Remember when I said saving money at the quarterback position this week would benefit us at other areas of our line ups? Here we go.
1. Julio Jones ($8500)
New Orleans 52.5
Atlanta 52.5
Julio Jones is an absolute beast with serious "My Ball" mentality. PFF ranks him and Antonio Brown as tied for the top WR's in the league and you won't find me disagreeing with them. Jones leads the NFL in targets, yards, and receptions. He now faces Brandon Browner who PFF has ranked as the 119th best CB in the league. Hint: the higher the number, the better. Last week, I highly recommended Allen Robinson as the must start of Week 16. Robinson, against this same secondary put up 6/151/1. Look for Julio Jones to better those numbers against this atrocious Saints defense. Matt Ryan targets Julio 12.8 times per game on average over the course of the season. He has gone over 100 yards each of the last two games scoring touchdowns in both games as well. Jones will be highly owned this week in DFS. I don't want to be on the other side of this bet. Julio Jones will be a tent pole of mine and should be considered in any and all DFS formats.
2. Antonio Brown ($9300)
Pittsburgh -10.5
Cleveland 47.5
It is going to be difficult to fit both Brown and Jones in our line ups, but saving money at the QB position will aid in our efforts. The Steelers are in a must win situation to punch their ticket to the playoffs. Brown is 2nd in the league averaging 109.8 YPG. He ranks in the top 5 of nearly all receiving categories and now faces a Browns team who has lost nine of their last ten games. If the Steelers are scoreboard watching and see the possibility of the Bills upsetting the Jets, look for the Steelers to drop the hammer on the Browns. The Steelers are projected for nearly 29 poins in this contest and I think they will get more than their fair share. The Browns are without Joe Haden, I suspect Roethlisberger and Brown are aware. Ben/Brown should both be in for a huge bounce back game making them a possibility for both cash and GPP line ups. I believe their floors are high and ceilings are the same.
Edit To Add:
New to #Browns concussion protocol: QB Johnny Manziel & CB Tramon Williams, per club.
— Tony Grossi (@TonyGrossi) December 30, 2015
3. DeAndre Hopkins ($8400)
Jacksonville 44.5
Houston -5.5
You have your plethera of choices at the top spot for you WR's this week. You will not be able to fit them all in your line ups. Hopkins is statistically in the same group as Brown and Jones. The biggest difference between him and the other two has been his quarterback play. PFF ranks Hopkins as the #6 WR in the game and if he had an upgrade at quarterback, he is talented enough to lead the NFL in all categories. The Jaguars are ranked 31st in the NFL giving up 418 points over the course of the season. They seemingly go down big in every game putting themselves in shootouts every week. The Texans still need one more win to clinch the South. Unless the Texans get up big, I expect a full game from all Texans players. They will need this game to get Hoyer and the rest of the offense on the same page as they inch their way to the playoffs. Hopkins was able to get the best of the Jaguars DB Davon House in their last match up in Week 6. He had his best day of the season tallying 10/148/2. The Texans are projected for 25 points against the Jags who are 1-6 on the road this season. Hopkins has a wider array of outcomes compared to Jones and Brown. His floor is a bit lower and his ceiling a tad lower as well. Hopkins makes a lot of sense at his price but you will have to make a decision at your top WR slots this week.
Edit To Add:
NFL Research confirms DeAndre Hopkins is the first player with 100-yard receiving games under 4 different starting QBs in a season.
— Chris Wesseling (@ChrisWesseling) December 30, 2015
4. Odell Beckham Jr. ($9000)
Philadelphia 52.5
NY Giants -3
Something tells me ODB will be ready for his return this week. The Giants struggled horrendously without him in the line up. ODB is a premier talent in the NFL, PFF has him ranked as the 9th best WR. As the Eagles season continues to run through the drain, Manning will once again rekindle his fire he had with Beckham just two week ago where he went off for 166/2 against the Dolphins. Statistically, the Eagles are worse than the Dolphins giving up more yardage and touchdowns through the air. The Eagles look like they will be sending starting DB Byron Maxwell to the IR. Maxwell was in the center of the Chip Kelly firing this week. They signed Maxwell to a 6 year $63M contract and Maxwell rewarded them by being the 73rd (out of 117) ranked CB according to PFF. ODB could be in for a gigantic day as he comes back from his controversial suspension.
