Best Value's For Week 1

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I spent a minute identifying some players to avoid in Week 1, now let's spend some time mining for value.  Finding the value play allows you to spend big at the important positions.  Without these highly important value plays, you will end up with a roster filled with middle of the road players.  Whether you are playing GPP or cash games, you need that steady expensive piece of the puzzle to help stabilize your line up.

The good news with your value players is they don't cost you much.  In addition to that, they don't have to score a ton of points to get the ROI you are looking for.

These are the basic ROI you are looking for in the different games you may get into:

Cash Games = 3x multiplier
Example - Spencer Ware - $4400 x 3 = 13.2 Points
                 Demaryius Thomas - $7000 x 3 = 21 Points
                 Antonio Brown - $9800 x 3 = 29.4 Points

GPP Games = 4x multiplier
Example - Spencer Ware - $4400 x 4 = 17.6
                  Demaryius Thomas - $7000 x 4 = 28 Points
                  Antonio Brown - $9800 x 4 = 39.2 Points

As you can see, the more expensive a player gets, the harder it is for him to accomplish the multiplier affect needed to get the return on our investment.  The more points your cheaper players score, the less your big dollar players have to score.  Getting points from your value players is essential to you winning money vs simply donating to the cause.

Let's spend some time to find some players more likely to outproduce their ROI.  I will try to keep this list under $5000 giving you some options to take advantage of some pricing inefficiencies.

UPDATE: With Chris Ivory INACTIVE, TJ Yeldon ($4100) makes a strong buy for Sunday games!
Dak Prescott ($5000) - He is a raw talent walking into a good looking situation.  QB prices don't get cheaper than this.  He should easily hit 3x value.  He will make mistakes.
Spencer Ware ($4400) - Mentioned earlier, Jamal Charles will be very limited.  Ware is the primary back up making him an RB1 for less than $5000.  Best value on the board.
UPDATE: Jamal Charles ruled out
Kamar Aiken ($4700) - Aiken will be the first option on a pass heavy offense.  Steve Smith isn't going to be himself while the TE options have dried up.  Aiken is a sure fire value for Week 1.
Willie Snead ($4800) - Snead is a bit riskier.  His performance will depend on the progress of Michael Thomas.  Snead has some upside here but I don't feel as strong as I do with some others on the list.
Tyler Boyd ($3600) - Boyd is the clear WR2 alongside AJ Green.  With Eifert on the shelf, Boyd will be given the opportunity to vastly outproduce his Week 1 price.
Melvin Gordon ($4600) - Decent looking match up with Justin Houston on PUP.  Gordon will get the RB1 workload making his price fantastic.
Jeremy Langford ($4700) - Don't care for the match up but love the workload.  Targets + Carries could equal 20 DK points.  Only needs 14.1 for 3x value.
James White ($3600) - With Dion Lewis out, White could be in for a decent workload making his 3x and 4x value a very achievable goal.

Wide Receiver - Tyler Boyd - Pittsburgh

Tyler Boyd - WR Pittsburgh
6'2" 200lbs

Boyd is another tall thin receiver.  Boyd has a natural instinct to high point the ball and a strong desire to catch it! He catches the ball well in traffic and with defenders draped all over him.  He has the speed to slice through the defense and take it to the house.  He has tons of athletic and leaping ability.  Roughly, 1:40 into the clip, you will see his athletic ability leaping over the defender in full stride during a punt return.  He shows his ability to be physical while fighting for the ball.  He was consistently double covered yet still had 91 receptions his Junior year at Pittsburgh.  Boyd needs to add some weight through muscle mass so he is not pushed around by opposing DBs'.  There will comparables to fellow Pitt Panther Larry Fitzgerald over the coming months.  Boyd is leaner than Fitzgerald but does have many of the other physical traits.

Wide Receiver - Josh Doctson - TCU

Josh Doctson - WR TCU
6'3" 195 lbs

Doctson is a little thin but will easily add some weight to his frame.  Doctson wants the football!  He has great timing and continues to high point the ball over defenders.  One of his first catches (40 seconds into clip) in this highlight package, you will see a perfect example of his timing.  He catches the ball very well in traffic while using his body to shield the defenders.  Doctson wins most of the 50/50 balls thrown his way.  He creates nice separation in college, not sure if he is physical enough for similar results in NFL.  He never quits on the play often finding open spots on the field after the play breaks down.  He has nice speed to get behind defenses.  His leaping ability makes for a very wide and tall catching radius and a tremendous target for any quarterback.  He is very quick in/out of his breaks.

Overview: Doctson has the look and feel of a true #1 WR.  He will need to add some weight, but I prefer him over Ole Miss WR  Laquan Treadwell and OSU WR Michael Thomas.  I would rank him as my top wideout in this class.

Running Back - Alex Collins - Arkansas

Alex Collins - RB Arkansas
5'11" 218 lbs
Alex Collins has great between the tackles abilities.  He is powerful through the hole and does not stop on the first contact.  His feet are very quick as he is making his cuts.  He has many similarities to Isiah Crowell from UGA.  Strong inside runner with limited catching ability.  Collins could become a touchdown machine given the right opportunity.  At the 1:05 mark of the video, you will see his perfect between the tackles running that results in another touchdown.   Has the ability to get to edge in college, may not get there in the NFL.  Looks like a two down RB at the next level.

