Sunday, January 24, 2016
Running Back - Jordan Howard - Indiana
Jordan Howard - RB Indiana
6'1" 230
Howard has very good size for the position. He runs well between the tackles and is not easily brought down by arm tackles. He will pick up the blitz (1:15 in the clip) and catch the screen allowing him to play on all three downs. He was limited in passing situations at Indiana but did show the ability. He does not have blazing speed, but often will get past the first line of defense with his strength. He does not shy away from contact, he will make the secondary pay for the collision. He will put his foot in the ground and make a strong initial cut. He is extremely strong constantly breaking arm tackles. NFL defenses will certainly be harder to get through, but he shows a strong desire to keep his legs moving and keep the play going. He shows patience waiting for the hole to open up. He plays strong in short yardage and goal line situations.
Best Comparison: Think Chris Ivory (6'0" 222 lbs). Ivory is similar in size and running ability. Ivory is a violent runner excelling between the tackles but can stretch the run out as well.
Saturday, January 23, 2016
Wide Receiver - Corey Coleman - Baylor
Corey Coleman - WR Baylor
5'11" 190 lbs
Coleman does his most dangerous work on the outside running vertical routes. 1:40 into the clip, you will see his speed as he breaks away from the defender, catch the deep ball, and finish the play with a touchdown. He has the speed to stretch the field forcing additional help from the opposing teams secondary. He lacks the ideal size to develop into a true #1 WR but is superbly dangerous as the true deep threat. His quickness would make him a great slot receiver though he has shown some uncertainty about going across the middle at times. He has a ton of John Brown qualities to his game. John Brown does a great job of complimenting both Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd. Coleman seems to fit that same mold as takes his game to the NFL.
Wide Receiver - Tyler Boyd - Pittsburgh
Tyler Boyd - WR Pittsburgh
6'2" 200lbs
Boyd is another tall thin receiver. Boyd has a natural instinct to high point the ball and a strong desire to catch it! He catches the ball well in traffic and with defenders draped all over him. He has the speed to slice through the defense and take it to the house. He has tons of athletic and leaping ability. Roughly, 1:40 into the clip, you will see his athletic ability leaping over the defender in full stride during a punt return. He shows his ability to be physical while fighting for the ball. He was consistently double covered yet still had 91 receptions his Junior year at Pittsburgh. Boyd needs to add some weight through muscle mass so he is not pushed around by opposing DBs'. There will comparables to fellow Pitt Panther Larry Fitzgerald over the coming months. Boyd is leaner than Fitzgerald but does have many of the other physical traits.
Wide Receiver - Josh Doctson - TCU
Josh Doctson - WR TCU
6'3" 195 lbs
Doctson is a little thin but will easily add some weight to his frame. Doctson wants the football! He has great timing and continues to high point the ball over defenders. One of his first catches (40 seconds into clip) in this highlight package, you will see a perfect example of his timing. He catches the ball very well in traffic while using his body to shield the defenders. Doctson wins most of the 50/50 balls thrown his way. He creates nice separation in college, not sure if he is physical enough for similar results in NFL. He never quits on the play often finding open spots on the field after the play breaks down. He has nice speed to get behind defenses. His leaping ability makes for a very wide and tall catching radius and a tremendous target for any quarterback. He is very quick in/out of his breaks.
Overview: Doctson has the look and feel of a true #1 WR. He will need to add some weight, but I prefer him over Ole Miss WR Laquan Treadwell and OSU WR Michael Thomas. I would rank him as my top wideout in this class.
Friday, January 22, 2016
Running Back - Alex Collins - Arkansas
Alex Collins - RB Arkansas
5'11" 218 lbs
Alex Collins has great between the tackles abilities. He is powerful through the hole and does not stop on the first contact. His feet are very quick as he is making his cuts. He has many similarities to Isiah Crowell from UGA. Strong inside runner with limited catching ability. Collins could become a touchdown machine given the right opportunity. At the 1:05 mark of the video, you will see his perfect between the tackles running that results in another touchdown. Has the ability to get to edge in college, may not get there in the NFL. Looks like a two down RB at the next level.
Upcoming Rookie Class
Looking ahead to the 2016 NFL season, let's take a look at the top players at each of the skill positions. I will continue adding players to the blog as time allows. Here is a good start as we inch closer to the draft.
Running Backs
Ezekiel Elliot - RB Ohio State University
6'1" 225
Tremendous top end speed. Was able to get to the edge and capitalize. Nice between the tackles but I was unable to see his ability to shake off the first defender. I want to see what he can do after initial contact. Very nice runner with serious NFL talent. He looks best served to join an offense employing the zone blocking scheme.
Derrick Henry - RB Alabama
6'2" 240 lbs
College players seem to bounce off of him. He is one cut and go, runner. Not overly elusive in the open field but a true load to bring down. He does not have elite speed but his size may make up for it. He does have a Brandon Jacobs feel to him. Unfortunately, it is easy to compare him to Eddie Lacy only because of his already large size. If he gets off his diet regimen, his weight could really come off the rails. It takes Henry a bit of time to get his full head of steam going making a stop and go running an impossibility. I am not convinced he has the physical tools to become an elite NFL RB. He may turn into a strong GL or short yardage back. He was limited in the passing role at Alabama.
Devontae Booker - RB Utah
5'10" 208 lbs
Booker is slightly undersized but has similar physical traits as Doug Martin (5'9" 215 lbs) did when he came out of Boise State. He also plays similar to Martin where he isn't afraid to go between the tackles and catches the ball extremely well out of the backfield catching 80 balls for 624 yards in his final two years at Utah. His best game at Utah came where he piled up 222 yards rushing and 2 TD's against California. Booker has some NFL tools and could make a very nice NFL RB given the right opportunity and system.
Kenneth Dixon - RB La Tech
5'10" 213 lbs
Dixon finishes every run the same way he starts them...strong. He has a flash of Chris Ivory to him in the fact that he never gives up until the play is over. Dixon also has a nice set of hands totaling 64 catches, 852 yards, and 13 touchdowns through the air over his final two years at La Tech. Due to the physical nature of his play, he may he may have longevity concerns.
Quarterbacks
Carson Wentz - QB North Dakota State
6'6" 235
Super tall kid with a pretty nice arm. Pretty athletic, I saw a couple runs that were relatively impressive for a kid that size. Ran some read option and also took snaps from the shotgun. He has very nice touch on the ball when needed. Doesn't unnecessarily throw the ball too hard. Wentz also finished second on the team in rushing with 642 yards on the ground. Played WR in HS. Injured throwing wrist late in the season. Could be the first quarterback taken. Has some Ben Roethlisberger traits, much thinner.
Jared Goff - QB California
6'4" 205
He is a little thin but does throw a very nice ball. His delivery seemed quick to me which is a good thing when he starts processing the NFL defenses. He showed nice touch on the ball when necessary but could zing it in as well. He goes through his reads very fast, seemingly too fast at times. He will not be mistaken for Michael Vick. He is just athletic enough to escape the pocket but don't look for many 20+ yard runs. Maybe closer to Russell Wilson type speed.
Paxton Lynch - QB Memphis
6'6" 225
Lynch is a very big athletic quarterback. He ran the spread at Memphis so his numbers could be deceiving. He is very mobile and uses his legs well. It is hard to tell if his talents will translate to the NFL. Many spread quarterbacks have not panned out but Lynch has a different physical skill set than most from this type of system.
Connor Cook - QB Michigan State
6'4" 220
There are tons of similarities between Connor Cook and Kirk Cousins. You will hear it a million times between now and the end of time. They both went to MSU, are mobile, occasionally accurate, will force bad throws, and the same size. Sometimes comparing QB's is too easy. In this case, I think it is right on point.
Wide Receivers
Laquon Treadwell - WR Ole Miss
6'2" 210
I think a lot of people are going to fall in love with this kids size. I just didn't see anything that blew me away. He does not have amazing speed, but that is not required to be an NFL WR. It certainly does help to become an elite NFL WR. His lack of top end speed will hinder him from a route tree point of view. Will not have tons of opportunities down the field. Not tremendous in the open field, but has great hands. Will have a lot of catches, might make a good PPR type WR.
Michael Thomas - WR Ohio State
6'3" 210
Thomas is a big physical kid that wants to catch the football. Lacks elite level speed but makes up for it in his size. Will be a very nice possession receiver and red zone threat. Ideal size and strength for those short yardage looks.
Will Fuller - WR Notre Dame
6'0" 180
Speed, speed, and more speed. Fuller has the ability to take the top off any defense. Very few college DB's had the speed to stay with Fuller. He has some TY Hilton to his game, but Hilton makes more defenders miss in open spaces. I don't see him as a WR1 for any offense but will make a nice complementary piece helping open up the field. He might run a sub 4.4 at the combine. He finds himself behind defenses over and over again.
