Monday, September 5, 2016

Top Overpriced Players Week 1

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I typically give you the top five or so players at each position.  in my notes section below, many of the players I will be using are mentioned.  I will spend a few minutes discussing some players I very quickly skipped over while selecting my LU's.

Big named and priced players not playing:  Tom Brady, Tony Romo, LaVeon Bell, Dion Lewis, Jamal Charles

UPDATE: Thomas Rawls to see limited action in Week 1.  For his price of $6000, I would shy away from using him in DFS.

Cam Newton ($7700) 
Carolina -3
Denver 41.5
Thursday Night Football special.  Trust me, DFS players all across this land will be firing Newton into their line ups.  This game will be a defensive struggle minimizing any consistent points from any one player.  I would much rather spend my cash on a more predictable high output game like Oakland vs New Orleans whose game total is 51.

Jamal Charles ($7100)
San Diego +7
KC Chiefs 44.5
Charles is priced as if he were 100%.  He is not, in fact, Spencer Ware ($4400) is the better buy here.  The Chargers rush defense is subpar allowing for someone to shine in this offense.  I would much rather pony up the cash for Ware and leave the big priced Charles for other folks.
UPDATE: Charles is now ruled out per Andy Reid

Carlos Hyde ($5600)
LA Rams -2.5
San Fran 44
The 49ers are primed for a rough season.  The Rams only allowed 7 rushing TD's last season.  This offense is going to struggle to consistently move the ball.  The total in this game is 44, I actually like the under here.  This 49er team is not built similar to the Eagles team Chip Kelly took over a few years ago.  The talent simply isn't there for him to strip away.  There will be startable weeks for Hyde, this isn't one of them.

Jonathan Stewart ($5100)
Carolina -3
Denver 41.5
The Denver D was no mirage last year.  It's just solid and that will carry over for this coming season.  I like Stewart as a season long player but week 1 isn't the place to start him.

Alshon Jeffery ($7900)
Chicago +6
Houston 44
Chicago is only projected for 19 points in this game.  The Texans only gave up one TD in the last four games of the season last year.  I would lay off most Bears this week.  My recency bias remembers a Texans D that refuse to allow points in 2015.  I would much prefer Golden Tate for $7300.  The Lions and Colts could be in for a shootout Week 1 (50.5 O/U).

Demaryius Thomas ($7000)
Carolina -3
Denver 41.5
Thomas had a terrible 2015.  His drops were incredibly bad.  He now inherits a young QB facing one of the toughest defenses in the NFL.  This game has a low total and there is a lot stacking up against Thomas in this affair.  I will fade Thomas most of the season until he proves he can consistently catch the ball.  I would prefer Donte Moncrief ($6000).

DeVante Parker ($5300)
Miami +10.5
Seattle 44
I don't think Parker is ready for the big time just yet.  He may not even be ready physically for Week 1.  Gase has made it clear he isn't impressed with Parker spending more time in the training room than on the football field.  Parker will easily underperform his price.  Marvin Jones ($4600) makes a lot more sense and $700 cheaper.
UPDATE: DeVante Parker remains sidelined.

Twitter: @Brian_Eilering

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