For those of you who have been reading my blog over the last couple weeks, you know I use a cheat sheet when selecting a D/ST. It is not a hard rule to follow by law but rather a good starting point to let data steer us in the right direction.
1. Low Vegas Point Total
2. Home Team
3. Facing A New/Inexperienced QB
4. Favorite in Vegas
1. NY Jets ($3300)
NY Jets -3
@Dallas 42
The Jets check off 3/4 of our items from our cheat sheet. They are a favorite in Vegas, facing a bad QB, and the game is the second lowest total on the board. Matt Cassel has been a very bad quarterback. The Dallas defense has virtually kept them in every game but in the end Cassel either finds a way to blow it or simply not take advantage of the opportunities given to him. He has a very hard time pushing the ball downfield essentially checking out of every play. Over his last four starts, Cassel has thrown just 1 touchdown in comparison to two INT's. In that same stretch, he has only been able to go over 200 yards passing just one time while staying under 100 yards passing on another occasion. Dez Bryant has become a boom/bust WR3 for fantasy purposes since Cassel has taken over. Over his last four games, he has reception totals of 4/3/2/1. The Cowboys strength is their running game. The Jets are the toughest rush defense in the league allowing a league low 78.9 YPG and a league low two rushing TD's thus far. The Jets looks like a very strong DFS play this week. As the 7th most expensive D/ST selection, I think they could have the best outcome.
2. Seattle Seahawks ($4200)
Cleveland 43
@ Seattle -14
Two things are happening here, the Hawks are playing their best football to date and the Browns are one again being flushed down the toilet. The Browns are projected for a week low of 14.5 points. I don't remember seeing a team total quite this low before. The Seahawks only allowed one touchdown over the last two weeks, both games they held their opponent under 10 points. Cleveland comes in with young quarterback Johnny Manziel at the helm. He hasn't played terribly but is still young and is very thin at the WR position. Brian Hartline went out last week leaving Manziel with an undersized Travis Benjamin (Richard Sherman is not undersized and completely shut down Antonio Brown a couple weeks ago) and Gary Barnidge as his top two passing options. The Browns are going to struggle mightily in Seattle this week. Look for another blow out in Seattle with the Seahawks ending on top in a 30-6 type game.
3. Cincinatti ($3400)
Cincinatti -3.5
San Francisco 42
The Bengals come in with 34 sacks on the season while just last week Gabbert was sacked an astonishing NINE times. If you remember his days back in Jacksonville, Gabbert struggled against a pass rush. Once the pressure got in his head, he simply fell apart. This trend seems to be rearing it's ugly head. If Gabbert starts seeing ghosts, the game could get away from him once again. Gabbert has not gone over 200 yards in either of his last two games. The Bengals have a +125 point differential whereas the 49ers are -127. For those of you keeping track at home, the combined point differential here is an amazing 252 points. The 49ers are definitely better at home though I'm not sure it matters in this affair. Look for the Bengals to now only win but easily cover the number as they continue their push for top seeding in the AFC. The Bengals check off 3/4 items from our cheat sheet and should be considered in all fantasy formats.
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