Running Backs
Ezekiel Elliot - RB Ohio State University
6'1" 225
Tremendous top end speed. Was able to get to the edge and capitalize. Nice between the tackles but I was unable to see his ability to shake off the first defender. I want to see what he can do after initial contact. Very nice runner with serious NFL talent. He looks best served to join an offense employing the zone blocking scheme.
Derrick Henry - RB Alabama
6'2" 240 lbs
College players seem to bounce off of him. He is one cut and go, runner. Not overly elusive in the open field but a true load to bring down. He does not have elite speed but his size may make up for it. He does have a Brandon Jacobs feel to him. Unfortunately, it is easy to compare him to Eddie Lacy only because of his already large size. If he gets off his diet regimen, his weight could really come off the rails. It takes Henry a bit of time to get his full head of steam going making a stop and go running an impossibility. I am not convinced he has the physical tools to become an elite NFL RB. He may turn into a strong GL or short yardage back. He was limited in the passing role at Alabama.
Devontae Booker - RB Utah
5'10" 208 lbs
Booker is slightly undersized but has similar physical traits as Doug Martin (5'9" 215 lbs) did when he came out of Boise State. He also plays similar to Martin where he isn't afraid to go between the tackles and catches the ball extremely well out of the backfield catching 80 balls for 624 yards in his final two years at Utah. His best game at Utah came where he piled up 222 yards rushing and 2 TD's against California. Booker has some NFL tools and could make a very nice NFL RB given the right opportunity and system.
Kenneth Dixon - RB La Tech
5'10" 213 lbs
Dixon finishes every run the same way he starts them...strong. He has a flash of Chris Ivory to him in the fact that he never gives up until the play is over. Dixon also has a nice set of hands totaling 64 catches, 852 yards, and 13 touchdowns through the air over his final two years at La Tech. Due to the physical nature of his play, he may he may have longevity concerns.
Quarterbacks
Carson Wentz - QB North Dakota State
6'6" 235
Super tall kid with a pretty nice arm. Pretty athletic, I saw a couple runs that were relatively impressive for a kid that size. Ran some read option and also took snaps from the shotgun. He has very nice touch on the ball when needed. Doesn't unnecessarily throw the ball too hard. Wentz also finished second on the team in rushing with 642 yards on the ground. Played WR in HS. Injured throwing wrist late in the season. Could be the first quarterback taken. Has some Ben Roethlisberger traits, much thinner.
Jared Goff - QB California
6'4" 205
He is a little thin but does throw a very nice ball. His delivery seemed quick to me which is a good thing when he starts processing the NFL defenses. He showed nice touch on the ball when necessary but could zing it in as well. He goes through his reads very fast, seemingly too fast at times. He will not be mistaken for Michael Vick. He is just athletic enough to escape the pocket but don't look for many 20+ yard runs. Maybe closer to Russell Wilson type speed.
Paxton Lynch - QB Memphis
6'6" 225
Lynch is a very big athletic quarterback. He ran the spread at Memphis so his numbers could be deceiving. He is very mobile and uses his legs well. It is hard to tell if his talents will translate to the NFL. Many spread quarterbacks have not panned out but Lynch has a different physical skill set than most from this type of system.
Connor Cook - QB Michigan State
6'4" 220
There are tons of similarities between Connor Cook and Kirk Cousins. You will hear it a million times between now and the end of time. They both went to MSU, are mobile, occasionally accurate, will force bad throws, and the same size. Sometimes comparing QB's is too easy. In this case, I think it is right on point.
Wide Receivers
Laquon Treadwell - WR Ole Miss
6'2" 210
I think a lot of people are going to fall in love with this kids size. I just didn't see anything that blew me away. He does not have amazing speed, but that is not required to be an NFL WR. It certainly does help to become an elite NFL WR. His lack of top end speed will hinder him from a route tree point of view. Will not have tons of opportunities down the field. Not tremendous in the open field, but has great hands. Will have a lot of catches, might make a good PPR type WR.
Michael Thomas - WR Ohio State
6'3" 210
Thomas is a big physical kid that wants to catch the football. Lacks elite level speed but makes up for it in his size. Will be a very nice possession receiver and red zone threat. Ideal size and strength for those short yardage looks.
Will Fuller - WR Notre Dame
6'0" 180
Speed, speed, and more speed. Fuller has the ability to take the top off any defense. Very few college DB's had the speed to stay with Fuller. He has some TY Hilton to his game, but Hilton makes more defenders miss in open spaces. I don't see him as a WR1 for any offense but will make a nice complementary piece helping open up the field. He might run a sub 4.4 at the combine. He finds himself behind defenses over and over again.
Thursday, January 21, 2016
DFM Moving Forward
There are only four teams left meaning there are very few players to select from for DFS. Your margin for error with so few players is razor thin. If you want to make a lineup or two and try to hit a homerun ball, go for it. Just know, your percentages of winning any real kind of money is very slim.
I have gained a ton of readers over the last few months. I GREATLY appreciate each and every one of you. The only way to keep your loyalty is to keep the quality of my work up. I don't feel like spending time on four teams for DFS produces quality work.
Instead of breaking down the last two rounds of the NFL playoffs, I will spend my time more wisely looking ahead to the 2016 season for fantasy purposes.
I have been widely successful in all aspects of fantasy football over the last ten years. I have played in nearly every format imaginable. I am going to take the next couple weeks digging into theories and players for your upcoming fantasy season. I will be personally starting a dynasty league and while I spend my time researching for the new league I am entering, I will report back to you guys my findings.
Future Articles
1. Rookie Breakdown - Looking ahead to the upcoming NFL draft.
2. Biggest mistakes from 2015 - Most common mistakes we made and how to avoid them in 2016.
3. New HC and OC around the league - Coaching changes will surely affect the FF landscape.
4. Sleepers for 2016 - Some players that made nice contributions and could blow up for 2016.
These are just a few of the topics I will be covering in the coming weeks. I am also in the process of putting together a podcast. I am really looking to grow The Daily Fantasy Minute and I again thank you all for helping me make it possible.
Suggestions are welcome, I wouldn't turn away a sponsor or two either.
Br_Eilering@yahoo.com
Tweet me @Brian_Eilering
I have gained a ton of readers over the last few months. I GREATLY appreciate each and every one of you. The only way to keep your loyalty is to keep the quality of my work up. I don't feel like spending time on four teams for DFS produces quality work.
Instead of breaking down the last two rounds of the NFL playoffs, I will spend my time more wisely looking ahead to the 2016 season for fantasy purposes.
I have been widely successful in all aspects of fantasy football over the last ten years. I have played in nearly every format imaginable. I am going to take the next couple weeks digging into theories and players for your upcoming fantasy season. I will be personally starting a dynasty league and while I spend my time researching for the new league I am entering, I will report back to you guys my findings.
Future Articles
1. Rookie Breakdown - Looking ahead to the upcoming NFL draft.
2. Biggest mistakes from 2015 - Most common mistakes we made and how to avoid them in 2016.
3. New HC and OC around the league - Coaching changes will surely affect the FF landscape.
4. Sleepers for 2016 - Some players that made nice contributions and could blow up for 2016.
These are just a few of the topics I will be covering in the coming weeks. I am also in the process of putting together a podcast. I am really looking to grow The Daily Fantasy Minute and I again thank you all for helping me make it possible.
Suggestions are welcome, I wouldn't turn away a sponsor or two either.
Br_Eilering@yahoo.com
Tweet me @Brian_Eilering
Friday, January 15, 2016
Divisional Round TE Plays
The TE position is turning out very strange. I began this column last night as the news came across the wire that Rob Gronkowski received pain-killing injections in his knee. I had to re-think some things.
There are several ways to piece your DFS puzzle together to include Gronkowski. If you do so, I would pay very close attention to the news cycle. Last week, those who put Marshawn Lynch in their lineups and did not watch the news cycle lost out on valuable points.
I traditionally do not write about Gronkowski because I would never argue with you for using the best TE in football. This week is different due to the lack of options at the position.
1. Rob Gronkowski ($7500)
Gronk is the clear cut favorite in my book, before the injury. Now, his status makes me seriously reconsider using someone else. Gronk is $600 more than Greg Olsen. Gronk is the biggest mismatch for any defense to defend. His size/strength/speed combination make it nearly impossible for opposing teams to counter. If Gronk is healthy, a multiple-TD performance is well within reach. The Chiefs do have one of the best defenses in the NFL, but covering Gronk is a task few have been able to conquer. I have Gronk in one of my lineups, but again I will be paying very close attention to the news cycle. I will update as the weekend progresses.
