Monday, September 5, 2016

Best Value's For Week 1

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I spent a minute identifying some players to avoid in Week 1, now let's spend some time mining for value.  Finding the value play allows you to spend big at the important positions.  Without these highly important value plays, you will end up with a roster filled with middle of the road players.  Whether you are playing GPP or cash games, you need that steady expensive piece of the puzzle to help stabilize your line up.

The good news with your value players is they don't cost you much.  In addition to that, they don't have to score a ton of points to get the ROI you are looking for.

These are the basic ROI you are looking for in the different games you may get into:

Cash Games = 3x multiplier
Example - Spencer Ware - $4400 x 3 = 13.2 Points
                 Demaryius Thomas - $7000 x 3 = 21 Points
                 Antonio Brown - $9800 x 3 = 29.4 Points

GPP Games = 4x multiplier
Example - Spencer Ware - $4400 x 4 = 17.6
                  Demaryius Thomas - $7000 x 4 = 28 Points
                  Antonio Brown - $9800 x 4 = 39.2 Points

As you can see, the more expensive a player gets, the harder it is for him to accomplish the multiplier affect needed to get the return on our investment.  The more points your cheaper players score, the less your big dollar players have to score.  Getting points from your value players is essential to you winning money vs simply donating to the cause.

Let's spend some time to find some players more likely to outproduce their ROI.  I will try to keep this list under $5000 giving you some options to take advantage of some pricing inefficiencies.

UPDATE: With Chris Ivory INACTIVE, TJ Yeldon ($4100) makes a strong buy for Sunday games!
Dak Prescott ($5000) - He is a raw talent walking into a good looking situation.  QB prices don't get cheaper than this.  He should easily hit 3x value.  He will make mistakes.
Spencer Ware ($4400) - Mentioned earlier, Jamal Charles will be very limited.  Ware is the primary back up making him an RB1 for less than $5000.  Best value on the board.
UPDATE: Jamal Charles ruled out
Kamar Aiken ($4700) - Aiken will be the first option on a pass heavy offense.  Steve Smith isn't going to be himself while the TE options have dried up.  Aiken is a sure fire value for Week 1.
Willie Snead ($4800) - Snead is a bit riskier.  His performance will depend on the progress of Michael Thomas.  Snead has some upside here but I don't feel as strong as I do with some others on the list.
Tyler Boyd ($3600) - Boyd is the clear WR2 alongside AJ Green.  With Eifert on the shelf, Boyd will be given the opportunity to vastly outproduce his Week 1 price.
Melvin Gordon ($4600) - Decent looking match up with Justin Houston on PUP.  Gordon will get the RB1 workload making his price fantastic.
Jeremy Langford ($4700) - Don't care for the match up but love the workload.  Targets + Carries could equal 20 DK points.  Only needs 14.1 for 3x value.
James White ($3600) - With Dion Lewis out, White could be in for a decent workload making his 3x and 4x value a very achievable goal.






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