Thursday, December 31, 2015

Week 17 Hail Mary Plays

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Hail Mary plays are always a fun avenue to look for deep values at the skill positions.  Hail Mary plays are defined by me as a player with a price tag of $3500 or less.  I will occasionally cheat by one or two hundred dollars.

Both Rueben Randle and Zach Ertz paid off last week as HM plays I recommended.  It is time to dig into Week 17 to find that deep discounted player we can fire into our line up in hopes of hitting pay dirt with minimal investment.

1.  Jonas Gray ($3000) 

Jacksonville 44.5
Houston -5.5
This is not a great match up at all for the Jaguars but there appears to be an opportunity for a big workload for just $3000.  The Jags OC has said he wants to get a good look at RB Jonas Gray this week.  He is a strong runner and if there is a hole will go through it.
Staying conservative with projections:
3.5 YPC x 20 carries  = 70 rushing yards
3 catches for 20 yards
Total DK Points: 12.5

As you can see, if Gray does in fact get the workload we are predicting, reaching 4x value is a very reachable task.  TJ Yeldon did not practice on Thursday and is not expected to play in Week 17.  Denard Robinson came up short in his time filling in for Yeldon.  The Jaguars want to see what they have in Jonas Gray as they begin their plans for the 2016 season.  Jonas Gray is a great play this week for both his price and expected volume.

2. Keshawn Martin ($3000)

New England -8
Miami 44.5
Due to a rash of injuries at the WR position, the Patriots are once again looking as far into the well as possible for pass catchers.  Keshawn Martin saw 11 targets last week converting seven of those into catches for 68 yards.  Martin is a smaller receiver (5'11" 189 lbs) but has very good speed (4.45 40).  Martin should see plenty of targets once again this week with Amendola and Edelman both out.  Brandon LaFell decided he wasn't going to catch the ball this year.  That leaves Martin as the last man standing not name Gronkowski to catch the ball.  Martin could have a very nice day easily surpassing 3x value and possibly hitting 5x value if he can turn one his receptions into a TD.

3.  Nate Washington ($3600)



Jacksonville 44.5
Houston -5.5
Cecil Shorts has been ruled out for Week 17.  That leaves Washington as the WR opposite of DeAndre Hopkins this week.  In Weeks 7 and 8 when Shorts was out earlier this season, Nate Washington totaled 201 yards and 3 TD's.  Brian Hoyer is back at the helm for the Texans which is an upgrade for all of the Texans skill position players.  Washington has a great price of $3600 and could easily match the production of a WR double his price.  He is a great value this week and a very strong HM even though he is $100 over the $3500 threshold.

4.  Terrance Williams ($3300)/Brice Butler ($3000)

Washington 40
Dallas -4
I am going to cheat in a slightly different fashion this time around.  Dez Bryant has been sent to the IR so he is able to begin his healing process sooner allowing him to be 100% for the 2016 season.  The Cowboys will move the ball to some extent.  How much, I am not certain.  Kellen Moore has averaged 172 passing in his two starts.  That really isn't a ton of yards to be shared among team mates.  While I do feel like the running game will be used more so than the passing game, Moore will have to pass the ball to get 1st downs.  Williams caught 4/10 targets last week while Butler similarly caught 4/9.  It is unlikely either have a huge 100+ yard multiple performance type day but Jay Gruden has made it quite clear the starters will see limited action in Week 17.
Dallas has no business being favored in this game yet they are giving four points to the much better Redskins.  Look for one of these two WR's to lead the team in receiving.  Due to the uncertainty of which one will emerge, I strongly suggest not using them in your cash line ups.  They are a much better option as a coin flip for your GPP line ups.

Week 17 D/ST Plays
Week 17 TE Plays

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Week 17 TE Plays

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I will never tell anyone to not start Rob Gronkowski, he is an easy one to put in your line up every week.  My personal opinion, I try to find value at the TE position due to Gronk's weekly hefty price tag.

