Week 2 RB Plays - DFS

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I always like to at least have a snapshot of the five (or so) worst rushing or receiving defenses in either category.

RK	TEAM	ATT	YDS	YDS/A	TD	YDS/G
27	Carolina	29	148	5.1	2	148.0
28	Cincinnati	30	152	5.1	0	152.0
29	Kansas City	32	155	4.8	2	155.0
30	Denver	32	157	4.9	1	157.0
31	New Orleans	26	167	6.4	3	167.0

I fully believe this will be the last time the list looks like anything like Week 1.  Carolina and Denver beat each other up on TNF, KC will get Justin Houston back, and Cincinnati is simply not that bad.

Where does that leave us?  Darn New Orleans again.  As mentioned yesterday,  this game should be targeted heavy all week.  Let's take a look at the next 5 teams, and see if it is something we can work with.

22	Indianapolis	24	116	4.8	2	116.0
23	Philadelphia	21	120	5.7	1	120.0
24	Chicago	35	129	3.7	0	129.0
25	Cleveland	34	133	3.9	1	133.0
26	Washington	30	147	4.9	2	147.0

Ahhh, there we go.  This is the fine group of teams you should be looking for and targeting while setting your DFS LU's this week.

Jeremy Langford ($4600)

Philadelphia +3

Chicago 43

The Eagles just gave up 120 yards on the ground to the hapless Cleveland Browns.  Langford received a true RB1 workload not sharing much of his duties with his team mates.  Langford is undoubtedly the focal point of this rushing attack.  I don't think you will find a better price/workload scenario in week 2.  In addition, this extensive workload comes against a less than average Philly D.  The Bears are projected for 23 of the 43 points in this contest.  Langford has nice upside and a high floor, I would consider him in all formats.

TJ Yeldon ($4700)

Jacksonville -3

San Diego 47

Yeldon seemed primed for a monster afternoon vs GB in Week 1.  He was only able to come out of the game averaging 1.9 YPC but had a TD making his day for his investors.  If Chris Ivory (check status here) is out again Week 2,   Yeldon should get a lot of work against a weak SD rush defense.  This is another good looking price/workload scenario however Week 1 production for Yeldon does stick in my head.

Rashad Jennings ($5600)

New Orleans +5

NY Giants 53

Jennings did not have quite the day we had hoped in Week 1 (75/0) but he dominated the carries.  Jennings carried the ball 18 times to Vareen's 6 carries.  Vareen did have three more targets in the passing game.  The Saints gave up a monster 167/3 on the ground to the Raiders in Week 1.  The Giants could be in for another 400-500 yard offensive day.  Jennings makes sense in all DFS formats.

Spencer Ware ($6100)

KC Chiefs +2

Houston 43.5

The price for Ware caught up pretty darn fast.  It does not look like Jamaal Charles will be rushed back into this offense.  Ware gave the Chiefs plenty of reasons allowing the Chiefs to ease Charles back in.  Ware rewarded us all in a tremendous way for 11/71/1 on the ground and 7/129/0 through the air.  This is a much less enticing match up though Jeremy Langford had a formidable game against these Texans in Week 1.  Ware and West split true playing time though Ware out touched West 19-9.  Ware is a sure fire start heading into Week 2 even at his elevated price.  Some will be scared off due to his new price tag coupled with his less than desirable match up.  I'm firing him up once again.

CJ Anderson ($6800)

Indy +6

Denver 45.5

Anderson proved in Week 1 he is the undeniable starter in Denver.  Devontae Booker helped the decision process by fumbling away his first opportunity as a pro.  Anderson sliced through a strong Carolina defense for 20/92/1 on the ground and another 4/47/1 through the air.  The Broncos will remain content with allowing the ground game dictate their outcome while Trevor Siemian continues to grow as an NFL passer.  The Lions used several different RB's against the Colts defense in Week 1.  They all had relative success. Anderson could be in for one of the larger performances in Week 2.  If you are looking to spend some extra cash in Week 2 at RB, look no further than Anderson.

David Johnson ($7600)

Tamp Bay +6.5

Arizona 50.5

Johnson is the most expensive RB on the board this week.  TB gave up over 320 yards to Matt Ryan but held the Falons running game in check.  In years past, you would expect the Cardinals to get out to a hot start and allow Johnson to milk away the clock.  I do not think this is the same Tampa team who often would roll over early in the game.  I would exercise caution with Johnson due to his high price though his versatility in the passing game makes him very attractive in the PPR format Draft Kings offers. 

I answer any and all fantasy/DFS questions

Br_Eilering@yahoo.com

@Brian_Eilering

Week 1 #DFS Hail Mary Picks

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Hail Mary picks are just as they sound.  The success rate is built in to their price.  There is a higher percentage chance these don't hit but if you go with your "stars & scrubs" approach, finding these picks is essential for success.  These plays are not recommended for your cash games.  There is a fair chance they give you a big fat zero making them a better GPP play than cash.