2. Greg Olsen ($6900)
Olsen and Gronk are really the only two TE's to consider in my book. Olsen had 72 fewer yards than Gronk on the season but did have four fewer touchdowns. The last time these two teams faced, Olsen posted a very strong 7/131/1 stat line. I do believe Cam Newton built some more chemistry with his spotty WR corp over the course of the season. The fact is, they are simply either too young or not overly talented. Olsen has proven to be an extremely reliable target throughout his career. When Newton needs to move the sticks, look for him to rely on his own legs or Olsen when it matters most. Olsen had three 100+ yard games this season and could easily be in for another on in the Divisional Round.
Other Notes:
Heath Miller ($3200): I think Miller makes a decent cash game option, but his upside is extremely limited. It looks more like Roethlisberger will play but we still do not know how effective he will be. I fear a major drop off from the Steelers offense against the best defense in the NFL.
Travis Kelce ($5100): Kelce has the physical tools to rank with the top two TE's this week. The issue is, Jeremy Maclin. I do not believe Maclin will be at full strength. That leaves Kelce as the Chiefs most dangerous option on offense. I would anticipate the Patriots to make Kelce their main focus on defense. Bill Belichick makes a point of eliminating the opposing team's most dangerous weapon. With Maclin less than 100%, Kelce is that guy.
Richard Rodgers ($4000): I can see some upside for Rodgers this weekend. The top two WR's for the Packers will have a tough day. There may be some opportunities for Rodgers and Abbrederis for some work on the underneath routes. Rodgers makes a nice red zone target and could haul in a touchdown or two.
Divisional Round WR Plays
I will answer any and all DFS/fantasy football questions.
Tweet me @Brian_Eilering
Email me Br_Eilering@yahoo.com
There are several ways to piece your DFS puzzle together to include Gronkowski. If you do so, I would pay very close attention to the news cycle. Last week, those who put Marshawn Lynch in their lineups and did not watch the news cycle lost out on valuable points.
I traditionally do not write about Gronkowski because I would never argue with you for using the best TE in football. This week is different due to the lack of options at the position.
1. Rob Gronkowski ($7500)Gronk is the clear cut favorite in my book, before the injury. Now, his status makes me seriously reconsider using someone else. Gronk is $600 more than Greg Olsen. Gronk is the biggest mismatch for any defense to defend. His size/strength/speed combination make it nearly impossible for opposing teams to counter. If Gronk is healthy, a multiple-TD performance is well within reach. The Chiefs do have one of the best defenses in the NFL, but covering Gronk is a task few have been able to conquer. I have Gronk in one of my lineups, but again I will be paying very close attention to the news cycle. I will update as the weekend progresses.
2. Greg Olsen ($6900)
Olsen and Gronk are really the only two TE's to consider in my book. Olsen had 72 fewer yards than Gronk on the season but did have four fewer touchdowns. The last time these two teams faced, Olsen posted a very strong 7/131/1 stat line. I do believe Cam Newton built some more chemistry with his spotty WR corp over the course of the season. The fact is, they are simply either too young or not overly talented. Olsen has proven to be an extremely reliable target throughout his career. When Newton needs to move the sticks, look for him to rely on his own legs or Olsen when it matters most. Olsen had three 100+ yard games this season and could easily be in for another on in the Divisional Round.
Other Notes:
Heath Miller ($3200): I think Miller makes a decent cash game option, but his upside is extremely limited. It looks more like Roethlisberger will play but we still do not know how effective he will be. I fear a major drop off from the Steelers offense against the best defense in the NFL.
Travis Kelce ($5100): Kelce has the physical tools to rank with the top two TE's this week. The issue is, Jeremy Maclin. I do not believe Maclin will be at full strength. That leaves Kelce as the Chiefs most dangerous option on offense. I would anticipate the Patriots to make Kelce their main focus on defense. Bill Belichick makes a point of eliminating the opposing team's most dangerous weapon. With Maclin less than 100%, Kelce is that guy.
Richard Rodgers ($4000): I can see some upside for Rodgers this weekend. The top two WR's for the Packers will have a tough day. There may be some opportunities for Rodgers and Abbrederis for some work on the underneath routes. Rodgers makes a nice red zone target and could haul in a touchdown or two.
Divisional Round WR Plays
I will answer any and all DFS/fantasy football questions.
Tweet me @Brian_Eilering
Email me Br_Eilering@yahoo.com
Thursday, January 14, 2016
Divisional Round RB Plays
Last week, there was not a high priced running back I remotely considered for DFS in the Wild Card Rounds. Here we are in the Divisional Round and my tune has drastically changed.
1. David Johnson ($6000)
Green Bay 50
Arizona -7
Believe it or not, David Johnson is the best healthy running back left in the playoffs. I firmly believe he should also be the most expensive, but DraftKings threw us a bone making him the 3rd most expensive at the position. He may be the highest owned player in all of DFS this week. Depending on where the Steelers/Broncos line falls, the Cardinals are the heaviest favorite and rightfully so. David Johnson has all of the tools a head coach is looking for in a premier bell cow RB. He has size (6'1" 224 lbs), speed (4.5 40), and GREAT hands. He is capable of playing all three downs. Johnson has enough power to be used in goal line situations as well as enough burst to get to the edge. Johnson will close in on 25-30 touches through both rushing and receiving. If the Cardinals do in fact get up in the game, Johnson will be used heavily in clock-killing mode late in the game. David Johnson will have a full workload this week. When he receives a full workload (20+ touches), Johnson has averaged 157.3 yards from scrimmage. In those same three games, Johnson also added four combined touchdowns.
It quickly gets more interesting as we move down the list of possible running backs for the Divisional Round.
2. Jonathan Stewart ($5800)
Seattle 44
Carolina -2
The Panthers made a point of getting Stewart healthy for the playoffs. He is now practicing for the first time since Week 14 and does not appear to be limited. Stewart is limited due to the Red Zone rushing attempts of Cam Newton. Stewart did not have a single touchdown until Week 6 of the regular season. Since that point, Stewart has combined for seven touchdowns. Keeping in mind, he did not play Weeks 15-17, all of his touchdown production came through Weeks 6-14. Similar to David Johnson, Stewart is in line for a full day of work this weekend. The Seahawks have been very stout against the run. They held Adrian Peterson to just 45 yards on 23 carries in the Wild Card weekend. The different here is, Cam Newton. Newton adds another layer to the entire offense with his ability to make plays with his legs. The last time these two teams faced off, Stewart ran the ball 20 times for 78 yards while adding two scores on the ground. Projecting another two touchdown performance is hard to do but projecting 20-25 total touches is well within the range of possibilities.
The top two backs are by far the safest two of the week. I was able to work a line-up with both Johnson and Stewart in. The remaining backs have major hurdles due to split playing time, injury concerns, or simply bad match ups.
1. Spencer Ware ($4500): Ware doubled the number of rush attempts compared to Charcandrick West in the Wild Card game. He is priced $1K cheaper than West making him an attractive option. Ware will undoubtedly share some carries with West but we don't know to what extent. The Patriots have not allowed a rushing touchdown since Week 12 where C.J. Anderson popped two in. This is a tough spot for the Chiefs rushing attack but Ware has a price tag to help us consider him in our DFS line-ups this week.
2. Christine Michael ($4600): This play is obviously fully dependent on the health of Marshawn Lynch ($6400). Just like last week, I am not willing to pay the price of admission to see how effective Lynch is this week. Lynch is a strange dude. He could easily play a couple downs and decide it just isn't in the cards today. Michael, on the other hand, has a much cheaper price tag and will certainly go 100% given the opportunity. Lynch was a full-go all week last week right up until he chose not to board the team plane on Friday. I'm not willing to saddle up with him, but if Lynch is another late scratch, I would go all in on Michael once again.
3. Fitzgerald Toussaint ($4200): I told you last week we were simply mining for gold where plenty of gold had been in the past. It worked out well. This week is vastly different for many reasons.
1. Uncertainty of Ben Roethlisberger
2. Uncertainty of Antonio Brown
3. Denver Defense
I do not think we will know how effective Roethlisberger will be until they strap their cleats on and play. Toussaint only cost $4200 but with all of the unknowns in Pittsburgh, this long shot bet just got a lot longer. The Steelers offense may struggle in a bad way this weekend.
4. James White ($5100): I do believe White will be the most productive running back for the Patriots this weekend. The problem is, I don't know if he is worth the $5100 it cost to find out. James White is overpriced by about $1K this week. He should get 5-10 targets out of the backfield but his rushing attempts will once again be limited. For $700 more, I much prefer Jonathan Stewart.
