Wednesday, November 25, 2015

Week 12 Rushing Match Ups

NFL 5 Worst Rushing Defenses (Yards Given Up)
28.  Philadelphia - 1285 - 3
29.  New Orleans - 1312 - 7
30.  Washington - 1360 - 5
31.  Miami - 1386 - 8
32.  Cleveland - 1388 - 9

You may notice, the leagues worst rush defenses in terms of yards given up, have not given up a tremendous amount of TD's.

NFL 5 Worst Rushing Defenses (TD's Given Up)
28.  Dallas - 1047 - 10
29.  San Fran - 1062 - 10
30.  Atlanta - 874 - 11
31.  San Diego - 1259 - 12
32.  Detroit - 1167 - 15

Atlanta ranks 1st in rushing yards given up yet 30th in rushing TD's given up.  The Falcons have given up 0 rushing TD's over the last four games.  Five of the eleven rushing TD's the Falcons have given up were to two different players.  Joseph Randle (3 and no longer in league) and Mark Ingram (2).


The NFL sure does move fast.  As Charcandrick West was last week's bargain of the week, Marshawn Lynch goes downs for 4-5 weeks paving a way for Thomas Rawls to be this week's bargain of the week.

1.  Thomas Rawls ($4500)
Seattle vs Pittsburgh
The Pittsburgh rush defense is solid but Rawls 255 combined yards and 2 TD game last week in Lynch's absence can not be ignored.  I do not expect another game like that from Rawls on the season however a 100+ yard and one TD day is not out of the question.  The Steelers rush defense, when faced against a workhorse back receiving 20+ carries, eventually gives way to the bruising back.

Steelers Against 20+ Carry RB's

Week 7 Charcandrick West - 22/110/1
Week 4 Justin Forsett - 27/150/0

The Steelers have found themselves facing more RBBC type backfields than the true workhorse back thus far.  While it is a small sample size, the Steelers appear to be vulnerable to a RB building up steam as the game progresses.  That is the exact type of RB Rawls is.

Week 11 Against San Fran - 30/209/1
Week 5 Against Cincinatti - 23/169/1
Week 3 Against Chicago - 16/109/0

Rawls feeds off the increased carries.  Again, Rawls has a very limited sample size with Lynch sitting in front of him, but in his sample size Rawls excels in this type of game script.  As noted in the passing match up section, if Russell Wilson can get the passing game going, Thomas Rawls could be in for another monster game against the Steelers.

2.  DeMarco Murray ($6100)
Philadelphia vs Detroit
The Lions have been very strong over the last two weeks against the run.  The Lions have not given up a ton of yardage over the last two week but did give up one TD to Latavius Murray last week.  The Lions rank dead last in rushing TD's given up and with Ryan Mathews (ruled out for Week 12) still sidelined with a concussion, DeMarco Murray is still a bargain to be had.

3.  TJ Yeldon ($4800)
Jacksonville vs San Diego
The Chargers are bad in giving up both yards and TD's against the run.  Yeldon is putting together a nice rookie season and is building into what could be a very strong sophomore season.  Yeldon has the tools to become a top tier NFL RB including a nice set of hands grabbing 27 balls out of the backfield.  The Chargers have given up big days to a very large variety of different RB's.



Week 11 - Spencer Ware - 11/96/2
Week 9 - Jeremy Langford - 18/72/1 Rushing
                                                 3/70/0 Receiving
Week 7 - Latavius Murray - 15/85/1
Week 6 - James Starks - 10/112/1 Rushing
                                          1/5/1 Receiving
Week 5 - LeVeon Bell - 21/111/1
Week 4 - Duke Johnson - 9/85/1 - Receiving
Week 3 - Adrian Peterson - 20/126/2
Week 2 - Gio Bernard - 20/123/0

4.  Javorius Allen ($4600)
Baltimore vs Cleveland
Buck Allen steps into a #1 role.  Unfortunately for him, he steps into a #1 role with an unbelievably lousy offense on a team who has now lost their top QB, RB, and WR trio on the season.  This one is hard to endorse only because Matt Schaub should have a terrible day and a terrible affect on the rest of this offense.  The Ravens are playing against one of the worst rushing defenses in the NFL so the price is just right for to give it a try.  Fire up Buck Allen for your GPP cards.

5.  Alfred Blue ($4500)
Houston vs New Orleans
Alfred Blue is not a special talent on the field but if you are looking for an inexpensive flex play,  you can do much worse.  Unless the Saints turn things around in a major way on defense, every offensive player is viable against them.  The Texans have been playing amazing defense over the last several
weeks allowing the their offense to be a little more liberal.  If the Texans can again get an early lead, Alfed Blue could be in for some serious late game salting time.  If you are a gambling type of person, I would toss him into either a GPP or Cash line up card.

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