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Once you deposit your hard earned money into your new Draft Kings/Fan Duel account, it has a Vegas feeling to it. It is Thursday afternoon, the casino's are hopping, and your money is set to last you all weekend.
The only problem is, you didn't budget your money or time correctly, played all the wrong table games, and are now out of money...It's Friday morning. This makes for a very expensive trip to the ATM. I would assume not make a trip to the ATM during the season. I want to hold my cash as long as I possibly can.
Let's try to avoid being out of cash on Friday morning.
1. Take it easy on the $1M games. Let's face it folks, those games are there for the same reason a Lamborghini sits in the middle of the casino. Sure, someone may win it one day, it is just VERY unlikely to be you. I am not saying avoid these games entirely, just don't dump a ton of money into them. Walk away from the progressive slot machine after a few pulls. I may enter one or two per weekend. Sometimes I won't enter any.
2. Limit the number of contests you enter. If you pop $100 into your account, don't spend your full $100 on one pull of that slot machine. Spread it out. I will typically only play about 10-20% of my bankroll each week. If you are OK with dumping more money into the machine, by all means, dump away. For me, I would much prefer to spread my risk out and try playing all season long.
3. Play those cash games. Cash games are where you can really make pretty good money. What is a cash game? H2H and 50/50 (also called double ups) type contests. I prefer to get into the larger 50/50 contests. I MUCH prefer a 50/50 contest with over 100 people in it. The more the merrier. There are tons of sharks out there who will gladly take your money. If you are in a 10 person 50/50 contest and three of them are sharks, your chances of winning money have been severely reduced. If you get into a 1000 person 50/50 contest with some sharks included, your chances haven't been nearly as diluted. If you check the contestants, you will start noticing the same names. You can't avoid them entirely, just reduce your risk.
4. Try a couple line ups. I will typically have 2-4 different line ups. This will again help spread your risk out. You will want a high ceiling line up for those huge GPP (Lamborghini) games. Players like Will Fuller will fit the mold this season. He has a super high ceiling but a floor that could be as low as 0. Fuller is NOT the kind of player you want in your CASH games. Your cash game players need to be more steady with less variation in their scoring. I believe Mark Ingram will make a prototypical cash player this season. He is a shoe in for a lot of work with good upside as well. He has very limited potential to score a zero unless he gets injured.
You will want to mix and match players you like any given week. As I write my articles, I will try to indicate just how I will use that player.
This week, I have indicated a player like Spencer Ware will make a good fit for ALL formats. This means I plan on using him for both cash and GPP contests.
By having multiple different line ups, you limit your exposure. If one of your main players gets hurt early on a Sunday afternoon...you could be done for early. If you have multiple line ups, that injury may not ruin your day.
5. Play less expensive entries. If you only have $100 in your account, don't go heavy on $10 contests. Play a bunch of $3 contests and see if you can build up your bankroll as opposed to sucking in dry in three weeks.
6. WATCH THE INJURY REPORTS!!!!!!!! I will check rosters throughout a weekend and constantly see rosters with injured players. Players that have been out for the entire week. If you enter a contest early in the week, don't forget to double check it before the contest starts!
7. Last, but certainly not least. Use TNF (Thursday Night Football) players sparingly. When the regular season gets going, TNF is usually a low scoring affair. The temptation to start players in the game is so great for many people, they can't lay off. I have seen countless rosters FILLED with players from TNF. When I say filled, I mean filled. These people have close to a 0% chance of winning money. They are literally donating money to the cause. Their donation increases our chances of winning money each and every time they do it. I will enter as many contests that include TNF players as possible. At the same token, I will almost NEVER use a player from TNF unless it's a match up I just can't lay off.
I appreciate any and all feedback. If you have any other tips I may have overlooked, email me or tweet me.
br_eilering@yahoo.com
@brian_eilering
Tuesday, September 6, 2016
Monday, September 5, 2016
Best Value's For Week 1
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I spent a minute identifying some players to avoid in Week 1, now let's spend some time mining for value. Finding the value play allows you to spend big at the important positions. Without these highly important value plays, you will end up with a roster filled with middle of the road players. Whether you are playing GPP or cash games, you need that steady expensive piece of the puzzle to help stabilize your line up.
The good news with your value players is they don't cost you much. In addition to that, they don't have to score a ton of points to get the ROI you are looking for.