Divisional Round WR DFS Plays
I will answer any and all DFS/fantasy footbal questions
Tweet me @Brian_Eilering
Email me Br_Eilering@yahoo.com
1. David Johnson ($6000)
Green Bay 50
Arizona -7
Believe it or not, David Johnson is the best healthy running back left in the playoffs. I firmly believe he should also be the most expensive, but DraftKings threw us a bone making him the 3rd most expensive at the position. He may be the highest owned player in all of DFS this week. Depending on where the Steelers/Broncos line falls, the Cardinals are the heaviest favorite and rightfully so. David Johnson has all of the tools a head coach is looking for in a premier bell cow RB. He has size (6'1" 224 lbs), speed (4.5 40), and GREAT hands. He is capable of playing all three downs. Johnson has enough power to be used in goal line situations as well as enough burst to get to the edge. Johnson will close in on 25-30 touches through both rushing and receiving. If the Cardinals do in fact get up in the game, Johnson will be used heavily in clock-killing mode late in the game. David Johnson will have a full workload this week. When he receives a full workload (20+ touches), Johnson has averaged 157.3 yards from scrimmage. In those same three games, Johnson also added four combined touchdowns.
It quickly gets more interesting as we move down the list of possible running backs for the Divisional Round.
2. Jonathan Stewart ($5800)
Seattle 44
Carolina -2
The Panthers made a point of getting Stewart healthy for the playoffs. He is now practicing for the first time since Week 14 and does not appear to be limited. Stewart is limited due to the Red Zone rushing attempts of Cam Newton. Stewart did not have a single touchdown until Week 6 of the regular season. Since that point, Stewart has combined for seven touchdowns. Keeping in mind, he did not play Weeks 15-17, all of his touchdown production came through Weeks 6-14. Similar to David Johnson, Stewart is in line for a full day of work this weekend. The Seahawks have been very stout against the run. They held Adrian Peterson to just 45 yards on 23 carries in the Wild Card weekend. The different here is, Cam Newton. Newton adds another layer to the entire offense with his ability to make plays with his legs. The last time these two teams faced off, Stewart ran the ball 20 times for 78 yards while adding two scores on the ground. Projecting another two touchdown performance is hard to do but projecting 20-25 total touches is well within the range of possibilities.
The top two backs are by far the safest two of the week. I was able to work a line-up with both Johnson and Stewart in. The remaining backs have major hurdles due to split playing time, injury concerns, or simply bad match ups.
1. Spencer Ware ($4500): Ware doubled the number of rush attempts compared to Charcandrick West in the Wild Card game. He is priced $1K cheaper than West making him an attractive option. Ware will undoubtedly share some carries with West but we don't know to what extent. The Patriots have not allowed a rushing touchdown since Week 12 where C.J. Anderson popped two in. This is a tough spot for the Chiefs rushing attack but Ware has a price tag to help us consider him in our DFS line-ups this week.
2. Christine Michael ($4600): This play is obviously fully dependent on the health of Marshawn Lynch ($6400). Just like last week, I am not willing to pay the price of admission to see how effective Lynch is this week. Lynch is a strange dude. He could easily play a couple downs and decide it just isn't in the cards today. Michael, on the other hand, has a much cheaper price tag and will certainly go 100% given the opportunity. Lynch was a full-go all week last week right up until he chose not to board the team plane on Friday. I'm not willing to saddle up with him, but if Lynch is another late scratch, I would go all in on Michael once again.
3. Fitzgerald Toussaint ($4200): I told you last week we were simply mining for gold where plenty of gold had been in the past. It worked out well. This week is vastly different for many reasons.
1. Uncertainty of Ben Roethlisberger
2. Uncertainty of Antonio Brown
3. Denver Defense
I do not think we will know how effective Roethlisberger will be until they strap their cleats on and play. Toussaint only cost $4200 but with all of the unknowns in Pittsburgh, this long shot bet just got a lot longer. The Steelers offense may struggle in a bad way this weekend.
4. James White ($5100): I do believe White will be the most productive running back for the Patriots this weekend. The problem is, I don't know if he is worth the $5100 it cost to find out. James White is overpriced by about $1K this week. He should get 5-10 targets out of the backfield but his rushing attempts will once again be limited. For $700 more, I much prefer Jonathan Stewart.
Divisional Round WR DFS Plays
I will answer any and all DFS/fantasy footbal questions
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Divisional Round WR Plays
The injury to Antonio Brown will make us pause for a moment. He is once again the highest priced WR, but he now has the most uncertainty. The "good" news is with this being a concussion if he does get cleared to play he will be 100%. If it were a leg issue, you would not know the severity of the injury until the game started.
This is a strange week for the WR position. There is a massive gap between Brown ($9800) and the next highest WR, Edelman ($7100).
If I were ranking my WR's this week, without taking price into consideration, I would have Michael Floyd as my top wideout. The interesting thing is, he is the 12th most expensive WR this week at $5100. Floyd is not quite the household name like Antonio Brown so I do not believe his ownership will be too high.
1. Michael Floyd ($5100)
Green Bay 50
Arizona -7
For those of you that have read my column, my love affair with Floyd goes back to the beginning of the season (well, really his rookie campaign). Floyd looks and acts the part of a true #1 WR and I believe that is his future role with this franchise. He is due a lot of money this year and I believe the Cardinals would be making a mistake by letting him walk. Floyd piled up 100-yard games for the Cardinals this year having five in the last eight games of the season. I would not consider two of those weeks, one he was hurt, the other was Week 17. As Larry Fitzgerald puts the finishing touches on his HOF career, Floyd continues to make his pitch as Carson Palmer's new favorite target. Sam Shields once again looks like he will be a no-go this weekend. With Shields out, the Packers will be forced to roll coverage advancing the chances for Floyd to have a big game. Michael Floyd will be a tent pole of mine for the Divisional Round games in DFS.
2. Demaryius Thomas ($7000)
Pittsburgh -
Denver -
Demaryius Thomas has some of the most remarkable raw skills I have ever seen at the WR position. When his head is on straight and he is focussed, Thomas is the prototypical #1 WR that will light up the scoreboard for 165/2. He will then follow up those moments up with games like Week 12 vs the Patriots where he was only able to haul one of 13 targets in. There is a good chance Thomas is matched up with Antwon Blake, PFF's 115th (out of 119) ranked DB. If that is the case, Manning will take advantage of this match up the best he can. The problem is, the best Manning has to offer right now falls somewhere between Landry Jones and Brian Hoyer. His mental capacity is performing just fine, his arm strength simply does not match up with what his mind/eyes sees. It would be a nice story for Manning to have a couple nice playoff games mentally erasing his Week 10 disastrous performance which ultimately got him benched for Brock Osweiler.
3. Julian Edelman ($7100)
Kansas City 42.5
New England -5
Reports coming in indicate Edelman is running at full speed during practice. He reportedly will be wearing a protective shoe (steel plated) but it is not believed to slow him down. He has not played since Week 10 but did lead the team in targets before the injury set him back. Brady has had a hard time finding a dependable target outside of Gronkowski since Edelman got injured. Assuming Brady/Edelman were able to rekindle their connection over the extra long break the Patriots earned, Edelman could easily be in for a double-digit target/reception day. The weather looks like it could be tricky this weekend in Foxboro with wind and rain, but I would count on Brady to lean on his experience in these situations here. I am not convinced Brady has a monster day. I do like Edelman in this match up. The entire Chiefs secondary is quite strong, they may decide to double up Gronkowski leaving their corners in man. In that event, Edelman is certainly quick enough to find the holes in the defense he has made his living doing.
4. Doug Baldwin ($6800)
Seattle 43.5
Carolina -2.5
Essentially, all of the best defenses in the NFL made the playoffs. You have to pick your poison in terms of match ups. The Seahawks move Doug Baldwin all over the field. Conversely, the Panthers typically line their top DB, Josh Norman, on a side. Both Odell Beckham and Julio Jones had nice success against the Panthers and both were moved all over the field in those games. Both players were used extensively in the slot as their offenses looked to create space for their top playmakers. Doug Baldwin is used similarly. I expect Baldwin to once again be moved attempting to not allow Josh Norman to shadow him. If the Seahawks are successful in this chess match, look for Baldwin to benefit from the coverage. Baldwin has caught 12 of his 14 touchdowns over the last eight weeks. There is clearly a trust factor between him and Russell and I fully anticipate this trend to continue as we head into the Divisional Round.
