Week 2 QB Plays - #DFS

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As I go through these selections, I typically take all aspects of the game into consideration including match ups, price, and potential roster strategy.  I may not roster every selection here but the case can certainly be made for their usage.

NO Saints +5
NY Giants 53

This match up will be featured all week long.  It is the highest total on the board and should be considered in all formats as you begin constructing your line ups.

Drew Brees ($8200)
I would exercise caution here as Brees is the most expensive QB on the board.  It is very tantalizing for sure but his price is steep! One of my favorite stacks of the week includes a much cheaper QB, Matt Ryan.  Brees will make a tremendous option this week.  He will be very highly owned in DFS, making him the chalk play in what could be 30% of line ups.  I  may pivot to some lesser owned players.

Eli Manning ($7600)
You aren't getting much of a discount here.  The reason being, the Saints defense is so stinking lousy, every QB's price will be bumped up accordingly.  The poor Saints lost their top DB Delvin Breaux for 6 weeks.  He was the lone bright spot in this secondary.  Manning and company should be in for a huge day.  I would not shy away from starting any player on the Giants roster.  It should be that kind of day and Vegas agrees.  53 is a big number, I think it could easily hit 60.

Matt Ryan ($6800)
Atlanta +4.5
Oakland 49.5
The price difference between Brees and Ryan is substantial enough to consider.  Oakland just gave up over 400 yards and 4 TD's to the Saints.  In comes Matt Ryan who had over 320 yards and 2 TD's himself in Week 1.  We were told all off season how much stronger this Raiders defense was going to be, Drew Brees must not have been listening.  Mohammed Sanu finally gives Ryan the second target he so desperately needed.  Sanu caught 5 of the 8 targets thrown his way totaling 59 yards and a score.  While the Falcons defense may still be suspect, I am not afraid of their offense.  I think Ryan is a great bargain this week.

Joe Flacco ($6500)
Baltimore -6.5
Cleveland 43
The Browns just gave up 278/2/0 to a rookie QB on a bad offense.  While I am not convinced the Ravens are exactly a high flying offense, they are certainly more adept than Philly.  I believe Cleveland and LA Rams are going to fight it out for the top pick in next years draft.  Flacco has just enough weapons to put up a formidable 300/2/0 type afternoon handsomely rewarding us for being bargain shoppers.  Flacco may not be the best GPP play as I feel like his upside is limited, but he does make a fantastic cash game player.

There are quite a few good looking QB match ups this week.  In the essence of time, I will simply take note of several that catch my eye.
In order of price:

Josh McCown ($5000): You have to trust that the Cleveland offense will be better with McCown than RG3.  For the basement price DK offers for QB's, it may be a gamble worth taking allowing for more dollars spent at other positions similar to Dak Prescott last week.

Trevor Siemian ($5200): Has very limited upside but facing Indy and their lackluster defense.  They lost their top 2 DB's last week and didn't have any to lose.  Good cash play, not GPP.

Dak Prescott ($5800):  $800 more expensive than last week.  Still a good bargain.  Prescott had 45 attempts in Week 1 vs the NYG secondary.  A lot of dinks and dunks, might turn it loose a little more vs Washington who struggled mightily vs the Steelers.

Marcus Mariota ($6000): Still a good price against a poor Lions defense who just gave up 385/4/0 to Andrew Luck.  Still limited upside, better cash play.

Andy Dalton ($6400):  Really an attractive price against a Steelers defense that had major lapses last year.  Not a ton of upgrades on D, Dalton could easily outperform price.

Carson Palmer ($6900):  Another nice price for a top level QB facing a weak secondary.  Facing TB who just gave up nice day to Matt Ryan.  Positive outlook for Palmer Week 2.

Derek Carr ($7200): Facing a below average Falcon defense with zero pass rush for the 29th straight season.  Winston 281/4/1 last week vs Falcons (no sacks once again).

Cam Newton ($7900): A little too pricey for me but 49ers will rank in bottom 3 of teams this season.  Week 1 vs Rams was a mirage.  Newton could have massive day Week 2.

I appreciate any and all feedback.

Br_Eilering@yahoo.com
@Brian_Eilering

Week 1 #DFS Hail Mary Picks

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Hail Mary picks are just as they sound.  The success rate is built in to their price.  There is a higher percentage chance these don't hit but if you go with your "stars & scrubs" approach, finding these picks is essential for success.  These plays are not recommended for your cash games.  There is a fair chance they give you a big fat zero making them a better GPP play than cash.

I have made it clear on other posts that I will be going with a different approach but if you are looking for some very inexpensive WR's/TE's to outperform their price, here are some selections to consider.

Last season, I had a very high success rate of hitting on these bargains.  I will say finding them in Week 1 will be more difficult than mid season.  There is less data both offensively and defensively to utilize.