The TE list I like for the price is very short this week.  Instead of reaching for a third recommendation, I will keep my list shorter this week with just two recommendations.  Again, Gronkowski should always be considered when healthy though I like these two plays much better for Week 17.

1.  Zach Miller ($4600)

Detroit 46.5
Chicago -1.5

I have suggested Miller each of the last three weeks and he continues to pay off.  Alshon Jeffery joined Martellus Bennett when he was sent to IR this week ending his 2015 season.  Zach Miller has lead the Bears in targets over the last three weeks.  As one of Cutler's more reliable targets, that trend will continue.  Miller will again benefit from Jeffery being out with an increased workload both between the 20's and in the red zone.  Miller has gone over 3x value each of the last three weeks and I am willing to bet on him once again to pay off for us.

2.  Zach Ertz ($3600)

Philadelphia 52
NY Giants -3.5

Zach Ertz was a Hail Mary play for me last week and he paid off in a big way catching 13 balls for 122 yards.  Ertz is PFF's fifth ranked TE and has been utilized more over the last three weeks seeing an increase in targets in each game.  Ertz is averaging over 98 YPG in that same stretch having his only two touchdowns in the last four games.  The Giants pass defense continues to struggle giving up the most yardage on the season and allowing 29 passing touch downs.  This game has a very high total and should end in a shoot out.  Both teams will put a lot of points on the board and Ertz is almost sure to benefit.  Ertz price tag is very attractive at just $3600 making his 3x and 4x value very attainable.  Ertz should be considered in all DFS formats.

Week 17 WR Plays

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Week 17 D/ST Plays

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I glanced ahead at the D/ST prices last night and was not overly excited with what I saw.  There just isn't a D/ST that stands out to me but that doesn't mean we can't find something that will work for the right price.

D/ST Cheat Sheet
1.  Low Vegas Point Total
2.  Home Team
3.  Facing A New/Inexperienced QB
4.  Favorite in Vegas

1.  Cincinnati ($3300)
Baltimore 41.5
Cincinnati -7
This is one of the lower point totals on the day.  The Ravens will be starting quarterback Ryan Mallett who pulled a nice game out of his hat against the Steelers.  The Bengals defensive front will create a lot more pressure forcing Mallett into decisions he is not comfortable with.  Mallett is accurate and has a big arm...when he has time.  When he is forced to make quick decisions, the game seems to break down on him.  His quick decision making often ends badly putting his team in deeper holes.  The Bengals are a large home favorite, low point total, facing new inexperienced quarterback.  The Bengals check off all our items and are priced right.  I like the Bengals D/ST this week.

2.  Denver ($4000)
San Diego 40
Denver -7.5
The Denver D/ST unit will be one of the more highly owned D/ST units this week.  It is a juicy match up with a very low point total and Denver is a large home favorite.  You have to pay up for the Denver D this week and I am not willing to do it.  Saving money this week will be key.  I will be saving money at the D/ST position though this one is hard to ignore.  Denver has one of the fiercest pass rushes in the NFL.  The Chargers offensive line has been decimated with injuries and is the Chargers weakest unit.  Rivers could be sacked 5+ times in this game.  Many times those sacks create additional turnovers.  A defensive score is certainly not out of the question here.  If you want to pay up for the Denver D/ST, you won't hear an argument out of me.

3.   Dallas ($2100)
Washington 40
Dallas -4
This is a weird one.  It is a price point I like a lot in a game that could be strange.  The Redskins have nothing to play for in this game and it is likely they sit most of their starters.  The Cowboys defense has been quite strong all season and they now face a Redskins team where few of the offensive skill players may be playing.  $2100 is a very nice price for a defensive team that ranks top five against the pass.  The total for the game is a very low 40 and the Redskins are only projected for 18.  The Cowboys are last in the NFL with with just 11 take aways but that could change this week where they are a home favorite playing against mostly second teamers on both sides of the ball.