Now that I have put the top 4 plays out for consumption, let's take a look at some less expensive options that will help fill out our rosters.
1. Chris Conley ($3000)/Albert Wilson ($3800): As of 8:15 Thursday morning, the status of Jeremy Maclin is unknown. It was first thought he tore his ACL. After further examination, it was later determined to be a more optimistic high ankle sprain. High ankle sprains are also a very scary injury. These injuries will usually sideline a player for several weeks during a regular NFL season. In the event Maclin does not play, I fully expect the Patriots to do whatever they have to do to take Travis Kelce out of the game. If that is the case, Conley may have opportunities to make an impact in the playoffs his rookie season. Jeremy Maclin missed Week 7 of the regular season due to a concussion. In that week, Chris Conley and Albert Wilson both saw increased targets. Conley converted seven targets into a 6/63/1 stat line. Conley has the physical tools (6'2"/213 lbs 4.35/40) to make a strong NFL WR. We are looking for a difference maker in our line-ups, I believe either Chris Conley or Albert Wilson could offer a nice addition to our GPP cards.
2. Tyler Lockett ($4400): It will be interesting to see how the Seahawks move all of their chess pieces. Either Lockett or Baldwin will benefit from not having Josh Norman cover them. Baldwin seems like the more likely beneficiary though Lockett has the speed (4.40 40) and open field ability to break one open. Keep in mind, Lockett touches the ball in the offense as well as on special teams.
3. Jared Abbrederis ($3000): It looks like Davante Adams suffered a sprained MCL in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs. That will likely move Randall Cobb to the outside leaving Abbrederis to the slot. The Cardinals DB's should have little problems covering the Packers outside WR's in man coverage. That gives Abbrederis opportunities underneath allowing him to possibly pile up some catches.
Divisional Round QB Plays
Follow me on Twitter @Brian_Eilering
Email me Br_Eilering@yahoo.com
This is a strange week for the WR position. There is a massive gap between Brown ($9800) and the next highest WR, Edelman ($7100).
If I were ranking my WR's this week, without taking price into consideration, I would have Michael Floyd as my top wideout. The interesting thing is, he is the 12th most expensive WR this week at $5100. Floyd is not quite the household name like Antonio Brown so I do not believe his ownership will be too high.
1. Michael Floyd ($5100)Green Bay 50
Arizona -7
For those of you that have read my column, my love affair with Floyd goes back to the beginning of the season (well, really his rookie campaign). Floyd looks and acts the part of a true #1 WR and I believe that is his future role with this franchise. He is due a lot of money this year and I believe the Cardinals would be making a mistake by letting him walk. Floyd piled up 100-yard games for the Cardinals this year having five in the last eight games of the season. I would not consider two of those weeks, one he was hurt, the other was Week 17. As Larry Fitzgerald puts the finishing touches on his HOF career, Floyd continues to make his pitch as Carson Palmer's new favorite target. Sam Shields once again looks like he will be a no-go this weekend. With Shields out, the Packers will be forced to roll coverage advancing the chances for Floyd to have a big game. Michael Floyd will be a tent pole of mine for the Divisional Round games in DFS.
2. Demaryius Thomas ($7000)Pittsburgh -
Denver -
Demaryius Thomas has some of the most remarkable raw skills I have ever seen at the WR position. When his head is on straight and he is focussed, Thomas is the prototypical #1 WR that will light up the scoreboard for 165/2. He will then follow up those moments up with games like Week 12 vs the Patriots where he was only able to haul one of 13 targets in. There is a good chance Thomas is matched up with Antwon Blake, PFF's 115th (out of 119) ranked DB. If that is the case, Manning will take advantage of this match up the best he can. The problem is, the best Manning has to offer right now falls somewhere between Landry Jones and Brian Hoyer. His mental capacity is performing just fine, his arm strength simply does not match up with what his mind/eyes sees. It would be a nice story for Manning to have a couple nice playoff games mentally erasing his Week 10 disastrous performance which ultimately got him benched for Brock Osweiler.
3. Julian Edelman ($7100)Kansas City 42.5
New England -5
Reports coming in indicate Edelman is running at full speed during practice. He reportedly will be wearing a protective shoe (steel plated) but it is not believed to slow him down. He has not played since Week 10 but did lead the team in targets before the injury set him back. Brady has had a hard time finding a dependable target outside of Gronkowski since Edelman got injured. Assuming Brady/Edelman were able to rekindle their connection over the extra long break the Patriots earned, Edelman could easily be in for a double-digit target/reception day. The weather looks like it could be tricky this weekend in Foxboro with wind and rain, but I would count on Brady to lean on his experience in these situations here. I am not convinced Brady has a monster day. I do like Edelman in this match up. The entire Chiefs secondary is quite strong, they may decide to double up Gronkowski leaving their corners in man. In that event, Edelman is certainly quick enough to find the holes in the defense he has made his living doing.
4. Doug Baldwin ($6800)Seattle 43.5
Carolina -2.5
Essentially, all of the best defenses in the NFL made the playoffs. You have to pick your poison in terms of match ups. The Seahawks move Doug Baldwin all over the field. Conversely, the Panthers typically line their top DB, Josh Norman, on a side. Both Odell Beckham and Julio Jones had nice success against the Panthers and both were moved all over the field in those games. Both players were used extensively in the slot as their offenses looked to create space for their top playmakers. Doug Baldwin is used similarly. I expect Baldwin to once again be moved attempting to not allow Josh Norman to shadow him. If the Seahawks are successful in this chess match, look for Baldwin to benefit from the coverage. Baldwin has caught 12 of his 14 touchdowns over the last eight weeks. There is clearly a trust factor between him and Russell and I fully anticipate this trend to continue as we head into the Divisional Round.
Now that I have put the top 4 plays out for consumption, let's take a look at some less expensive options that will help fill out our rosters.
1. Chris Conley ($3000)/Albert Wilson ($3800): As of 8:15 Thursday morning, the status of Jeremy Maclin is unknown. It was first thought he tore his ACL. After further examination, it was later determined to be a more optimistic high ankle sprain. High ankle sprains are also a very scary injury. These injuries will usually sideline a player for several weeks during a regular NFL season. In the event Maclin does not play, I fully expect the Patriots to do whatever they have to do to take Travis Kelce out of the game. If that is the case, Conley may have opportunities to make an impact in the playoffs his rookie season. Jeremy Maclin missed Week 7 of the regular season due to a concussion. In that week, Chris Conley and Albert Wilson both saw increased targets. Conley converted seven targets into a 6/63/1 stat line. Conley has the physical tools (6'2"/213 lbs 4.35/40) to make a strong NFL WR. We are looking for a difference maker in our line-ups, I believe either Chris Conley or Albert Wilson could offer a nice addition to our GPP cards.
2. Tyler Lockett ($4400): It will be interesting to see how the Seahawks move all of their chess pieces. Either Lockett or Baldwin will benefit from not having Josh Norman cover them. Baldwin seems like the more likely beneficiary though Lockett has the speed (4.40 40) and open field ability to break one open. Keep in mind, Lockett touches the ball in the offense as well as on special teams.
3. Jared Abbrederis ($3000): It looks like Davante Adams suffered a sprained MCL in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs. That will likely move Randall Cobb to the outside leaving Abbrederis to the slot. The Cardinals DB's should have little problems covering the Packers outside WR's in man coverage. That gives Abbrederis opportunities underneath allowing him to possibly pile up some catches.
Divisional Round QB Plays
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Wednesday, January 13, 2016
Divisional Round QB Plays
The Divisional Round of the NFL playoffs is going to look much different for DFS than the Wild Card Round did. In the Wild Card round, there was simply no reason to spend big at the running back position allowing us to spend more at the WR position. As I initially go through the process, this weekend looks much different.
I will re-iterate what I said last week. You should not be looking to significantly increase your bankroll through tons of cash games. We do not have the same edge as we would in Weeks 1-17. Instead, you should be playing in a couple cash games and play a few more GPP contests than you normally would.
1. Carson Palmer ($6500)
Green Bay 50
Arizona -7
The last time we saw Carson Palmer was two weeks ago vs Seattle. It was quite clear the Cardinals mailed it in for the second half. The reasoning is not really important, the fact is, they did. This game has the highest total on the board this weekend. The Cardinals are the best overall team in the NFL and have the highest team total of the weekend. They have the best running back (hint, hint) and by far the best receiving corp. As it stands right now, the Cardinals are the largest favorites in the eyes of Vegas. I agree 100%. There is a chance Cam Newton ($7500) has as slightly better statistical day than Palmer, but I really like the $1K price reduction here allowing me to spend a little more on other positions.