Upcoming Rookie Class

Looking ahead to the 2016 NFL season, let's take a look at the top players at each of the skill positions.  I will continue adding players to the blog as time allows.  Here is a good start as we inch closer to the draft.

Running Backs

Ezekiel Elliot - RB Ohio State University
6'1" 225
Tremendous top end speed.  Was able to get to the edge and capitalize.  Nice between the tackles but I was unable to see his ability to shake off the first defender.  I want to see what he can do after initial contact.  Very nice runner with serious NFL talent.  He looks best served to join an offense employing the zone blocking scheme.

Derrick Henry - RB Alabama
6'2" 240 lbs
College players seem to bounce off of him.  He is one cut and go, runner.  Not overly elusive in the open field but a true load to bring down.  He does not have elite speed but his size may make up for it.  He does have a Brandon Jacobs feel to him.  Unfortunately, it is easy to compare him to Eddie Lacy only because of his already large size.  If he gets off his diet regimen, his weight could really come off the rails.  It takes Henry a bit of time to get his full head of steam going making a stop and go running an impossibility.  I am not convinced he has the physical tools to become an elite NFL RB.  He may turn into a strong GL or short yardage back.  He was limited in the passing role at Alabama.

Devontae Booker - RB Utah
5'10" 208 lbs
Booker is slightly undersized but has similar physical traits as Doug Martin (5'9" 215 lbs) did when he came out of Boise State.  He also plays similar to Martin where he isn't afraid to go between the tackles and catches the ball extremely well out of the backfield catching 80 balls for 624 yards in his final two years at Utah.  His best game at Utah came where he piled up 222 yards rushing and 2 TD's against California.  Booker has some NFL tools and could make a very nice NFL RB given the right opportunity and system.

Kenneth Dixon - RB La Tech
5'10" 213 lbs
Dixon finishes every run the same way he starts them...strong.  He has a flash of Chris Ivory to him in the fact that he never gives up until the play is over.  Dixon also has a nice set of hands totaling 64 catches, 852 yards, and 13 touchdowns through the air over his final two years at La Tech.  Due to the physical nature of his play, he may he may have longevity concerns.  

Quarterbacks

Carson Wentz - QB North Dakota State
6'6" 235
Super tall kid with a pretty nice arm.  Pretty athletic, I saw a couple runs that were relatively impressive for a kid that size.  Ran some read option and also took snaps from the shotgun.  He has very nice touch on the ball when needed.  Doesn't unnecessarily throw the ball too hard.  Wentz also finished second on the team in rushing with 642 yards on the ground.  Played WR in HS.  Injured throwing wrist late in the season.  Could be the first quarterback taken.  Has some Ben Roethlisberger traits, much thinner.

Jared Goff - QB California
6'4" 205
He is a little thin but does throw a very nice ball.  His delivery seemed quick to me which is a good thing when he starts processing the NFL defenses.  He showed nice touch on the ball when necessary but could zing it in as well.  He goes through his reads very fast, seemingly too fast at times.  He will not be mistaken for Michael Vick.  He is just athletic enough to escape the pocket but don't look for many 20+ yard runs.  Maybe closer to Russell Wilson type speed.

Paxton Lynch - QB Memphis
6'6" 225
Lynch is a very big athletic quarterback.  He ran the spread at Memphis so his numbers could be deceiving.  He is very mobile and uses his legs well.  It is hard to tell if his talents will translate to the NFL.  Many spread quarterbacks have not panned out but Lynch has a different physical skill set than most from this type of system.

Connor Cook - QB Michigan State
6'4" 220
There are tons of similarities between Connor Cook and Kirk Cousins.  You will hear it a million times between now and the end of time.  They both went to MSU, are mobile, occasionally accurate, will force bad throws, and the same size.  Sometimes comparing QB's is too easy.  In this case, I think it is right on point.  

Wide Receivers

Laquon Treadwell - WR Ole Miss
6'2" 210
I think a lot of people are going to fall in love with this kids size.  I just didn't see anything that blew me away.  He does not have amazing speed, but that is not required to be an NFL WR.  It certainly does help to become an elite NFL WR.  His lack of top end speed will hinder him from a route tree point of view.  Will not have tons of opportunities down the field.  Not tremendous in the open field, but has great hands.  Will have a lot of catches, might make a good PPR type WR.

Michael Thomas - WR Ohio State
6'3" 210
Thomas is a big physical kid that wants to catch the football.  Lacks elite level speed but makes up for it in his size.  Will be a very nice possession receiver and red zone threat.  Ideal size and strength for those short yardage looks.

Will Fuller - WR Notre Dame
6'0" 180
Speed, speed, and more speed.  Fuller has the ability to take the top off any defense.  Very few college DB's had the speed to stay with Fuller.  He has some TY Hilton to his game, but Hilton makes more defenders miss in open spaces.  I don't see him as a WR1 for any offense but will make a nice complementary piece helping open up the field.  He might run a sub 4.4 at the combine.  He finds himself behind defenses over and over again.