I have been working hard to not spoil any of my Hail Mary plays in my earlier posts. My HM plays have been RED HOT where four of my six recommendations scored in Week 13. Just one week prior in Week 12, an unbelievable five out of five scored touch downs.
I have a $3500 cutoff for Hail Mary Plays. I do sometimes cheat and creep over the line but I try to stick to my own set of rules.
1. C.J. Spiller/Tim Hightower ($3000)
New Orleans @ Tampa Bay
I always say, a HM play derives from an emerging player or injury at a key position. Well, here we go. Mark Ingram has a late season ending injury which was reported everywhere on Wednesday. Of course this opens the door for someone to walk through. No one truly knows what workload to expect out of Spiller or Tim Hightower this week. Right now, it is just a guess. What we do know is Spiller has amazing speed and amazing open field cutting ability. While Hightower may get the early down work, the workload for Spiller will almost certainly go up. Both are priced the same at $3000. I do believe Hightower may do some of the heavy lifting but I also believe Spiller gets the glory. Spiller would be my GPP play and Hightower is a better cash game play.2. Brian Hartline ($3700)
San Francisco @ Cleveland
I told you up front I try not to cheat, yet here I go. He's only $200 over the threshold so don't get to upset here. Hartline has seen 9/12/11 targets over the last three games converting those targets into 20 receptions and 234 Yards. SF is coming across the country to play in this ugly game and they have not done well in this format. The 49ers are 1-5 on the road giving up an average of 32.67 PPG. Hartline only has two TD's on the season. Both TD's came in the game against the Cardinals. His double digit target usage over the last four games is very hard to ignore this far into the season. Enters Johnny Manziel who has a bit of a gun slinger mentality and I think this one looks ripe for the pickings. His price and lack of TD's make him a very strong cash play but I may shy away from him in GPP contests.
3. Ryan Mathews ($3400)
Buffalo @Philadelphia
It is quite clear DeMarco Murray isn't fitting into this scheme the Eagles have put in front of him. Over the last four weeks, we have seen his offensive snaps drop from 60/30/35/14. That is a dramatic decrease in snaps and should be alarming for any fantasy player out there. Darren Sproles out snapped Murray last week indicating Chip Kelly would prefer to play just about anyone as opposed to Murray at this point. Mathews is finally cleared to play coming off his concussion he suffered back in Week 10. All signs point to Mathews leading the team in carries. While Buffalo is a tough defensive unit, it is hard to find a RB for $3400 that will lead his team in carries. Mathews actually makes sense in all DFS formats though is a bit risky. His risk makes him a better GPP play but I would consider him in cash games as well.Edit To Add:
Ian Rappaport is reporting Darren Sproles will likely get the bulk of the work on Sunday for the Eagles. If this was just another reporter, I may not read the tea leaves but Rappaport is an extremely reliable source of information. Mathews still makes a GPP play but his risk is now higher. I have pivoted my Mathews shares to both Luke Wilson and Tyler Lockett.
4. Luke Wilson ($2500)
Seattle @ Baltimore
Wilson is going to be quickly overlooked this week due to the appeal of Austin Seferian-Jenkins who is priced just $200 more. The snap count has more than doubled since the injury to Jimmy Graham and that number is sure to grow this week against Baltimore. Wilson has a huge 6'6 251 lb frame making him a beautiful RZ target. Russell Wilson is absolutely on fire right now and I expect more of the same going up against a Baltimore secondary that has been decimated by injuries over the course of the season. I expect the Seahawks to pile up points once again making the Ravens the latest in the carnage left behind. Everyone in DFS will be on ASJ, Luke Wilson may be the smart play to win your GPP contests. Gary Barnidge has gotten the better of this Ravens defense in recent weeks and Wilson has a legitimate chance to do the same thing.I answer any and all fantasy/DFS questions
Tweet me @Brian_Eilering
Email Br_Eilering@yahoo.com
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