Thursday, December 3, 2015

Week 13 D/ST Plays

The Daily Fantasy Minute:  Where DFS advice is always free

There are a few good rules of thumb when considering a D/ST in any format.


1.  Low Vegas Point Total
2.  Home Team
3.  Facing A New/Inexperienced QB
4.  Favorite in Vegas

You don't have to check off each one of these bullet points, it's just a good place to start when considering your selection.

Since the line constantly changes throughout the week, I am going to use the opening Vegas line as our baseline.

1.  Washington ($2300)
Dallas 42
Washington -3
It just so happens, Washington puts a check mark next to each of our rules to follow.  That doesn't happen very happen.  The fact they are the 4th cheapest D/ST on the DK board is just gravy.  We all know Dallas didn't win a single game when Romo was out previously in the season.  Washington is actually leading the division right now looking to create some separation between themselves and the Giants.  This game has the second lowest total on the day at 42.  Fire up the Washington D/ST with confidence, save your money, and gladly spend it elsewhere.

2.  New England ($3400)
New England -13
Philadelphia 48.5
The Patriots do check off two items from our cheat sheet.  While this game has a very high total (Carolina/NO only one higher), the Patriots being such a heavy favorite at home weighs heavy here.  Of the 48.5 point total, the Eagles are only projected to score 17.5 of those points (If you would like to know how I came to that number, just ask).  The Patriots have not lost two games in a row dating back to 2012 which covers a 56 game stretch.   If the Eagles continue to slip into free fall mode, this game could really get ugly.  Chip Kelly is thought to be out of Philadelphia by years end and it doesn't feel like this team is playing for much right now.

3.  Cincinnati ($3400)
Cincinnati -7.5
Cleveland 43.5
Really, the only thing missing here is Cincinnati playing on the road.  Otherwise, this has dream match up written all over it.  The poor Browns will be starting Austin Davis who believe it or not is a very aggressive passer.  Last year in limited action, Davis threw 12 TD's to his 9 INT's.  Not really the ratio we're going for.  The Browns are projected for 18 points in the home divisional game.  Usually, you would prefer to shy away from a road team in a divisional match up.  It doesn't bother me here.  The Bengals are a far superior team and have forced 6 INT's over the last three weeks.  They check off enough boxes for me to feel quite comfortable with them.

Follow me on Twitter @Brian_Eilering
E-Mail: Br_Eilering@yahoo.com

No comments:

Post a Comment