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THIS IS THE CUTOFF LINE - The four three WR's this week belong in a class by themselves. The rest of my list I will spend trying to find some value allowing us to spend as much as possible at the top tier of the position. I am not saying there isn't value somewhere in between. I am simply saying spending big money at the top end of the WR position is a strong strategy this week.
4. Jordan Matthews ($4700)
Philadelphia 52
NYG -3.5
Things just got interesting in Philadelphia with the firing of Chip Kelly. I do not anticipate a drastic change in their offensive philosophy for the last game of the season. Matthews has four 100+ yard games on the season, two of them have been in the last two weeks. He has also scored touchdowns in four of his last five game finally making him fantasy relevant for those who invested in him in their season long leagues. Matthews has struggled with drops this season making him a very inconsistent as a fantasy asset. The Giants have given up the most passing yards on the season averaging nearly 300 YPG. Neither team has a lot to play for here other than bragging rights for finishing 2nd in the NFC East. This game has one of the highest totals of the Week 17 slate. The Eagles have given up 40 and 38 points respectively in consecutive weeks while the Giants have similarly given up 38 and 49 over the last two. This game should be another high scoring affair as both defenses have struggled as of late. If you are shooting for the moon with your top two WR's, Matthews should offer a reasonably high floor. Matthews has gone over 4x value each of the last two weeks. If he can just offer 3x value (14.1) for our LU's this week, he will stabilize the lesser expensive portion of our line ups.
5. Michael Floyd ($5200)
Seattle 47.5
Arizona -4.5
Michael Floyd is PFF's #17 ranked wideout. He continues to pile up 100+ yard games having five of them in his last seven. Floyd has also rewarded us with four receiving touchdowns over the same stretch. Floyd has performed like a true #1 WR and we should expect more of the same in this NFC West showdown. In all likelihood, Richard Sherman will spend most of the day covering John Brown leaving DeShawn Shead to cover Floyd. Shead is PFF's 104th ranked DB. Shead will get a lot of help from the strong duo Seattle has at the safety position so it won't be a cakewalk for Floyd. Michael Floyd seemingly makes a play like this one each and every week. Seattle is still jockeying for seeding position in the NFC playoff picture. Bruce Arians has said, they schedule 16 games for a reason, to play them. I fully anticipate the Cardinals to play all of their starters as long as this is a close contest. Arizona is the best team in the NFL right now and are projected for 26 of the 47.5 point total. Floyd offers a lot of value for $5200. Based on the way he has performed in the second half of the season, his prices should be much closer to $7000. The last time these two teams faced off, Floyd had a 7/113/2 stat line. I like Floyd this week and will try to fit him into most of my DFS line ups.
Edit To Add: Michael Floyd has missed two straight practices making his availability for Sunday very much in question. As much as I want to use Floyd this week, It now looks like a bad idea.
I will list a few other bargain WR's I see this week to help fill in the holes as you set your line ups.
Martavis Bryant ($5300) - Very nice match up against very week Browns team. Steelers will go big this week.
Edit To Add: Martavis Bryant now listed as questionable with illness.
Willie Snead ($4400) - Brees continues to trust Snead having caught 75+ yards in each of his last three games. Nice price and could have 100+ yard day vs the Falcons.
Golden Tate ($5700) - Four touchdowns in the last three weeks. Nothing to play for game, Stefon Diggs had two scores against Chicago just two weeks ago.
Ted Ginn ($4900) - Has serious issues with catching the football but still has 10 touchdowns on the season. Nice match up against TB but starters could get pulled for playoff rest.
Edit To Add: Ted Ginn officially listed as doubtful for Week 17.
I would not consider starting Ginn with this latest news.
Week 17 QB Plays
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