Week 17 RB Plays

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Wednesday, December 30, 2015

Week 17 RB Plays

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I realize there are better running backs this week, there is no reason to inform me.  Todd Gurley, Adrian Peterson, and Devonta Freeman may all outperform the players I have listed below.  My goal is simple this week, spend less money on running backs allowing us to pick from the top tier from the WR list.  Each of the running backs below should easily offer 3x/4x value due to their expected workload and low price.

I am going to rank the RB's in ascending order of price due to the big WR theory I am working this week.

Rashad Jennings ($3700)

Philadelphia 52.5
NY Giants -3
Jennings  has averaged 17.3 carries per game over the last three games and has added a handful or receiving targets.  Jennings has gone over 3x value each of the last three weeks and 4x value over the last two.  You only have to go back two weeks to see the Eagles allowing David Johnson to go off in a 187 yard 3 TD game.  The Eagles are a mess right now, Chip Kelly is gone, and their defense is a tire fire.  Jennings is a tremendous value at $3700 and it keeps our RB price low enough to stay big at the WR position.

Jeremy Langford ($3900)
Detroit 45
Chicago -1
It appears the Bears are taking a quick peak into 2016.  Jeremy Langford has out touched Matt Forte in two of the last three weeks.  Langford has all the tools to be a lead back in the NFL.  He is shifty, has good speed (4.42 40),  has good size (6'0" 208lbs), and has a great set of hands to catch the ball out of the backfield.  If the Bears in fact try to feature Langford this week, he could be for a big workload at a very good price.  Week 17 can be very tricky in the NFL, dodging land mines is an essential part of your Week 17 DFS strategy.  What we know for certain is the usage for Langford has been pretty consistent over the last half of the season.
Averages since Week 8
Offensive snaps: 37.3
Rushes: 14.2
Yards/Game: 54.3
Targets: 4.2
Receiving yards: 27.5
If the Bears increase his workload this week, you can easily see how valuable he could be for our line ups.  There is obviously some risk involved here but for Langford to get to 3x value he only needs 11.7 points.  11.7 is the floor for Langford this week and 4x value of 15.6 is much more likely.

Cameron Artis-Payne ($4300)

Tampa Bay 47
Carolina -10.5
I know, I know, I suggested CAP last week and it didn't pan out.  But this time, I really mean it.  Fozzy Whittaker suffered a high ankle sprain in the game against the Falcons.  I don't see any way the Panthers rush Stewart back for a close to meaningless game against the Buccaneers.  They need Stewart ready for the playoffs.  The Panthers already have a first round bye which gives Stewart an additional week of rest for his sprained foot.  The Panthers may elect to utilize Mike Tolbert this week but even if they do, there should be plenty of carries to go around for both of them.  CAP looked good in limited work last week but only saw two touches in the second half.  I expect nearly a full workload for him this week.  CAP should easily get 3x value (12.9) and 4x value 17.2 is certainly not out of the question.

Edit To Add:
Edit To Add:  Jonathan Stewart ruled out for Week 17. 

Darren McFadden ($4900)
Washington 40
Dallas -4
This is the strangest game of the week.  The Redskins are the only playoff team with absolutely nothing to play for.  I have no idea how Gruden will handle playing time for his team but if I had to venture a guess, I'd say the Redskins starters get limited playing time.  My guess would be the same is true for both sides of the ball.  Vegas obviously agrees.  Dallas has no business giving points to anyone yet they are giving points in this contest.  Dez Bryant was sent to IR leaving Brice Butler and Terrance Williams as the top wide outs.  Kellen Moore is now the quarterback and has averaged 172 yards passing in his first two complete starts.  Dallas is going to run the ball.  Now that we are in the final week of the season, Dallas no longer has to worry about McFadden getting his seasonal injury.  I anticipate McFadden getting 20-25 carries.  McFadden has gone over 100 yards in three of the four games he received over 20 carries.  McFadden has a very nice price tag of $4900 and should offer a very strong ROI for all of his investors.