I have made it clear on other posts that I will be going with a different approach but if you are looking for some very inexpensive WR's/TE's to outperform their price, here are some selections to consider.

Last season, I had a very high success rate of hitting on these bargains.  I will say finding them in Week 1 will be more difficult than mid season.  There is less data both offensively and defensively to utilize.

My Hail Mary picks are typically $3500 or less though I may cheat a little here and there depending on the week.

1.  Tyler Boyd ($3600)
Look at that, right off the bat, I cheated by $100.  The Bengals are short their top flight TE Tyler Eifert.  They also let their other secondary WR's (Marvin Jones/M. Sanu) walk in FA this past season.  This leaves Boyd opposite AJ Green to suck up the targets.  Brandon LaFell isn't scaring anyone with his skills.  He is spotty at best with consistency.  This pick may be a little premature, but for Week 1 and the price, Boyd makes a lot of sense.

2.  Tajae Sharp ($3000)
Sharp is making is case to be the WR1 in Tennessee.  Rishard Matthews may get more early work as Sharp gets accustom to the NFL and this new offense.  Sharp has had a great pre-season and makes a perfect boom/bust selection for DFS Week 1.

3.  Clive Walford ($3000)
The Saints do not appear to have improved greatly on defense.  They should still be a defense we target heavily in 2016 when we construct our DFS selections.  Derek Carr came into his own last season and year three should be another growth year in terms of maturity in this Oakland offense.  Walford received very little attention at the start of 2015.  His targets grew as the season progressed where he peaked in Weeks 14 & 15 with 7 targets each game.  Walford is another young player primed to grow in a developing offense.  If you are looking to save money at the TE, Walford makes a strong selection.

4.  Jared Cook ($2900)
Cook is the prototypical boom/bust player.  He has an amazing skill set which has teased us all over his entire career.  I have fell prey to him in seasons past.  Now, he comes into a GB offense with arguably (not in my eyes) the best QB in the game.  If Jordy Nelson is back to form, defenses (Jacksonville this week) will be forced to roll coverage on him.  This will leave both Randall Cobb and Jared Cook a little more free to roam the middle of the field where they do their best work.  In another cash saving move, Cook may prove as a savvy play in Week 1 DFS.

I appreciate any and all feedback
Br_Eilering@yahoo.com
@Brian_Eilering

Week 1 DFS Strategy - The Zero RB Approach

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With the news of Thomas Rawls the official #2 behind Christine Michael for Week 1, I think a new strategy should be in play.

RB1 - Spencer Ware ($4400)
RB2 - Christin Michael ($3600)

This only ties up $8000 of your cap with what will amount to two full time RB1's.  Now, you can get as creative as you would like with the remainder of your roster.  It allows you to go big at the WR position where the Draft Kings PPR comes into play.  I would propose something along these lines.



Taking advantage of pricing inefficiencies is the name of the game in DFS.  Getting two full time RB1 candidates at or near minimum pricing allows a ton of flexibility.  I would be hard pressed to spend any more money on the RB position this week.  I am not trying to say there are not other great opportunities out there at RB but I am not convinced you can find better value.

UPDATE:
I have had several people offer variations of this line up.  Including removing Latavius Murray or possibly changing out Brandin Cooks.

The point of this strategy is to give you the most amount of flexibility as possible.  I may not even use this exact LU myself.  I will use some form of it though.

James White ($3600) is another very logical player to use in this zero RB approach.  Again, the more big time WR's you are able to utilize, the better off you are in Week 1.  They will offer a massive amount of upside while limiting the potential floor of many of the low-mid range WR's you may be forced to use with a different strategy.

br_eilering@yahoo.com
@brian_eilering

Best Value's For Week 1

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I spent a minute identifying some players to avoid in Week 1, now let's spend some time mining for value.  Finding the value play allows you to spend big at the important positions.  Without these highly important value plays, you will end up with a roster filled with middle of the road players.  Whether you are playing GPP or cash games, you need that steady expensive piece of the puzzle to help stabilize your line up.

The good news with your value players is they don't cost you much.  In addition to that, they don't have to score a ton of points to get the ROI you are looking for.

These are the basic ROI you are looking for in the different games you may get into:

Cash Games = 3x multiplier
Example - Spencer Ware - $4400 x 3 = 13.2 Points
                 Demaryius Thomas - $7000 x 3 = 21 Points
                 Antonio Brown - $9800 x 3 = 29.4 Points

GPP Games = 4x multiplier
Example - Spencer Ware - $4400 x 4 = 17.6
                  Demaryius Thomas - $7000 x 4 = 28 Points
                  Antonio Brown - $9800 x 4 = 39.2 Points

As you can see, the more expensive a player gets, the harder it is for him to accomplish the multiplier affect needed to get the return on our investment.  The more points your cheaper players score, the less your big dollar players have to score.  Getting points from your value players is essential to you winning money vs simply donating to the cause.