2. Cam Newton ($7500)
Seattle 43.5
Carolina -2.5
Cam Newton is the definition of a dual-threat QB having a 35/10 TD/INT ratio along with 10 rushing TD's. Newton is able to run one in from just about anywhere on the field. The Seattle defense has played pretty well as of late though Roethlisberger did throw for 456 yards in Week 12 showing some vulnerability to this unit. It looks like the Panthers will be getting Ted Ginn and Jonathan Stewart back from injury giving Newton more options at his disposal. Newton may go under-owned this week because of the low total in the game and playing the Seattle defense. The Seahawks may have a blueprint of sorts with the Falcons holding the Newton and the Panthers to 142 yards passing in Week 16. While Newton did add a rushing score that week, it is the kind of performance you can not afford from the most expensive QB on the board. I again think Cam Newton has the best statistical day though I am not convinced the $1K price different is paid back.
Edit To Add:
One of my trusty readers pointed to the fact I forgot to talk about Russell Wilson. he was right, I did forget.
Russell Wilson: Rumor has it, the issues Wilson had in Wild Card weekend resulted from communication issues in his ear piece. Either way, he consistently looked confused calling many costly time-outs. Wilson will almost certainly have a better day against the Panthers but will likely be heavily owned due to his name value. He cost $300 more than Palmer and I am not convinced his point production will match his price tag. Playing in more GPP contests, I do not see a massive day from Wilson warranting us to put him in our line-ups.
Aaron Rodgers: I hate this match up for the Packers. I fear the Packers WR's will have serious issues with getting open this week. I think Rodgers and company are in for a very long day. The game against the Redskins may have been a mirage.
Ben Roethlisberger: His injury scares the hell out of me. I am not willing to pay up for a quarterback with torn ligaments and sprains in his throwing shoulder. I do believe he will gut this one out but I do not thing he will be nearly as effective as you will need him to be. It is also unknown whether or not Antonio Brown and DeAngelo Williams will be playing.
Peyton Manning: Nope.
Tom Brady: He is a little bit intriguing, but the KC pass rush gives me a major concern. It is believed the Patriots will get Sebastian Vollmer back this week which certainly helps bolster their OL. The weather looks to be cold, rainy, and windy in Foxboro on Sunday. This game has a low scoring 20-17 type of feel to it.
Alex Smith: See Payton Manning
I will answer any and all DFS or fantasy football questions.
Tweet me @Brian_Eilering
Email me Br_Eilering@yahoo.com
I will re-iterate what I said last week. You should not be looking to significantly increase your bankroll through tons of cash games. We do not have the same edge as we would in Weeks 1-17. Instead, you should be playing in a couple cash games and play a few more GPP contests than you normally would.
1. Carson Palmer ($6500)Green Bay 50
Arizona -7
The last time we saw Carson Palmer was two weeks ago vs Seattle. It was quite clear the Cardinals mailed it in for the second half. The reasoning is not really important, the fact is, they did. This game has the highest total on the board this weekend. The Cardinals are the best overall team in the NFL and have the highest team total of the weekend. They have the best running back (hint, hint) and by far the best receiving corp. As it stands right now, the Cardinals are the largest favorites in the eyes of Vegas. I agree 100%. There is a chance Cam Newton ($7500) has as slightly better statistical day than Palmer, but I really like the $1K price reduction here allowing me to spend a little more on other positions.
2. Cam Newton ($7500)Seattle 43.5
Carolina -2.5
Cam Newton is the definition of a dual-threat QB having a 35/10 TD/INT ratio along with 10 rushing TD's. Newton is able to run one in from just about anywhere on the field. The Seattle defense has played pretty well as of late though Roethlisberger did throw for 456 yards in Week 12 showing some vulnerability to this unit. It looks like the Panthers will be getting Ted Ginn and Jonathan Stewart back from injury giving Newton more options at his disposal. Newton may go under-owned this week because of the low total in the game and playing the Seattle defense. The Seahawks may have a blueprint of sorts with the Falcons holding the Newton and the Panthers to 142 yards passing in Week 16. While Newton did add a rushing score that week, it is the kind of performance you can not afford from the most expensive QB on the board. I again think Cam Newton has the best statistical day though I am not convinced the $1K price different is paid back.
Edit To Add:
One of my trusty readers pointed to the fact I forgot to talk about Russell Wilson. he was right, I did forget.
Russell Wilson: Rumor has it, the issues Wilson had in Wild Card weekend resulted from communication issues in his ear piece. Either way, he consistently looked confused calling many costly time-outs. Wilson will almost certainly have a better day against the Panthers but will likely be heavily owned due to his name value. He cost $300 more than Palmer and I am not convinced his point production will match his price tag. Playing in more GPP contests, I do not see a massive day from Wilson warranting us to put him in our line-ups.
Aaron Rodgers: I hate this match up for the Packers. I fear the Packers WR's will have serious issues with getting open this week. I think Rodgers and company are in for a very long day. The game against the Redskins may have been a mirage.
Ben Roethlisberger: His injury scares the hell out of me. I am not willing to pay up for a quarterback with torn ligaments and sprains in his throwing shoulder. I do believe he will gut this one out but I do not thing he will be nearly as effective as you will need him to be. It is also unknown whether or not Antonio Brown and DeAngelo Williams will be playing.
Peyton Manning: Nope.
Tom Brady: He is a little bit intriguing, but the KC pass rush gives me a major concern. It is believed the Patriots will get Sebastian Vollmer back this week which certainly helps bolster their OL. The weather looks to be cold, rainy, and windy in Foxboro on Sunday. This game has a low scoring 20-17 type of feel to it.
Alex Smith: See Payton Manning
I will answer any and all DFS or fantasy football questions.
Tweet me @Brian_Eilering
Email me Br_Eilering@yahoo.com
Tuesday, January 12, 2016
Divisional Round Vegas Lines
Here are the lines as we head into the Divisional Round for the NFL playoffs. There are several players that are still in limbo. I am not sure we will know what to expect from some of these players until game time.
Lines pulled from DonBest.com
Lines pulled from DonBest.com
NFL DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS - Saturday, January 16th | ||||||||||
| Rot | Opener | Team | Time | SC | Westgate | Mirage | Station | Pinnacle | SIA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 301 302 |
45.5
-4.5 |
4:35 PM
|
-
-
|
42.5
-5.0
|
43.0
-5.0
|
43.0
-5.0
|
42.0
-5.0
|
42.0
-5.0
| ||
| 303 304 |
49.5
-7.0 |
8:15 PM
|
-
-
|
50.0
-7.0
|
50.0
-7.5
|
50.0
-7.0
|
50.0
-7.0
|
50.0
-7.0
| ||
NFL DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS - Sunday, January 17th | ||||||||||
| Rot | Opener | Team | Time | SC | Westgate | Mirage | Station | Pinnacle | SIA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 305 306 |
44.0
-2.0 |
1:05 PM
|
-
-
|
43.5
-2.5
|
44.0
-3.0
|
44.0
-3.0
|
44.0
-2.5
|
44.0
-2.5
| ||
| 307 308 |
-
- |
4:40 PM
|
-
-
|
-
-
|
-
-
|
-
PK
|
-
-7.0
|
-
| ||
Saturday, January 9, 2016
Wild Card Line Ups
Instead of emailing a bunch of people individually, I will just post the three different LU's I will be using. I have entered them in several GPP contests and a couple cash game contests. I adjusted them based on the Marhshawn Lynch news. If any additional news breaks, I may adjust again.
GL this weekend.
GL this weekend.
Marshawn Lynch Out
Breaking NewsSurprisingly, Lynch was a sudden scratch. I was not a buyer on him due to his price tag of $6500. His replacement, Christine Michael, has a much lower price of $4400.
What it means for DFS:
Michael is very interesting to me at his price ($4400) and should be considered in all DFS formats. Michael will receive a very heavy workload on a fresh set of legs. He should easily pay dividends to his investors in DFS. I was wary of Marshawn Lynch because of his price and it being his first game back from surgery. I was concerned about his workload. Now that Lynch has been eliminated from the equation, I would not hesitate to use Michael in nearly all line ups.
Friday, January 8, 2016
Wild Card Weekend DFS Strategy
I have been asked many questions by my readers. The most common, what is my line up this week? My answer is, are you playing cash or GPP? I then give the reader my line up based on the answer they give me.
I traditionally follow the response with the following: You should be playing in more cash game contests than GPP contests. The reason being, you have an edge in cash game contests due to the volume of both contestants and player possibilities.
Well, as the NFL enters the playoffs, one of the statistical edges has been wiped from the board. Our DFS theories will have to adjust accordingly.