Tim Hightower ($5500)
New Orleans 52

Atlanta -4
This is about as high as I will spend on a RB this week.  Tim Hightower is as close to a clear cut #1 RB as you will find in this price range.  He is averaging 22.6 rushes over the last three weeks and has punched three touchdown in during the same stretch. Hightower has been used consistenty as a pass catcher as well adding to his DraftKings value.  The Falcons are tied for dead last giving up 19 rushing TD's on the season.  This game has the look and feel of a tight NFC contest with a lot of scoring.  Vegas put 52 on the game and I think it could very well go over that total.  Hightower should see a lot of volume this week against the Falcons once again making him strong DFS play for both cash and GPP line ups.

Week 17 WR Plays 

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Week 17 WR Plays

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Remember when I said saving money at the quarterback position this week would benefit us at other areas of our line ups?  Here we go.

1.  Julio Jones ($8500)

New Orleans 52.5
Atlanta 52.5
Julio Jones is an absolute beast with serious "My Ball" mentality.  PFF ranks him and Antonio Brown as tied for the top WR's in the league and you won't find me disagreeing with them.  Jones leads the NFL in targets, yards, and receptions.  He now faces Brandon Browner who PFF has ranked as the 119th best CB in the league.  Hint: the higher the number, the better.  Last week, I highly recommended Allen Robinson as the must start of Week 16.  Robinson, against this same secondary put up 6/151/1.  Look for Julio Jones to better those numbers against this atrocious Saints defense.  Matt Ryan targets Julio 12.8 times per game on average over the course of the season.  He has gone over 100 yards each of the last two games scoring touchdowns in both games as well.  Jones will be highly owned this week in DFS.  I don't want to be on the other side of this bet.  Julio Jones will be a tent pole of mine and should be considered in any and all DFS formats.

2.  Antonio Brown ($9300)
Pittsburgh -10.5
Cleveland 47.5
It is going to be difficult to fit both Brown and Jones in our line ups, but saving money at the QB position will aid in our efforts.  The Steelers are in a must win situation to punch their ticket to the playoffs.  Brown is 2nd in the league averaging 109.8 YPG.  He ranks in the top 5 of nearly all receiving categories and now faces a Browns team who has lost nine of their last ten games.  If the Steelers are scoreboard watching and see the possibility of the Bills upsetting the Jets, look for the Steelers to drop the hammer on the Browns.  The Steelers are projected for nearly 29 poins in this contest and I think they will get more than their fair share.  The Browns are without Joe Haden, I suspect Roethlisberger and Brown are aware.  Ben/Brown should both be in for a huge bounce back game making them a possibility for both cash and GPP line ups.  I believe their floors are high and ceilings are the same.

Edit To Add:

3.  DeAndre Hopkins ($8400)

Jacksonville 44.5
Houston -5.5
You have your plethera of choices at the top spot for you WR's this week.  You will not be able to fit them all in your line ups.  Hopkins is statistically in the same group as Brown and Jones.  The biggest difference between him and the other two has been his quarterback play.  PFF ranks Hopkins as the #6 WR in the game and if he had an upgrade at quarterback, he is talented enough to lead the NFL in all categories.  The Jaguars are ranked 31st in the NFL giving up 418 points over the course of the season.  They seemingly go down big in every game putting themselves in shootouts every week.  The Texans still need one more win to clinch the South.  Unless the Texans get up big, I expect a full game from all Texans players.  They will need this game to get Hoyer and the rest of the offense on the same page as they inch their way to the playoffs.  Hopkins was able to get the best of the Jaguars DB Davon House in their last match up in Week 6.  He had his best day of the season tallying 10/148/2.  The Texans are projected for 25 points against the Jags who are 1-6 on the road this season.  Hopkins has a wider array of outcomes compared to Jones and Brown.  His floor is a bit lower and his ceiling a tad lower as well.  Hopkins makes a lot of sense at his price but you will have to make a decision at your top WR slots this week.

