Week 2 QB Plays - #DFS

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As I go through these selections, I typically take all aspects of the game into consideration including match ups, price, and potential roster strategy.  I may not roster every selection here but the case can certainly be made for their usage.

NO Saints +5
NY Giants 53

This match up will be featured all week long.  It is the highest total on the board and should be considered in all formats as you begin constructing your line ups.

Drew Brees ($8200)
I would exercise caution here as Brees is the most expensive QB on the board.  It is very tantalizing for sure but his price is steep! One of my favorite stacks of the week includes a much cheaper QB, Matt Ryan.  Brees will make a tremendous option this week.  He will be very highly owned in DFS, making him the chalk play in what could be 30% of line ups.  I  may pivot to some lesser owned players.

Eli Manning ($7600)
You aren't getting much of a discount here.  The reason being, the Saints defense is so stinking lousy, every QB's price will be bumped up accordingly.  The poor Saints lost their top DB Delvin Breaux for 6 weeks.  He was the lone bright spot in this secondary.  Manning and company should be in for a huge day.  I would not shy away from starting any player on the Giants roster.  It should be that kind of day and Vegas agrees.  53 is a big number, I think it could easily hit 60.

Matt Ryan ($6800)
Atlanta +4.5
Oakland 49.5
The price difference between Brees and Ryan is substantial enough to consider.  Oakland just gave up over 400 yards and 4 TD's to the Saints.  In comes Matt Ryan who had over 320 yards and 2 TD's himself in Week 1.  We were told all off season how much stronger this Raiders defense was going to be, Drew Brees must not have been listening.  Mohammed Sanu finally gives Ryan the second target he so desperately needed.  Sanu caught 5 of the 8 targets thrown his way totaling 59 yards and a score.  While the Falcons defense may still be suspect, I am not afraid of their offense.  I think Ryan is a great bargain this week.

Joe Flacco ($6500)
Baltimore -6.5
Cleveland 43
The Browns just gave up 278/2/0 to a rookie QB on a bad offense.  While I am not convinced the Ravens are exactly a high flying offense, they are certainly more adept than Philly.  I believe Cleveland and LA Rams are going to fight it out for the top pick in next years draft.  Flacco has just enough weapons to put up a formidable 300/2/0 type afternoon handsomely rewarding us for being bargain shoppers.  Flacco may not be the best GPP play as I feel like his upside is limited, but he does make a fantastic cash game player.

There are quite a few good looking QB match ups this week.  In the essence of time, I will simply take note of several that catch my eye.
In order of price:

Josh McCown ($5000): You have to trust that the Cleveland offense will be better with McCown than RG3.  For the basement price DK offers for QB's, it may be a gamble worth taking allowing for more dollars spent at other positions similar to Dak Prescott last week.

Trevor Siemian ($5200): Has very limited upside but facing Indy and their lackluster defense.  They lost their top 2 DB's last week and didn't have any to lose.  Good cash play, not GPP.

Dak Prescott ($5800):  $800 more expensive than last week.  Still a good bargain.  Prescott had 45 attempts in Week 1 vs the NYG secondary.  A lot of dinks and dunks, might turn it loose a little more vs Washington who struggled mightily vs the Steelers.

Marcus Mariota ($6000): Still a good price against a poor Lions defense who just gave up 385/4/0 to Andrew Luck.  Still limited upside, better cash play.

Andy Dalton ($6400):  Really an attractive price against a Steelers defense that had major lapses last year.  Not a ton of upgrades on D, Dalton could easily outperform price.

Carson Palmer ($6900):  Another nice price for a top level QB facing a weak secondary.  Facing TB who just gave up nice day to Matt Ryan.  Positive outlook for Palmer Week 2.

Derek Carr ($7200): Facing a below average Falcon defense with zero pass rush for the 29th straight season.  Winston 281/4/1 last week vs Falcons (no sacks once again).

Cam Newton ($7900): A little too pricey for me but 49ers will rank in bottom 3 of teams this season.  Week 1 vs Rams was a mirage.  Newton could have massive day Week 2.

I appreciate any and all feedback.

Br_Eilering@yahoo.com
@Brian_Eilering

Week 1 Notes

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I have been so busy with work, I simply haven't had a chance to write this summer.  With DFS picking back up in the NFL, I couldn't leave it alone.  I jumped right in and made some line ups.  I thought I would share my thoughts with those that are interested.

Last season was strong.  I tripled my money on Draft Kings and I'm aiming to accomplish that once again.

For now, here are some random notes:
The Raiders stack is strong against the weak Saints defense.  The Saints did very little to improve defensively, there is no reason to shy away from attacking this poor defense. I would feel comfortable using any combination of Carr, Murray, Crabtree, Walford, and Cooper.  This would make a great stack in your GPP contests.

Rashad Jennings represents tremendous value at $5400.  All signs point to him getting the lions share of the RB work.  He is a strong pass catcher as well.  The Giants are facing a Dallas D missing TONS of players up front.  Jennings is a safe play in all formats.

I know you will all be tempted to tee up players in Thursday Night Football.  I said it all last year but I will say it again...get into contests with TNF players but DON'T use the players.  Week 1 is no different.  In fact, I would highly encourage you to fire up tons of contest with TNF  in Week 1.  Everyone will be itching to get back in the game and will likely use plenty of players.  It's a great advantage to have for week 1.

Spencer Ware for $4400 is an enormous bargain.  Charles will be limited and Ware made it clear he's the primary backup.  Ware could get 20+ touches.  I will be sure to work him into several line ups.

Melvin Gordon has some negative bias following him from last season.  His price at $4600 is quite attractive for a RB that should get a full workload.  The Chiefs only gave up 7 rushing TD's but Justin Houston is starting the season on the PUP list.  Gordon should be in for 20+ carries making him a great deal for week 1.

Eli Manning ($7500) is a good deal.  Cam Newton is $7700 but facing that tough Denver D on TNF.  I would much prefer to use Manning for $200 less facing the Dallas D missing most of their front 7.  Dallas might be in for long afternoon.

Martellus Bennett ($3400) makes a lot of sense.  He will get his share of targets.  Even with Brady out, Bennett will see plenty of balls.  This price makes him very attractive.

The Titans Defense ($2600) was middle of the road last year.  They are a strong play this week against Minnesota who will likely be forced to start Shaun Hill in week 1 as they continue to get Sam Bradford up to speed on their offense.  The total is currently off the Vegas board but I think it will be around 40 when it comes on.There is a fair chance it ends up being the lowest total on the NFL slate this weekend.
The Titans check off most the boxes I'm looking for:
1.  Low Vegas Total
2.  Home Team
3.  Facing New QB
4.  Vegas Favorite?

Kamar Aiken ($4700) should get double digit targets in Trestman's pass heavy offense.  Steve Smith isn't going to be himself.  Buck Allen will get some out of backfield.  Ben Watson is out for year.  All signs point to Aiken getting volume and his price is off to start the year.  He will be a $5500 WR by week 3.


Email: br_eilering@yahoo.com
Twitter: @Brian_Eilering