Value, Value, Value
Value describes the RB landscape this week in DFS. Some key injuries have sprung some new play makers into key positions in the NFL. While the injuries may have been back breaking for your season long teams (Rawls broke my back last week) they provide us with tremendous value for DFS.
5 Worst Rushing Defenses (Yardage)
| RK | TEAM | ATT | YDS | YDS/A | TD | YDS/G |
| 28 | Philadelphia | 377 | 1648 | 4.4 | 6 | 126.8 |
| 29 | Cleveland | 376 | 1707 | 4.5 | 11 | 131.3 |
| 30 | Miami | 417 | 1709 | 4.1 | 9 | 131.5 |
| 31 | San Francisco | 407 | 1732 | 4.3 | 16 | 133.2 |
| 32 | New Orleans | 357 | 1769 | 5 | 10 | 136.1 |
5 Worst Rushing Defenses (Touch Downs)
| RK | TEAM | ATT | YDS | YDS/A | TD | YDS/G |
| 28 | San Diego | 342 | 1645 | 4.8 | 12 | 126.5 |
| 29 | Dallas | 359 | 1479 | 4.1 | 13 | 113.8 |
| 30 | San Francisco | 407 | 1732 | 4.3 | 16 | 133.2 |
| 31 | Atlanta | 354 | 1373 | 3.9 | 17 | 105.6 |
| 32 | Detroit | 363 | 1507 | 4.2 | 18 | 115.9 |
1. David Johnson ($5700)
Arizona -3.5
@Philadelphia 50.5
Philadelphia is giving up over 126 YPG on average on the season. David Johnson, over the last two weeks, has staked his claim as the Cardinal lead back for the foreseeable future. The Cardinals are the 2nd highest scoring offense in the NFL and are projected to score 27 of the 50.5 projected Vegas total. The line looks a little off to me as I see this as more of a one sided affair. If the Cardinals do Johnson is a great pass catcher (not counting his TD drop last week) adding to his DraftKings appeal. Johnson has hit 4x value in each of his last two weeks and while his price is a bit higher this week, 4x value is definitely not out of the question going against a week Eagles defense. Johnson makes a great cash play due to his volume and has the upside of hitting paydirt multiple times allowing us to consider him for our GPP cards as well.get up by more than a TD late in the game, Johnson will have his opportunity to pile up carries in clock killing mode.
2. Denard Robinson ($4600)
Atlanta 47
@ Jacksonville -3.5
The Jaguars are playing very well offensively. As of Wednesday, we don't know the status of TJ Yeldon so we will have to speculate a little bit here. Assuming Yeldon does not play, Denard Robinson steps into a role he has filled very well over the last two + years. In games where he was forced into the feature back role, Robinson has made the most of his opportunities. This past week in what was largely garbage time for the Jaguars, Robinson tallied 75 yards and a TD against the Colts. In 2014, Robinson had back to back 100+ yard games adding two TD's in a three game span. Toby Gerhart is currently on IR making Robinson an immediate RB1 for fantasy purposes. Robinson has amazing open field abilities and top end speed allowing him to get into open spaces and capitalizing on the opportunities the defense gives him. The Atlanta rush defense has allowed the second most rushing TD's (17) on the season. The Falcons seemed to give up completely against the Panthers last week. If they don't bounce back, Robinson could be in for a big day. I belive his workload will warrant cash games and his big play ability makes him a target for GPP as well.
3. Tim Hightower ($3900)
Detroit 50
@ New Orleans -2.5
Heading into this past weeks game, it was a bit of mystery on which Saints RB would take the lead role. That mystery has been solved where Hightower saw a large amount of volume with 28 carries 85 yards and a TD. He did add one reception to his total while CJ Spiller only saw 15 offensive snaps totaling 2 yards rushing and 7 yards receiving. Assuming this trend continues, Hightower makes a great value play for a mere $3900. His workload is more in line with that of a $6000 RB. Hightower is not a special talent but opportunity and workload make him a very good bargain for Week 15. The Lions have given up a league high 18 rushing TD's including two last week to Todd Gurley. Let it be clear, there is NO comparison between Hightower and Gurley in terms of talent. None what so ever. As I stated earlier, this is a great week to use value RB's allowing us to load up BIG at the WR position. Hightower really doesn't have blow up potential but his workload makes him a great cash game play this week. I would temper my expectations for his GPP possibilities. He should easily hit 4x value and could also get to 5x value this week.