Let's spend some time to find some players more likely to outproduce their ROI.  I will try to keep this list under $5000 giving you some options to take advantage of some pricing inefficiencies.

UPDATE: With Chris Ivory INACTIVE, TJ Yeldon ($4100) makes a strong buy for Sunday games!
Dak Prescott ($5000) - He is a raw talent walking into a good looking situation.  QB prices don't get cheaper than this.  He should easily hit 3x value.  He will make mistakes.
Spencer Ware ($4400) - Mentioned earlier, Jamal Charles will be very limited.  Ware is the primary back up making him an RB1 for less than $5000.  Best value on the board.
UPDATE: Jamal Charles ruled out
Kamar Aiken ($4700) - Aiken will be the first option on a pass heavy offense.  Steve Smith isn't going to be himself while the TE options have dried up.  Aiken is a sure fire value for Week 1.
Willie Snead ($4800) - Snead is a bit riskier.  His performance will depend on the progress of Michael Thomas.  Snead has some upside here but I don't feel as strong as I do with some others on the list.
Tyler Boyd ($3600) - Boyd is the clear WR2 alongside AJ Green.  With Eifert on the shelf, Boyd will be given the opportunity to vastly outproduce his Week 1 price.
Melvin Gordon ($4600) - Decent looking match up with Justin Houston on PUP.  Gordon will get the RB1 workload making his price fantastic.
Jeremy Langford ($4700) - Don't care for the match up but love the workload.  Targets + Carries could equal 20 DK points.  Only needs 14.1 for 3x value.
James White ($3600) - With Dion Lewis out, White could be in for a decent workload making his 3x and 4x value a very achievable goal.

Top Overpriced Players Week 1

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I typically give you the top five or so players at each position.  in my notes section below, many of the players I will be using are mentioned.  I will spend a few minutes discussing some players I very quickly skipped over while selecting my LU's.

Big named and priced players not playing:  Tom Brady, Tony Romo, LaVeon Bell, Dion Lewis, Jamal Charles

UPDATE: Thomas Rawls to see limited action in Week 1.  For his price of $6000, I would shy away from using him in DFS.

Cam Newton ($7700) 
Carolina -3
Denver 41.5

Thursday Night Football special.  Trust me, DFS players all across this land will be firing Newton into their line ups.  This game will be a defensive struggle minimizing any consistent points from any one player.  I would much rather spend my cash on a more predictable high output game like Oakland vs New Orleans whose game total is 51.

Jamal Charles ($7100)
San Diego +7
KC Chiefs 44.5
Charles is priced as if he were 100%.  He is not, in fact, Spencer Ware ($4400) is the better buy here.  The Chargers rush defense is subpar allowing for someone to shine in this offense.  I would much rather pony up the cash for Ware and leave the big priced Charles for other folks.
UPDATE: Charles is now ruled out per Andy Reid

Carlos Hyde ($5600)
LA Rams -2.5
San Fran 44
The 49ers are primed for a rough season.  The Rams only allowed 7 rushing TD's last season.  This offense is going to struggle to consistently move the ball.  The total in this game is 44, I actually like the under here.  This 49er team is not built similar to the Eagles team Chip Kelly took over a few years ago.  The talent simply isn't there for him to strip away.  There will be startable weeks for Hyde, this isn't one of them.

Jonathan Stewart ($5100)
Carolina -3
Denver 41.5
The Denver D was no mirage last year.  It's just solid and that will carry over for this coming season.  I like Stewart as a season long player but week 1 isn't the place to start him.

Alshon Jeffery ($7900)
Chicago +6
Houston 44
Chicago is only projected for 19 points in this game.  The Texans only gave up one TD in the last four games of the season last year.  I would lay off most Bears this week.  My recency bias remembers a Texans D that refuse to allow points in 2015.  I would much prefer Golden Tate for $7300.  The Lions and Colts could be in for a shootout Week 1 (50.5 O/U).

Demaryius Thomas ($7000)
Carolina -3
Denver 41.5
Thomas had a terrible 2015.  His drops were incredibly bad.  He now inherits a young QB facing one of the toughest defenses in the NFL.  This game has a low total and there is a lot stacking up against Thomas in this affair.  I will fade Thomas most of the season until he proves he can consistently catch the ball.  I would prefer Donte Moncrief ($6000).

DeVante Parker ($5300)
Miami +10.5
Seattle 44
I don't think Parker is ready for the big time just yet.  He may not even be ready physically for Week 1.  Gase has made it clear he isn't impressed with Parker spending more time in the training room than on the football field.  Parker will easily underperform his price.  Marvin Jones ($4600) makes a lot more sense and $700 cheaper.
UPDATE: DeVante Parker remains sidelined.