These are the basic ROI you are looking for in the different games you may get into:
Cash Games = 3x multiplier
Example - Spencer Ware - $4400 x 3 = 13.2 Points
Demaryius Thomas - $7000 x 3 = 21 Points
Antonio Brown - $9800 x 3 = 29.4 Points
GPP Games = 4x multiplier
Example - Spencer Ware - $4400 x 4 = 17.6
Demaryius Thomas - $7000 x 4 = 28 Points
Antonio Brown - $9800 x 4 = 39.2 Points
As you can see, the more expensive a player gets, the harder it is for him to accomplish the multiplier affect needed to get the return on our investment. The more points your cheaper players score, the less your big dollar players have to score. Getting points from your value players is essential to you winning money vs simply donating to the cause.
Let's spend some time to find some players more likely to outproduce their ROI. I will try to keep this list under $5000 giving you some options to take advantage of some pricing inefficiencies.
UPDATE: With Chris Ivory INACTIVE, TJ Yeldon ($4100) makes a strong buy for Sunday games!
Dak Prescott ($5000) - He is a raw talent walking into a good looking situation. QB prices don't get cheaper than this. He should easily hit 3x value. He will make mistakes.
Spencer Ware ($4400) - Mentioned earlier, Jamal Charles will be very limited. Ware is the primary back up making him an RB1 for less than $5000. Best value on the board.
UPDATE: Jamal Charles ruled out
Kamar Aiken ($4700) - Aiken will be the first option on a pass heavy offense. Steve Smith isn't going to be himself while the TE options have dried up. Aiken is a sure fire value for Week 1.
Willie Snead ($4800) - Snead is a bit riskier. His performance will depend on the progress of Michael Thomas. Snead has some upside here but I don't feel as strong as I do with some others on the list.
Tyler Boyd ($3600) - Boyd is the clear WR2 alongside AJ Green. With Eifert on the shelf, Boyd will be given the opportunity to vastly outproduce his Week 1 price.
Melvin Gordon ($4600) - Decent looking match up with Justin Houston on PUP. Gordon will get the RB1 workload making his price fantastic.
Jeremy Langford ($4700) - Don't care for the match up but love the workload. Targets + Carries could equal 20 DK points. Only needs 14.1 for 3x value.
James White ($3600) - With Dion Lewis out, White could be in for a decent workload making his 3x and 4x value a very achievable goal.
I spent a minute identifying some players to avoid in Week 1, now let's spend some time mining for value. Finding the value play allows you to spend big at the important positions. Without these highly important value plays, you will end up with a roster filled with middle of the road players. Whether you are playing GPP or cash games, you need that steady expensive piece of the puzzle to help stabilize your line up.
The good news with your value players is they don't cost you much. In addition to that, they don't have to score a ton of points to get the ROI you are looking for.
These are the basic ROI you are looking for in the different games you may get into:
Cash Games = 3x multiplierExample - Spencer Ware - $4400 x 3 = 13.2 Points
Demaryius Thomas - $7000 x 3 = 21 Points
Antonio Brown - $9800 x 3 = 29.4 Points
GPP Games = 4x multiplier
Example - Spencer Ware - $4400 x 4 = 17.6
Demaryius Thomas - $7000 x 4 = 28 Points
Antonio Brown - $9800 x 4 = 39.2 Points
As you can see, the more expensive a player gets, the harder it is for him to accomplish the multiplier affect needed to get the return on our investment. The more points your cheaper players score, the less your big dollar players have to score. Getting points from your value players is essential to you winning money vs simply donating to the cause.
Let's spend some time to find some players more likely to outproduce their ROI. I will try to keep this list under $5000 giving you some options to take advantage of some pricing inefficiencies.
UPDATE: With Chris Ivory INACTIVE, TJ Yeldon ($4100) makes a strong buy for Sunday games!
Dak Prescott ($5000) - He is a raw talent walking into a good looking situation. QB prices don't get cheaper than this. He should easily hit 3x value. He will make mistakes.
Spencer Ware ($4400) - Mentioned earlier, Jamal Charles will be very limited. Ware is the primary back up making him an RB1 for less than $5000. Best value on the board.
UPDATE: Jamal Charles ruled out
Kamar Aiken ($4700) - Aiken will be the first option on a pass heavy offense. Steve Smith isn't going to be himself while the TE options have dried up. Aiken is a sure fire value for Week 1.