4. Todd Gurley ($6700)
Tampa Bay -2
St. Louis 41
This game is a TNF contest and is already the lowest total on the board. I rarely recommend using TNF players but Todd Gurley changes things a bit. Gurley is a generational talent and finds ways to excel in the running game even though the rest of the offense is completely inept. The Tampa rush defense just gave up 85 yards to Tim Hightower and as mentioed earlier, Gurley is FAR superior to Hightower. If you want to spend some money at the RB position, Gurley may be your best bet. Just keep in mind the game is the lowest total of the week and is TNF. When a team knows you are going to run the ball and you are still successful, you either have tremendous line play or a tremendous RB. The Rams don't have tremendous line play. His size, speed, explosion combination make him an elite level talent rivaled by few others in the NFL. His workload should be a consistent 20+ carry a game yet sometimes the Rams unthinkably forget #28 is on the field. I expect one of those 20+ carry games for Gurley. If one of those games is in store, he could find himself tallying 150+ yards and 2 TD's
Note: Monitor his injury status, he was limited in practice on Tuesday.
5. Latavius Murray ($4500)
Green Bay -2.5
@ Oakland 45.5
This is another case where we are looking for value allowing us to spend more at other positions. The Raiders struggled against the Broncos defense last week but that is really just status quo. They now face a Green Bay rush defense who just allowed Darren McFadden to get loose for 9/111/0. Robert Turbin got his chance as well where he was able to average over 7 YPC and was seen going basially untouched for the running score. Latavius Murray is a big (6'3" 230 lb) physical back with well above average speed. Murray has the skill set to become a premier NFL running back and is priced where he can easily give us 4x value. Murray only has two 100+ yard performances on the season but I do believe that drought will come to end this week. Murray is another running back we can lean on in both cash games and GPP contests.
I answer any and all fantasy football questions.
Tweet me @Brian_Eilering
Email Br_Eilering@yahoo.com
Detroit 50
@ New Orleans -2.5
Heading into this past weeks game, it was a bit of mystery on which Saints RB would take the lead role. That mystery has been solved where Hightower saw a large amount of volume with 28 carries 85 yards and a TD. He did add one reception to his total while CJ Spiller only saw 15 offensive snaps totaling 2 yards rushing and 7 yards receiving. Assuming this trend continues, Hightower makes a great value play for a mere $3900. His workload is more in line with that of a $6000 RB. Hightower is not a special talent but opportunity and workload make him a very good bargain for Week 15. The Lions have given up a league high 18 rushing TD's including two last week to Todd Gurley. Let it be clear, there is NO comparison between Hightower and Gurley in terms of talent. None what so ever. As I stated earlier, this is a great week to use value RB's allowing us to load up BIG at the WR position. Hightower really doesn't have blow up potential but his workload makes him a great cash game play this week. I would temper my expectations for his GPP possibilities. He should easily hit 4x value and could also get to 5x value this week.4. Todd Gurley ($6700)
Tampa Bay -2
St. Louis 41
This game is a TNF contest and is already the lowest total on the board. I rarely recommend using TNF players but Todd Gurley changes things a bit. Gurley is a generational talent and finds ways to excel in the running game even though the rest of the offense is completely inept. The Tampa rush defense just gave up 85 yards to Tim Hightower and as mentioed earlier, Gurley is FAR superior to Hightower. If you want to spend some money at the RB position, Gurley may be your best bet. Just keep in mind the game is the lowest total of the week and is TNF. When a team knows you are going to run the ball and you are still successful, you either have tremendous line play or a tremendous RB. The Rams don't have tremendous line play. His size, speed, explosion combination make him an elite level talent rivaled by few others in the NFL. His workload should be a consistent 20+ carry a game yet sometimes the Rams unthinkably forget #28 is on the field. I expect one of those 20+ carry games for Gurley. If one of those games is in store, he could find himself tallying 150+ yards and 2 TD's
Note: Monitor his injury status, he was limited in practice on Tuesday.
5. Latavius Murray ($4500)
Green Bay -2.5
@ Oakland 45.5
This is another case where we are looking for value allowing us to spend more at other positions. The Raiders struggled against the Broncos defense last week but that is really just status quo. They now face a Green Bay rush defense who just allowed Darren McFadden to get loose for 9/111/0. Robert Turbin got his chance as well where he was able to average over 7 YPC and was seen going basially untouched for the running score. Latavius Murray is a big (6'3" 230 lb) physical back with well above average speed. Murray has the skill set to become a premier NFL running back and is priced where he can easily give us 4x value. Murray only has two 100+ yard performances on the season but I do believe that drought will come to end this week. Murray is another running back we can lean on in both cash games and GPP contests.
I answer any and all fantasy football questions.
Tweet me @Brian_Eilering
Email Br_Eilering@yahoo.com
No comments:
Post a Comment