Edit To Add:

4.  Odell Beckham Jr. ($9000)
Philadelphia 52.5
NY Giants -3
Something tells me ODB will be ready for his return this week.  The Giants struggled horrendously without him in the line up.  ODB is a premier talent in the NFL, PFF has him ranked as the 9th best WR.  As the Eagles season continues to run through the drain, Manning will once again rekindle his fire he had with Beckham just two week ago where he went off for 166/2 against the Dolphins.  Statistically, the Eagles are worse than the Dolphins giving up more yardage and touchdowns through the air.  The Eagles look like they will be sending starting DB Byron Maxwell to the IR.  Maxwell was in the center of the Chip Kelly firing this week.  They signed Maxwell to a 6 year $63M contract and Maxwell rewarded them by being the 73rd (out of 117) ranked CB according to PFF.  ODB could be in for a gigantic day as he comes back from his controversial suspension.

_________________________________________________________________________________
THIS IS THE CUTOFF LINE - The four three WR's this week belong in a class by themselves.  The rest of my list I will spend trying to find some value allowing us to spend as much as possible at the top tier of the position.  I am not saying there isn't value somewhere in between.  I am simply saying spending big money at the top end of the WR position is a strong strategy this week.

4.  Jordan Matthews ($4700)
Philadelphia 52
NYG -3.5
Things just got interesting in Philadelphia with the firing of Chip Kelly.  I do not anticipate a drastic change in their offensive philosophy for the last game of the season.  Matthews has four 100+ yard games on the season, two of them have been in the last two weeks.  He has also scored touchdowns in four of his last five game finally making him fantasy relevant for those who invested in him in their season long leagues.  Matthews has struggled with drops this season making him a very inconsistent as a fantasy asset.  The Giants have given up the most passing yards on the season averaging nearly 300 YPG.  Neither team has a lot to play for here other than bragging rights for finishing 2nd in the NFC East.  This game has one of the highest totals of the Week 17 slate.  The Eagles have given up 40 and 38 points respectively in consecutive weeks while the Giants have similarly given up 38 and 49 over the last two.  This game should be another high scoring affair as both defenses have struggled as of late.  If you are shooting for the moon with your top two WR's, Matthews should offer a reasonably high floor.  Matthews has gone over 4x value each of the last two weeks.  If he can just offer 3x value (14.1) for our LU's this week, he will stabilize the lesser expensive portion of our line ups.

5.  Michael Floyd ($5200)

Seattle 47.5
Arizona -4.5
Michael Floyd is PFF's #17 ranked wideout.  He continues to pile up 100+ yard games having five of them in his last seven.  Floyd has also rewarded us with four receiving touchdowns over the same stretch.  Floyd has performed like a true #1 WR and we should expect more of the same in this NFC West showdown.  In all likelihood, Richard Sherman will spend most of the day covering John Brown leaving DeShawn Shead to cover Floyd.  Shead is PFF's 104th ranked DB.  Shead will get a lot of help from the strong duo Seattle has at the safety position so it won't be a cakewalk for Floyd.  Michael Floyd seemingly makes a play like this one each and every week.   Seattle is still jockeying for seeding position in the NFC playoff picture.  Bruce Arians has said, they schedule 16 games for a reason, to play them.  I fully anticipate the Cardinals to play all of their starters as long as this is a close contest.  Arizona is the best team in the NFL right now and are projected for 26 of the 47.5 point total.  Floyd offers a lot of value for $5200.  Based on the way he has performed in the second half of the season, his prices should be much closer to $7000.  The last time these two teams faced off, Floyd had a 7/113/2 stat line.  I like Floyd this week and will try to fit him into most of my DFS line ups.

Edit To Add:  Michael Floyd has missed two straight practices making his availability for Sunday very much in question.  As much as I want to use Floyd this week, It now looks like a bad idea.

