomas Rawls to see limited action in Week 1.  For his price of $6000, I would shy away from using him in DFS.

Cam Newton ($7700) 
Carolina -3
Denver 41.5
Thursday Night Football special.  Trust me, DFS players all across this land will be firing Newton into their line ups.  This game will be a defensive struggle minimizing any consistent points from any one player.  I would much rather spend my cash on a more predictable high output game like Oakland vs New Orleans whose game total is 51.

Jamal Charles ($7100)
San Diego +7
KC Chiefs 44.5
Charles is priced as if he were 100%.  He is not, in fact, Spencer Ware ($4400) is the better buy here.  The Chargers rush defense is subpar allowing for someone to shine in this offense.  I would much rather pony up the cash for Ware and leave the big priced Charles for other folks.
UPDATE: Charles is now ruled out per Andy Reid

Carlos Hyde ($5600)
LA Rams -2.5
San Fran 44
The 49ers are primed for a rough season.  The Rams only allowed 7 rushing TD's last season.  This offense is going to struggle to consistently move the ball.  The total in this game is 44, I actually like the under here.  This 49er team is not built similar to the Eagles team Chip Kelly took over a few years ago.  The talent simply isn't there for him to strip away.  There will be startable weeks for Hyde, this isn't one of them.

Jonathan Stewart ($5100)
Carolina -3
Denver 41.5
The Denver D was no mirage last year.  It's just solid and that will carry over for this coming season.  I like Stewart as a season long player but week 1 isn't the place to start him.

Alshon Jeffery ($7900)
Chicago +6
Houston 44
Chicago is only projected for 19 points in this game.  The Texans only gave up one TD in the last four games of the season last year.  I would lay off most Bears this week.  My recency bias remembers a Texans D that refuse to allow points in 2015.  I would much prefer Golden Tate for $7300.  The Lions and Colts could be in for a shootout Week 1 (50.5 O/U).

Demaryius Thomas ($7000)
Carolina -3
Denver 41.5
Thomas had a terrible 2015.  His drops were incredibly bad.  He now inherits a young QB facing one of the toughest defenses in the NFL.  This game has a low total and there is a lot stacking up against Thomas in this affair.  I will fade Thomas most of the season until he proves he can consistently catch the ball.  I would prefer Donte Moncrief ($6000).

DeVante Parker ($5300)
Miami +10.5
Seattle 44
I don't think Parker is ready for the big time just yet.  He may not even be ready physically for Week 1.  Gase has made it clear he isn't impressed with Parker spending more time in the training room than on the football field.  Parker will easily underperform his price.  Marvin Jones ($4600) makes a lot more sense and $700 cheaper.
UPDATE: DeVante Parker remains sidelined.

Email: br_eilering@yahoo.com
Twitter: @Brian_Eilering

Sunday, September 4, 2016

Week 1 Notes

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I have been so busy with work, I simply haven't had a chance to write this summer.  With DFS picking back up in the NFL, I couldn't leave it alone.  I jumped right in and made some line ups.  I thought I would share my thoughts with those that are interested.

Last season was strong.  I tripled my money on Draft Kings and I'm aiming to accomplish that once again.

For now, here are some random notes:
The Raiders stack is strong against the weak Saints defense.  The Saints did very little to improve defensively, there is no reason to shy away from attacking this poor defense. I would feel comfortable using any combination of Carr, Murray, Crabtree, Walford, and Cooper.  This would make a great stack in your GPP contests.

Rashad Jennings represents tremendous value at $5400.  All signs point to him getting the lions share of the RB work.  He is a strong pass catcher as well.  The Giants are facing a Dallas D missing TONS of players up front.  Jennings is a safe play in all formats.

I know you will all be tempted to tee up players in Thursday Night Football.  I said it all last year but I will say it again...get into contests with TNF players but DON'T use the players.  Week 1 is no different.  In fact, I would highly encourage you to fire up tons of contest with TNF  in Week 1.  Everyone will be itching to get back in the game and will likely use plenty of players.  It's a great advantage to have for week 1.

Spencer Ware for $4400 is an enormous bargain.  Charles will be limited and Ware made it clear he's the primary backup.  Ware could get 20+ touches.  I will be sure to work him into several line ups.

Melvin Gordon has some negative bias following him from last season.  His price at $4600 is quite attractive for a RB that should get a full workload.  The Chiefs only gave up 7 rushing TD's but Justin Houston is starting the season on the PUP list.  Gordon should be in for 20+ carries making him a great deal for week 1.

Eli Manning ($7500) is a good deal.  Cam Newton is $7700 but facing that tough Denver D on TNF.  I would much prefer to use Manning for $200 less facing the Dallas D missing most of their front 7.  Dallas might be in for long afternoon.

Martellus Bennett ($3400) makes a lot of sense.  He will get his share of targets.  Even with Brady out, Bennett will see plenty of balls.  This price makes him very attractive.

The Titans Defense ($2600) was middle of the road last year.  They are a strong play this week against Minnesota who will likely be forced to start Shaun Hill in week 1 as they continue to get Sam Bradford up to speed on their offense.  The total is currently off the Vegas board but I think it will be around 40 when it comes on.There is a fair chance it ends up being the lowest total on the NFL slate this weekend.
The Titans check off most the boxes I'm looking for:
1.  Low Vegas Total
2.  Home Team
3.  Facing New QB
4.  Vegas Favorite?

Kamar Aiken ($4700) should get double digit targets in Trestman's pass heavy offense.  Steve Smith isn't going to be himself.  Buck Allen will get some out of backfield.  Ben Watson is out for year.  All signs point to Aiken getting volume and his price is off to start the year.  He will be a $5500 WR by week 3.


Email: br_eilering@yahoo.com
Twitter: @Brian_Eilering