Tuesday, September 13, 2016

Week 2 QB Plays - #DFS

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As I go through these selections, I typically take all aspects of the game into consideration including match ups, price, and potential roster strategy.  I may not roster every selection here but the case can certainly be made for their usage.

NO Saints +5
NY Giants 53

This match up will be featured all week long.  It is the highest total on the board and should be considered in all formats as you begin constructing your line ups.

Drew Brees ($8200)
I would exercise caution here as Brees is the most expensive QB on the board.  It is very tantalizing for sure but his price is steep! One of my favorite stacks of the week includes a much cheaper QB, Matt Ryan.  Brees will make a tremendous option this week.  He will be very highly owned in DFS, making him the chalk play in what could be 30% of line ups.  I  may pivot to some lesser owned players.

Eli Manning ($7600)
You aren't getting much of a discount here.  The reason being, the Saints defense is so stinking lousy, every QB's price will be bumped up accordingly.  The poor Saints lost their top DB Delvin Breaux for 6 weeks.  He was the lone bright spot in this secondary.  Manning and company should be in for a huge day.  I would not shy away from starting any player on the Giants roster.  It should be that kind of day and Vegas agrees.  53 is a big number, I think it could easily hit 60.

Matt Ryan ($6800)
Atlanta +4.5
Oakland 49.5
The price difference between Brees and Ryan is substantial enough to consider.  Oakland just gave up over 400 yards and 4 TD's to the Saints.  In comes Matt Ryan who had over 320 yards and 2 TD's himself in Week 1.  We were told all off season how much stronger this Raiders defense was going to be, Drew Brees must not have been listening.  Mohammed Sanu finally gives Ryan the second target he so desperately needed.  Sanu caught 5 of the 8 targets thrown his way totaling 59 yards and a score.  While the Falcons defense may still be suspect, I am not afraid of their offense.  I think Ryan is a great bargain this week.

Joe Flacco ($6500)
Baltimore -6.5
Cleveland 43
The Browns just gave up 278/2/0 to a rookie QB on a bad offense.  While I am not convinced the Ravens are exactly a high flying offense, they are certainly more adept than Philly.  I believe Cleveland and LA Rams are going to fight it out for the top pick in next years draft.  Flacco has just enough weapons to put up a formidable 300/2/0 type afternoon handsomely rewarding us for being bargain shoppers.  Flacco may not be the best GPP play as I feel like his upside is limited, but he does make a fantastic cash game player.

There are quite a few good looking QB match ups this week.  In the essence of time, I will simply take note of several that catch my eye.
In order of price:

Josh McCown ($5000): You have to trust that the Cleveland offense will be better with McCown than RG3.  For the basement price DK offers for QB's, it may be a gamble worth taking allowing for more dollars spent at other positions similar to Dak Prescott last week.

Trevor Siemian ($5200): Has very limited upside but facing Indy and their lackluster defense.  They lost their top 2 DB's last week and didn't have any to lose.  Good cash play, not GPP.

Dak Prescott ($5800):  $800 more expensive than last week.  Still a good bargain.  Prescott had 45 attempts in Week 1 vs the NYG secondary.  A lot of dinks and dunks, might turn it loose a little more vs Washington who struggled mightily vs the Steelers.

Marcus Mariota ($6000): Still a good price against a poor Lions defense who just gave up 385/4/0 to Andrew Luck.  Still limited upside, better cash play.

Andy Dalton ($6400):  Really an attractive price against a Steelers defense that had major lapses last year.  Not a ton of upgrades on D, Dalton could easily outperform price.

Carson Palmer ($6900):  Another nice price for a top level QB facing a weak secondary.  Facing TB who just gave up nice day to Matt Ryan.  Positive outlook for Palmer Week 2.

Derek Carr ($7200): Facing a below average Falcon defense with zero pass rush for the 29th straight season.  Winston 281/4/1 last week vs Falcons (no sacks once again).

Cam Newton ($7900): A little too pricey for me but 49ers will rank in bottom 3 of teams this season.  Week 1 vs Rams was a mirage.  Newton could have massive day Week 2.

I appreciate any and all feedback.

Br_Eilering@yahoo.com
@Brian_Eilering









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