I will list a few other bargain WR's I see this week to help fill in the holes as you set your line ups.
Martavis Bryant ($5300) - Very nice match up against very week Browns team.  Steelers will go big this week.
Edit To Add: Martavis Bryant now listed as questionable with illness.
Willie Snead ($4400) - Brees continues to trust Snead having caught 75+ yards in each of his last three games.  Nice price and could have 100+ yard day vs the Falcons.
Golden Tate ($5700) - Four touchdowns in the last three weeks.  Nothing to play for game, Stefon Diggs had two scores against Chicago just two weeks ago.
Ted Ginn ($4900) - Has serious issues with catching the football but still has 10 touchdowns on the season. Nice match up against TB but starters could get pulled for playoff rest.
Edit To Add:  Ted Ginn officially listed as doubtful for Week 17.
I would not consider starting Ginn with this latest news.

Week 17 QB Plays

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Tuesday, December 29, 2015

Week 17 Passing/QB Plays

The Daily Fantasy Minute:   Where you DFS advice is always free!

I will refer to ProFootballFocus.com throughout my write ups as PFF.  PFF is not the end all be all of player grading but is a great starting point as we piece our DFS puzzles together.

We now head into the Week 17 slate of NFL games.  All of your season long fantasy leagues have essentially come to a close but DFS is nowhere near over.  We need to pay attention to Week 17 playing time as teams have clinched their playoff spots.  The good news for us, home field advantage is still up in the air for some of the key teams in the NFL.  The AFC has some playoff teams in flux while the NFC is fully decided but playoff seeding is still very much wide open.

This is an odd week for quarterbacks in DFS.  Some of the higher priced players are facing defenses we would prefer not to try and exploit.  It looks like a good week to search for some bargain quarterbacks with hopes to spend our cash elsewhere.

Worst Passing Defenses (Yardage)
RK TEAM ATT COMP PCT YDS YDS/A TD INT YDS/G
28 Indianapolis 558 339 60.8 4020 7.6 28 16 268
29 Jacksonville 561 365 65.1 4049 7.6 28 8 270
30 Pittsburgh 579 378 65.3 4173 7.6 29 15 278
31 New Orleans 508 348 68.5 4217 8.7 43 8 281
32 NY Giants 600 393 65.5 4468 7.7 29 14 298

Worst Passing Defenses (Touchdowns)
RK TEAM ATT COMP PCT YDS YDS/A TD INT YDS/G
28 Cleveland 475 298 62.7 3663 8 31 9 244
Miami 517 337 65.2 3874 7.9 31 13 258
30 Tennessee 464 298 64.2 3478 8.1 32 10 232
31 Philadelphia 590 370 62.7 3979 7.1 34 15 265
32 New Orleans 508 348 68.5 4217 8.7 43 8 281
1.  Matt Ryan ($5500)
New Orleans 52.5
Atlanta -4
Matt Ryan comes into this NFC South match up with the Saints with a 19/15 TD/INT ratio.  Statistically, this is Ryan's worst season since his rookie season (2008) where he finished with a 16/11 ratio.  The Saints help all offenses get healthy where Blake Bortles just tallied 368/4/2 in what was largely garbage time once again for the Jags.  The Saints have given up 43 passing touchdowns on the season which is nine more than the next closest defense.  The Saints will likely be forced to put Brandon Browner on Julio Jones.  Browner comes in as the 119th ranked CB according to ProFootballFocus.com .  This game has the highest total on the Vegas board for Week 17.  The Falcons playing at home as a four point favorite.  Ryan has a good looking price of $5500 which is just $500 more than the DraftKings minimum quarterback price of $5000.  Matt Ryan was able to put up over 300 yards against the previously undefeated Carolina Panthers.  Ryan now has the fortune of facing the Saints defense which is largely less effective than the Panthers.  Due to his very attractive price of $5500, Ryan should be considered in all DFS formats where his floor and ceiling are both very high for Week 17.