Email: br_eilering@yahoo.com
Twitter: @Brian_Eilering

Week 1 Notes

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I have been so busy with work, I simply haven't had a chance to write this summer.  With DFS picking back up in the NFL, I couldn't leave it alone.  I jumped right in and made some line ups.  I thought I would share my thoughts with those that are interested.

Last season was strong.  I tripled my money on Draft Kings and I'm aiming to accomplish that once again.

For now, here are some random notes:
The Raiders stack is strong against the weak Saints defense.  The Saints did very little to improve defensively, there is no reason to shy away from attacking this poor defense. I would feel comfortable using any combination of Carr, Murray, Crabtree, Walford, and Cooper.  This would make a great stack in your GPP contests.

Rashad Jennings represents tremendous value at $5400.  All signs point to him getting the lions share of the RB work.  He is a strong pass catcher as well.  The Giants are facing a Dallas D missing TONS of players up front.  Jennings is a safe play in all formats.

I know you will all be tempted to tee up players in Thursday Night Football.  I said it all last year but I will say it again...get into contests with TNF players but DON'T use the players.  Week 1 is no different.  In fact, I would highly encourage you to fire up tons of contest with TNF  in Week 1.  Everyone will be itching to get back in the game and will likely use plenty of players.  It's a great advantage to have for week 1.

Spencer Ware for $4400 is an enormous bargain.  Charles will be limited and Ware made it clear he's the primary backup.  Ware could get 20+ touches.  I will be sure to work him into several line ups.

Melvin Gordon has some negative bias following him from last season.  His price at $4600 is quite attractive for a RB that should get a full workload.  The Chiefs only gave up 7 rushing TD's but Justin Houston is starting the season on the PUP list.  Gordon should be in for 20+ carries making him a great deal for week 1.

Eli Manning ($7500) is a good deal.  Cam Newton is $7700 but facing that tough Denver D on TNF.  I would much prefer to use Manning for $200 less facing the Dallas D missing most of their front 7.  Dallas might be in for long afternoon.

Martellus Bennett ($3400) makes a lot of sense.  He will get his share of targets.  Even with Brady out, Bennett will see plenty of balls.  This price makes him very attractive.

The Titans Defense ($2600) was middle of the road last year.  They are a strong play this week against Minnesota who will likely be forced to start Shaun Hill in week 1 as they continue to get Sam Bradford up to speed on their offense.  The total is currently off the Vegas board but I think it will be around 40 when it comes on.There is a fair chance it ends up being the lowest total on the NFL slate this weekend.
The Titans check off most the boxes I'm looking for:
1.  Low Vegas Total
2.  Home Team
3.  Facing New QB
4.  Vegas Favorite?

Kamar Aiken ($4700) should get double digit targets in Trestman's pass heavy offense.  Steve Smith isn't going to be himself.  Buck Allen will get some out of backfield.  Ben Watson is out for year.  All signs point to Aiken getting volume and his price is off to start the year.  He will be a $5500 WR by week 3.


Email: br_eilering@yahoo.com
Twitter: @Brian_Eilering

Running Back - Jordan Howard - Indiana

Jordan Howard - RB Indiana
6'1" 230

Howard has very good size for the position.  He runs well between the tackles and is not easily brought down by arm tackles.  He will pick up the blitz (1:15 in the clip) and catch the screen allowing him to play on all three downs.  He was limited in passing situations at Indiana but did show the ability.  He does not have blazing speed, but often will get past the first line of defense with his strength.  He does not shy away from contact, he will make the secondary pay for the collision.  He will put his foot in the ground and make a strong initial cut.  He is extremely strong constantly breaking arm tackles.  NFL defenses will certainly be harder to get through, but he shows a strong desire to keep his legs moving and keep the play going.  He shows patience waiting for the hole to open up.  He plays strong in short yardage and goal line situations.

Best Comparison:  Think Chris Ivory (6'0" 222 lbs).  Ivory is similar in size and running ability.  Ivory is a violent runner excelling between the tackles but can stretch the run out as well.

Wide Receiver - Corey Coleman - Baylor

Corey Coleman - WR Baylor
5'11" 190 lbs
Coleman does his most dangerous work on the outside running vertical routes.  1:40 into the clip, you will see his speed as he breaks away from the defender, catch the deep ball, and finish the play with a touchdown.  He has the speed to stretch the field forcing additional help from the opposing teams secondary.  He lacks the ideal size to develop into a true #1 WR but is superbly dangerous as the true deep threat.  His quickness would make him a great slot receiver though he has shown some uncertainty about going across the middle at times.  He has a ton of John Brown qualities to his game.  John Brown does a great job of complimenting both Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd.  Coleman seems to fit that same mold as takes his game to the NFL.