As I set my regular season DFS line up, I bank on the fact a large majority of the casual DFS contestants will blindly select big name players regardless of their match-ups. The playoffs are much different. With much fewer players to choose from, we also have much fewer match-ups to exploit. That also means much fewer mistakes can be made from the casual DFS player.
What does all of this really mean?
I profess all season long to play 80%-90% of you weekly money in cash games leaving the balance for GPP. The hope is to capitalize on the casual DFS contestant strengthing our bankroll as the season progresses by playing mostly cash games.
Our edge has been considerably reduced in the cash games. These playoff weeks should not be played the same way.
1. I strongly suggest playing fewer contests overall.
2. I would play more GPP contests.
3. Play to have fun, not to grow your bankroll.
4. Play for the HR ball. Everyone will be on Antonio Brown, you will have to hit a HR with another player. Statistically, hitting a HR with a player like Jamison Crowder is far less likely than hitting a double with Antonio Brown. The odds are stacked against you.
I am not suggesting to not use Antonio Brown. I am using him myself. But, so is everyone else. By everyone else following suit, our edge is gone. I will play in a couple 50/50 and double contests, but far less than I typically would any given week of the regular season.
If you have any questions, please don't hesitate to ask.
Email Br_Eilering
Tweet me @Brian_Eilering
I traditionally follow the response with the following: You should be playing in more cash game contests than GPP contests. The reason being, you have an edge in cash game contests due to the volume of both contestants and player possibilities.
Well, as the NFL enters the playoffs, one of the statistical edges has been wiped from the board. Our DFS theories will have to adjust accordingly.
As I set my regular season DFS line up, I bank on the fact a large majority of the casual DFS contestants will blindly select big name players regardless of their match-ups. The playoffs are much different. With much fewer players to choose from, we also have much fewer match-ups to exploit. That also means much fewer mistakes can be made from the casual DFS player.
What does all of this really mean?
I profess all season long to play 80%-90% of you weekly money in cash games leaving the balance for GPP. The hope is to capitalize on the casual DFS contestant strengthing our bankroll as the season progresses by playing mostly cash games.
Our edge has been considerably reduced in the cash games. These playoff weeks should not be played the same way.
1. I strongly suggest playing fewer contests overall.
2. I would play more GPP contests.
3. Play to have fun, not to grow your bankroll.
4. Play for the HR ball. Everyone will be on Antonio Brown, you will have to hit a HR with another player. Statistically, hitting a HR with a player like Jamison Crowder is far less likely than hitting a double with Antonio Brown. The odds are stacked against you.
I am not suggesting to not use Antonio Brown. I am using him myself. But, so is everyone else. By everyone else following suit, our edge is gone. I will play in a couple 50/50 and double contests, but far less than I typically would any given week of the regular season.
If you have any questions, please don't hesitate to ask.
Email Br_Eilering
Tweet me @Brian_Eilering
Thursday, January 7, 2016
Coldest Games Of All Time
I really wanted to see if the weather would affect the running/passing game either way. As I went through each game, I did not see anything significant. The only thing noticeable
was more drops by the WR's. There is a possibility of a few less passing yards due to drops, but again, I was not blown away by any one statistic.
Have fun this weekend! I will keep the updates coming as the weekend closes in.
Wild Card Weekend TE Plays
Much like the rest of the positions, TE's have been greatly thinned out as we enter the WC weekend. And much like the quarterback position, I will not spend time breaking down five different TE's this week. There are really only two TE's that stand out to me.
1. Jordan Reed ($6300)
Green Bay 45
Washington -1
Jordan Reed will cost you $1300 more than Tyler Eifert ($5000). Reed is the best playmaker in the Redskins offense. Jordan Reed has been dominating the target share through Cousins hot streak. Reed has gone over 100 yards in two of the last four weeks and has added five touchdowns during that same span. Since Jordan Reed came into the NFL, the consensus thought was he had elite level talent but could not stay on the field due to health. While he was unable to play a full 16 games this season, Reed was still able to reach 952 yards and 11 touchdowns. Cousins is aware of his playmaking TE and the mismatches he creates. He will continue to use Reed in the middle of the field attempting to open up the long shot play to DeSean Jackson. Reed could easily be in line for a double-digit target/reception type game making him a viable candidate for all cash and GPP line ups in Wild Card weekend.
2. Tyler Eifert ($5000)
Pittsburgh -2.5
Cincinnati 46
Tyler Eifert played in 13 games, one less than Reed, and had 300 fewer yards but two more touchdowns. Eifert was consistently a trusted source inside the red zone. Eifert only played one game with A.J. McCarron, but that was all he needed to get back on track coming back from his concussion. Eifert caught all four targets McCarron threw his way in the regular season finale including a touchdown. Whether Dalton or McCarron plays, Eifert will have his share of targets. His 70% catch rate helps both quarterbacks trust Eifert. He ranks 1st among TE's in three key areas according to FootballOutsiders.com which is why he quickly became one of the elite TE's in the NFL over the course of the 2015 regular season. While I do think Reed has a slightly better day, the price of $5000 makes Eifert a very appealing option this week.
Other Names Of Note:
Heath Miller ($3300): Maybe Ben/Miller know something the rest of the world does not. In the 13 games where the Steelers were not playing the Bengals, Miller averaged 3.07 receptions per game. In the two games, the Steelers did play the Bengals, Miller caught 20 balls for 171 yards. Miller makes a decent sleeper pick this week for a mere $3300.
Kyle Rudolph ($3500): I like Rudolph as a player and I also believe he has a bright future. With that said, the Vikings offense is extremely limited and will remain so throughout the playoffs. His upside is capped by his young play caller, Teddy Bridgewater. Rudolph may be in for a nice 2016, but I am laying off for DFS this week.
Travis Kelce ($4500): Kelce is a natural playmaker at the TE position. He has an amazing size/speed combination, but even with the injuries the Chiefs suffered, he was still limited in this offense. I am not sure when we will see the full potential of Travis Kelce, but I will have to wait until 2016 before I invest in his services.
Wild Card Week RB Plays
I will answer any and all DFS/fantasy football questions.
Tweet me @Brian_Eilering
Email me Br_Eilering@yahoo.com
1. Jordan Reed ($6300)
Green Bay 45
Washington -1
Jordan Reed will cost you $1300 more than Tyler Eifert ($5000). Reed is the best playmaker in the Redskins offense. Jordan Reed has been dominating the target share through Cousins hot streak. Reed has gone over 100 yards in two of the last four weeks and has added five touchdowns during that same span. Since Jordan Reed came into the NFL, the consensus thought was he had elite level talent but could not stay on the field due to health. While he was unable to play a full 16 games this season, Reed was still able to reach 952 yards and 11 touchdowns. Cousins is aware of his playmaking TE and the mismatches he creates. He will continue to use Reed in the middle of the field attempting to open up the long shot play to DeSean Jackson. Reed could easily be in line for a double-digit target/reception type game making him a viable candidate for all cash and GPP line ups in Wild Card weekend.
2. Tyler Eifert ($5000)
Pittsburgh -2.5
Cincinnati 46
Tyler Eifert played in 13 games, one less than Reed, and had 300 fewer yards but two more touchdowns. Eifert was consistently a trusted source inside the red zone. Eifert only played one game with A.J. McCarron, but that was all he needed to get back on track coming back from his concussion. Eifert caught all four targets McCarron threw his way in the regular season finale including a touchdown. Whether Dalton or McCarron plays, Eifert will have his share of targets. His 70% catch rate helps both quarterbacks trust Eifert. He ranks 1st among TE's in three key areas according to FootballOutsiders.com which is why he quickly became one of the elite TE's in the NFL over the course of the 2015 regular season. While I do think Reed has a slightly better day, the price of $5000 makes Eifert a very appealing option this week.
Other Names Of Note:
Heath Miller ($3300): Maybe Ben/Miller know something the rest of the world does not. In the 13 games where the Steelers were not playing the Bengals, Miller averaged 3.07 receptions per game. In the two games, the Steelers did play the Bengals, Miller caught 20 balls for 171 yards. Miller makes a decent sleeper pick this week for a mere $3300.
Kyle Rudolph ($3500): I like Rudolph as a player and I also believe he has a bright future. With that said, the Vikings offense is extremely limited and will remain so throughout the playoffs. His upside is capped by his young play caller, Teddy Bridgewater. Rudolph may be in for a nice 2016, but I am laying off for DFS this week.
Travis Kelce ($4500): Kelce is a natural playmaker at the TE position. He has an amazing size/speed combination, but even with the injuries the Chiefs suffered, he was still limited in this offense. I am not sure when we will see the full potential of Travis Kelce, but I will have to wait until 2016 before I invest in his services.