2.  Ben Roethlisberger ($6900)
Pittsburgh -10
Cleveland 47.5
If you took my advice in Week 16 and started Ben, it didn't go the way it was suppose to go.  I will always say, play the most talented player if at all possible.  Roethlisberger is PFF's #1 rated quarterback coming into Week 17.  He now faces a Cleveland team that is very much in limbo from top to bottom.  Manziel was once again spotted partying again and could very well be suiting up for the Browns for his very last time.  On a scale of 1-100, the Browns only have one player rated above an 80 defensively (S Donte Whitner, 80.2).  As you might guess, that means they only have one player receiving a B or better on his final report card.  That is not real good if you are the Browns.  The Browns are projected for 18.75 of the 47.5 point total leaving the Steelers with 28.75.  The Steelers are now on the outside looking in of the playoff race.  They need to win but also need the Jets to lose to the Bills.  The Steelers have to take care of their own business this week and Roethlisberger is the engine that drives this offense.  I like Ben for a big game this week where his team needs him the most.  A healthy Roethlisberger has not put up back to back clunker games yet this season.  I fully expect a rebound type game with 325+ yards and multiple passing touchdowns.  His price tag is much higher than Ryan but his ceiling is a bit higher as well.  If you are looking to spend some money on a quarterback this week, look no further than #7.

Edit To Add:

3.  Brian Hoyer ($5100) 
Jacksonville 44.5
Houston -5.5
As of Monday, Hoyer is in the final stages of the leagues concussion protocol.  While it is unknown for certain if he will play or not, it seems as though if Hoyer does not have any set backs, he will play in the regular season finale.  The Texans look like they are going to be the AFC South champion.  Hoyer has not played since Week 14 with his concussion.  The Texans would like to get their quarterback some real reps before they start the playoffs.   The last time these two teams faced off, Hoyer threw for 293/3/0 back in Week 6.  The Jaguars defense likes to dig early holes for their team to try and climb out of.  The Texans will get DeAndre Hopkins involved early.  Hopkins torched DB Davon House earlier this season tallying 10/148/2.  House has had a solid year after that game having broken up 18 passes this season ranking him 3rd in the NFL.  If Hopkins has early success, Hoyer will continue looking his way trying to recreate their Week 6 magic.  Hoyer is priced at just $5100.   His floor is quite low as we saw him put up a stinker against the Saints back in Week 12.  His ceiling is not exactly sky high so I would prefer to use Hoyer in my cash line ups.  

4.  Cam Newton ($7500)
Tampa Bay 47
Carolina -10.5
If the Panthers were able to take care of the Falcons and stay undefeated, Newton would probably be sitting this one out.  As it is, the Panthers need to stay in front of the Cardinals and hold on to home field advantage.  Newton had his worst game of the season against the Falcons when fantasy players needed him the most.  He was only able to muster 142/0/0 but did find his way to a rushing score.  Newton now has eight rushing touchdowns ranking him 6th in the NFL.  Carolina is a perfect 7-0 at home and has a combined +164 point differential on the season.  The Panthers are favored by 10.5 points in this contest and are projected for 28.5 of the total 47.  I would be a little careful with Newton here.  I would have ranked him higher but if the Panthers get up early, look for Carolina to rest Newton late in the game minimizing his point potential.  This is a great match up for the Panthers and the price tag matches the match up.  My recommendation would be to find better value at the QB position letting others spend their dough on the highest priced player at the position this week.