My Hail Mary picks are typically $3500 or less though I may cheat a little here and there depending on the week.

1.  Tyler Boyd ($3600)
Look at that, right off the bat, I cheated by $100.  The Bengals are short their top flight TE Tyler Eifert.  They also let their other secondary WR's (Marvin Jones/M. Sanu) walk in FA this past season.  This leaves Boyd opposite AJ Green to suck up the targets.  Brandon LaFell isn't scaring anyone with his skills.  He is spotty at best with consistency.  This pick may be a little premature, but for Week 1 and the price, Boyd makes a lot of sense.

2.  Tajae Sharp ($3000)
Sharp is making is case to be the WR1 in Tennessee.  Rishard Matthews may get more early work as Sharp gets accustom to the NFL and this new offense.  Sharp has had a great pre-season and makes a perfect boom/bust selection for DFS Week 1.

3.  Clive Walford ($3000)
The Saints do not appear to have improved greatly on defense.  They should still be a defense we target heavily in 2016 when we construct our DFS selections.  Derek Carr came into his own last season and year three should be another growth year in terms of maturity in this Oakland offense.  Walford received very little attention at the start of 2015.  His targets grew as the season progressed where he peaked in Weeks 14 & 15 with 7 targets each game.  Walford is another young player primed to grow in a developing offense.  If you are looking to save money at the TE, Walford makes a strong selection.

4.  Jared Cook ($2900)
Cook is the prototypical boom/bust player.  He has an amazing skill set which has teased us all over his entire career.  I have fell prey to him in seasons past.  Now, he comes into a GB offense with arguably (not in my eyes) the best QB in the game.  If Jordy Nelson is back to form, defenses (Jacksonville this week) will be forced to roll coverage on him.  This will leave both Randall Cobb and Jared Cook a little more free to roam the middle of the field where they do their best work.  In another cash saving move, Cook may prove as a savvy play in Week 1 DFS.

I appreciate any and all feedback
Br_Eilering@yahoo.com
@Brian_Eilering

Best Value's For Week 1

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I spent a minute identifying some players to avoid in Week 1, now let's spend some time mining for value.  Finding the value play allows you to spend big at the important positions.  Without these highly important value plays, you will end up with a roster filled with middle of the road players.  Whether you are playing GPP or cash games, you need that steady expensive piece of the puzzle to help stabilize your line up.

The good news with your value players is they don't cost you much.  In addition to that, they don't have to score a ton of points to get the ROI you are looking for.

These are the basic ROI you are looking for in the different games you may get into:

Cash Games = 3x multiplier
Example - Spencer Ware - $4400 x 3 = 13.2 Points
                 Demaryius Thomas - $7000 x 3 = 21 Points
                 Antonio Brown - $9800 x 3 = 29.4 Points

GPP Games = 4x multiplier
Example - Spencer Ware - $4400 x 4 = 17.6
                  Demaryius Thomas - $7000 x 4 = 28 Points
                  Antonio Brown - $9800 x 4 = 39.2 Points

As you can see, the more expensive a player gets, the harder it is for him to accomplish the multiplier affect needed to get the return on our investment.  The more points your cheaper players score, the less your big dollar players have to score.  Getting points from your value players is essential to you winning money vs simply donating to the cause.

Let's spend some time to find some players more likely to outproduce their ROI.  I will try to keep this list under $5000 giving you some options to take advantage of some pricing inefficiencies.

UPDATE: With Chris Ivory INACTIVE, TJ Yeldon ($4100) makes a strong buy for Sunday games!
Dak Prescott ($5000) - He is a raw talent walking into a good looking situation.  QB prices don't get cheaper than this.  He should easily hit 3x value.  He will make mistakes.
Spencer Ware ($4400) - Mentioned earlier, Jamal Charles will be very limited.  Ware is the primary back up making him an RB1 for less than $5000.  Best value on the board.
UPDATE: Jamal Charles ruled out
Kamar Aiken ($4700) - Aiken will be the first option on a pass heavy offense.  Steve Smith isn't going to be himself while the TE options have dried up.  Aiken is a sure fire value for Week 1.
Willie Snead ($4800) - Snead is a bit riskier.  His performance will depend on the progress of Michael Thomas.  Snead has some upside here but I don't feel as strong as I do with some others on the list.
Tyler Boyd ($3600) - Boyd is the clear WR2 alongside AJ Green.  With Eifert on the shelf, Boyd will be given the opportunity to vastly outproduce his Week 1 price.
Melvin Gordon ($4600) - Decent looking match up with Justin Houston on PUP.  Gordon will get the RB1 workload making his price fantastic.
Jeremy Langford ($4700) - Don't care for the match up but love the workload.  Targets + Carries could equal 20 DK points.  Only needs 14.1 for 3x value.
James White ($3600) - With Dion Lewis out, White could be in for a decent workload making his 3x and 4x value a very achievable goal.