Wild Card Week RB Plays
I will answer any and all DFS/fantasy football questions.
Tweet me @Brian_Eilering
Email me Br_Eilering@yahoo.com
Wednesday, January 6, 2016
Wild Card Weekend RB Plays
Top Rushing Defenses In NFL (Yardage)
| RK | TEAM | ATT | YDS | YDS/A | LONG | TD | YDS/G |
| 1 | Seattle | 362 | 1304 | 3.6 | 48 | 10 | 81.5 |
| 2 | NY Jets | 373 | 1335 | 3.6 | 45 | 4 | 83.4 |
| 3 | Denver | 408 | 1337 | 3.3 | 48 | 10 | 83.6 |
| 4 | Carolina | 364 | 1415 | 3.9 | 63 | 11 | 88.4 |
| 5 | Pittsburgh | 382 | 1459 | 3.8 | 44 | 6 | 91.2 |
| 6 | Arizona | 374 | 1460 | 3.9 | 52 | 9 | 91.3 |
| 7 | Cincinnati | 344 | 1477 | 4.3 | 69 | 8 | 92.3 |
| 8 | Kansas City | 383 | 1571 | 4.1 | 42 | 7 | 98.2 |
Top Rushing Defenses In NFL (Touchdowns)
| RK | TEAM | ATT | YDS | YDS/A | LONG | TD | YDS/G |
| 1 | NY Jets | 373 | 1335 | 3.6 | 45 | 4 | 83.4 |
| 2 | Pittsburgh | 382 | 1459 | 3.8 | 44 | 6 | 91.2 |
| 3 | Kansas City | 383 | 1571 | 4.1 | 42 | 7 | 98.2 |
| St. Louis | 453 | 1820 | 4 | 47 | 7 | 113.8 | |
| Minnesota | 411 | 1748 | 4.3 | 72 | 7 | 109.3 | |
| 6 | Cincinnati | 344 | 1477 | 4.3 | 69 | 8 | 92.3 |
| New England | 397 | 1580 | 4 | 48 | 8 | 98.8 |
Here are the five top RB's simply sorted by price. The only name I will consider here is DeAngelo Williams though his health is a major concern. I will be shopping from a different rack this week. If you want to see the rack I am shopping from, scroll down a little bit. There might be a player that pops this week from the more expensive group, but I am not willing to pay the price to find out. You are just as likely to get similar production from a player $2-$3K cheaper.
Players I will not be using....
Adrian Peterson ($7300)
Seattle -5.5
Minnesota 41
The Seattle rush defense is the #1 rush defense in the NFL. They have given up a 100+ yard rusher all season. In addition, the Seahawks have only given up a total of five rushing touchdowns to RB's on the season. The only player to have multiple touchdowns was Jonathan Stewart back in Week 6. I am not willing to pay a premium for a 65 yard 0 TD game.
DeAngelo Williams ($7000)
Pittsburgh -2.5
Cincinnati 46
Williams Probably will not play but may have been worth the price of admission. We will need to monitor his health.
UPDATE: Thursday 1/7/2015
DeAngelo Williams (foot) was the only Steelers player to miss practice with an injury. Will Allen given vet's day off.
— Ray Fittipaldo (@rayfitt1) January 7, 2016
UPDATE: Friday 1/8/2015
The #Steelers consider RB DeAngelo Williams (foot) out vs. #Bengals, sources say. If they win, there's a chance he plays next week.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) January 8, 2016
Marshawn Lynch ($6500)Seattle -5.5
Minnesota 41
He is the 3rd most expensive RB this week and has not played football since Week 10. We will assume he is a full go for argument's sake. The Vikings have only given up seven rushing touchdowns to RB's on the season. There is a statistical anomaly in the Vikings rushing defense. His name is Carlos Hyde. His Week 1 168 yards 2 TD day is by far the best day any one RB has had against this Vikings defense. Lynch is still too rich for my blood.
UPDATE: Marshawn Lynch was doungraded to OUT for the WC game.
Chardcandrick West ($5700)
Kansas City -3
Houston 40
The Texans have not allowed a rusher over 53 yards over the last four weeks. Going back to Week 10, they have given up one rushing TD to a RB. James White punched one through on his ONLY carry of the day. The Texans have only allowed two rushers to go over 100 yards through 16 games. In a combined effort, the Texans have only allowed 62 total rushing yards over the last two weeks to five different RB's. That is an average of 31 YPG. This price is still too much for me though we are starting to get closer to the rack I will shop from.
Jeremy Hill ($5000)
Pittsburgh -2.5
Cincinnati 46
The Steelers rank in the top 5 of both yardage and touchdowns given up. The last time these two teams faced off, Hill had 16 yards on just four carries. The Bengals were down early in the game forcing the Bengals to rely more on the pass. Traditionally, when the Bengals are down, they turn to Gio Bernard as he is far superior in the passing game...hint hint.
Here is the group I am choosing from this week.
1. Gio Bernard ($4000)
Pittsburgh -2.5
Cincinnati 46
The usage of Hill/Bernard has been dependent on the game flow. Predicting the game flow is one of the hardest things to do in football. I won't pretend I have a magic eight ball. Instead, let's take a look at the strength of the Steelers defense. Their run defense ranks 5th in yardage and 2nd in touchdowns allowed. Running the ball up the middle would not seem fruitful. Getting Bernard the ball in space and allowing him to make plays seems like the wiser decision. The Steelers secondary has been dreadful making tackles. If the Bengals can successfully get Bernard the ball on the edge through the air, they will have a much higher success rate capitalizing on the Steelers weakness. Bernard only needs 40 yards rushing and 3-4 catches to hit 3x value. That is a more attainable task than relying on Adrian Peterson ($7300) to have to hit 21.9 against the Seahawks defense to reach 3x value. Bernard has the open field ability and top end speed to take nearly any play for a touchdown. He has great HR appeal, making his ceiling comparatively high and his floor pretty high as well. The price of Bernard combined with his pass-catching ability makes him a very strong DFS play for the Wild Card weekend of the NFL playoffs.
2. Matt Jones ($3900)/Alfred Morris ($3600)
Green Bay 45
Washington -1
I would like to recommend Matt Jones here, but the news just came out he is still very limited in practice as I am typing this. Jay Gruden has said, "unless Jones get's healthy quick, he will be the odd man out on Sunday". Assuming Jones is inactive once again due to his hip pointer, Alfred Morris will be the main beneficiary. Morris would take a heavy dose of the early down work, leaving a combination of Pierre Thomas and Chris Thompson to share the passing down work. Morris does not catch the ball very well meaning he will have to get all of his points on the ground. Morris is very capable of rushing the ball 20+ times in a game. He has done so 21 times throughout his career. If Morris can pile up 20+ carries, he can topple 100 yards and a score. Matt Jones is a more attractive DK option due to his pass catching ability. My recommendation will be one of these two backs, we will have to wait and see how Jones practices as the week progresses. Both have a very nice price and both will have the opportunity to score similar DK points compared to the much more expensive backs this week.
UPDATE: Matt Jones remained limited in practice Thursday.
3. Fitzgerald Toussaint ($3900)
Pittsburgh -2.5
Cincinnati 46
UPDATE: DeAngelo Williams is now OUT for the game!
The Steelers are grasping at straws here with DeAngelo Williams now very questionable for the playoff game with their divisional rival. This is purely mining for gold in a mine that has produced tons of it in the past. Toussaint is an unknown talent right now. He was only able to muster 2.0 YPC last week in the absence of Williams. He may absolutely flop, but he can catch the ball making his value a little more appealing. There is a strong possibility Toussaint gets a full workload in making his price of $3900 a very good bargain. The Bengals rush defense is very strong. I do not expect a 100+ yard performance, but again, it is quite possible the Wild Card weekend doesn't produce one. The point here is, You are only spending $3900 for a decent performance. If you go Peterson or Lynch, you may very well get a similar performance. Of course the difference is spending $7300/$6500 making 3x and 4x value a humongous mountain to climb. I would much rather spend the money on the WR position.
I completely understand being tentative here. It is an absolute roll of the dice and a gut check. Just remember when you are setting your LU's, seven of the top eight rushing defenses are in the playoffs. Five of them are playing this weekend in the Wild Card round. The playoffs are vastly different than the regular season and our LU's will reflect those differences. You will have to pick your poison this week and mine will not be spending a ton of money on RB's.
Wild Card Weekend WR Plays
I will answer any and all DFS and fantasy football questions.
Tweet me @Brian_Eilering
Email me Br_Eilering@yahoo.com
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