5.  Drew Brees ($6700)

New Orleans 52.5
Atlanta -4
Well, I was scared off last week by the torn plantar fascia Brees played through.  All he did was put up 412/3/0 against the previously mentioned Jags.  The Saints prefer to play indoors utilizing their speed.  While this game in not in New Orleans, it is in Atlanta where the Saints have enjoyed their home away from home.  The visiting Saints have defeated the Falcons three of their last five dating back to 2010.  This rivalry produces close games year after year where the Falcons lead the series 49-44 dating back to 1967.  The Saints defense ranks near the bottom in nearly every statistical category leaving the offense in situations where they must score to stay in the game.  .  Neither team has a ton to play for other than a bucket of pride.  Sometimes that bucket is all that is needed to get a team fired up.  This will be a high scoring affair and Vegas agrees putting the total at weekly high of 52.5.  The Falcons are thin in the secondary with starting safety William Moore being lost for the season on December 15th.  As long as Brees can continue to play through his injury, he should have another good day against a Falcons team with very little pass rush (31 sacks 20th).  Brees is averaging 336 YPG over his last four while throwing 11 touchdowns and just one INT.


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Week 17 Vegas Lines For DFS

The Daily Fantasy Minute:  Where your DFS advice is always free!

Let's get started looking into Week 17.  I always start by looking at the Vegas lines.

Lines come from DonBest.com

NFL WEEK 17 - Sunday, January 3rd

RotOpenerTeamTimeSC

Westgate

Mirage

Station

Pinnacle

SIA

301
302
PK
44.0
New York Jets
Buffalo Bills
1:00 PM
-
-
-3.0
42.5
-3.0
42.5
-3.0
42.5
-3.0
43.0
-3.0
43.0
303
304
47.0
-11.0
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Carolina Panthers
4:25 PM
-
-
47.0
-10.5
46.5
-10.5
47.0
-10.5
46.5
-10.5
46.5
-10.5
305
306
-
-
New England Patriots
Miami Dolphins
1:00 PM
-
-
-9.0
48.0
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
307
308
-
-
Baltimore Ravens
Cincinnati Bengals
1:00 PM
-
-
42.5
-7.0
-
-
-
-
43.0
-7.5
-
-
309
310
52.0
-3.5
New Orleans Saints
Atlanta Falcons
1:00 PM
-
-
52.5
-4.0
52.5
-4.0
52.0
-4.5
53.0
-4.0
52.0
-4.0
311
312
-
-
Jacksonville Jaguars
Houston Texans
1:00 PM
-
-
-
PK
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
313
314
-10.5
47.5
Pittsburgh Steelers
Cleveland Browns
1:00 PM
-
-
-10.0
47.5
-10.0
47.0
-10.0
47.0
-10.0
47.5
-10.0
47.0
315
316
45.0
-7.0
Oakland Raiders
Kansas City Chiefs
4:25 PM
-
-
43.5
-6.5
43.5
-6.5
-
PK
43.5
-7.0
43.5
-6.5
317
318
-
-
Tennessee Titans
Indianapolis Colts
1:00 PM
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
319
320
-
-
Washington Redskins
Dallas Cowboys
1:00 PM
-
-
-
PK
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
321
322
46.5
-1.5
Detroit Lions
Chicago Bears
1:00 PM
-
-
45.0
-1.0
45.0
-1.0
45.0
-1.0
45.0
-1.0
45.0
-1.0
323
324
52.0
-3.0
Philadelphia Eagles
New York Giants
1:00 PM
-
-
52.5
-3.0
52.0
-3.0
52.0
-3.0
-
-3.5
52.0
-3.5
325
326
48.5
-3.0
Minnesota Vikings
Green Bay Packers
8:30 PM
-
-
48.0
-3.0
48.0
-3.0
47.5
-3.0
47.5
-3.0
48.0
-3.5
327
328
-
-
San Diego Chargers
Denver Broncos
4:25 PM
-
-
40.0
-7.5
-
-
-
PK
41.0
-7.5
-
-
329
330
-3.0
37.0
St. Louis Rams
San Francisco 49ers
4:25 PM
-
-
-3.5
37.5
-3.5
37.5
-3.5
37.0
-3.5
37.0
-3.5
37.5
331
332
48.0
-4.0
Seattle Seahawks
Arizona Cardinals
4:25 PM
-
-
47.5
-4.5
47.5
-4.5
48.0
-5.0
47.5
-4.5
47.5
-4.5