Willie Snead ($4800) - Snead is a bit riskier. His performance will depend on the progress of Michael Thomas. Snead has some upside here but I don't feel as strong as I do with some others on the list.
Tyler Boyd ($3600) - Boyd is the clear WR2 alongside AJ Green. With Eifert on the shelf, Boyd will be given the opportunity to vastly outproduce his Week 1 price.
Melvin Gordon ($4600) - Decent looking match up with Justin Houston on PUP. Gordon will get the RB1 workload making his price fantastic.
Jeremy Langford ($4700) - Don't care for the match up but love the workload. Targets + Carries could equal 20 DK points. Only needs 14.1 for 3x value.
James White ($3600) - With Dion Lewis out, White could be in for a decent workload making his 3x and 4x value a very achievable goal.
Top Overpriced Players Week 1
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I typically give you the top five or so players at each position. in my notes section below, many of the players I will be using are mentioned. I will spend a few minutes discussing some players I very quickly skipped over while selecting my LU's.
Big named and priced players not playing: Tom Brady, Tony Romo, LaVeon Bell, Dion Lewis, Jamal Charles
UPDATE: Thomas Rawls to see limited action in Week 1. For his price of $6000, I would shy away from using him in DFS.
Cam Newton ($7700)
Carolina -3
Denver 41.5
Thursday Night Football special. Trust me, DFS players all across this land will be firing Newton into their line ups. This game will be a defensive struggle minimizing any consistent points from any one player. I would much rather spend my cash on a more predictable high output game like Oakland vs New Orleans whose game total is 51.
Jamal Charles ($7100)
San Diego +7
KC Chiefs 44.5
Charles is priced as if he were 100%. He is not, in fact, Spencer Ware ($4400) is the better buy here. The Chargers rush defense is subpar allowing for someone to shine in this offense. I would much rather pony up the cash for Ware and leave the big priced Charles for other folks.
UPDATE: Charles is now ruled out per Andy Reid
Carlos Hyde ($5600)
LA Rams -2.5
San Fran 44
The 49ers are primed for a rough season. The Rams only allowed 7 rushing TD's last season. This offense is going to struggle to consistently move the ball. The total in this game is 44, I actually like the under here. This 49er team is not built similar to the Eagles team Chip Kelly took over a few years ago. The talent simply isn't there for him to strip away. There will be startable weeks for Hyde, this isn't one of them.
Jonathan Stewart ($5100)
Carolina -3
Denver 41.5
The Denver D was no mirage last year. It's just solid and that will carry over for this coming season. I like Stewart as a season long player but week 1 isn't the place to start him.
Alshon Jeffery ($7900)
Chicago +6
Houston 44
Chicago is only projected for 19 points in this game. The Texans only gave up one TD in the last four games of the season last year. I would lay off most Bears this week. My recency bias remembers a Texans D that refuse to allow points in 2015. I would much prefer Golden Tate for $7300. The Lions and Colts could be in for a shootout Week 1 (50.5 O/U).
Demaryius Thomas ($7000)
Carolina -3
Denver 41.5
Thomas had a terrible 2015. His drops were incredibly bad. He now inherits a young QB facing one of the toughest defenses in the NFL. This game has a low total and there is a lot stacking up against Thomas in this affair. I will fade Thomas most of the season until he proves he can consistently catch the ball. I would prefer Donte Moncrief ($6000).
DeVante Parker ($5300)
Miami +10.5
Seattle 44
I don't think Parker is ready for the big time just yet. He may not even be ready physically for Week 1. Gase has made it clear he isn't impressed with Parker spending more time in the training room than on the football field. Parker will easily underperform his price. Marvin Jones ($4600) makes a lot more sense and $700 cheaper.
UPDATE: DeVante Parker remains sidelined.
Email: br_eilering@yahoo.com
Twitter:@Brian_Eilering
I typically give you the top five or so players at each position. in my notes section below, many of the players I will be using are mentioned. I will spend a few minutes discussing some players I very quickly skipped over while selecting my LU's.
Big named and priced players not playing: Tom Brady, Tony Romo, LaVeon Bell, Dion Lewis, Jamal Charles
UPDATE: Thomas Rawls to see limited action in Week 1. For his price of $6000, I would shy away from using him in DFS.
Cam Newton ($7700)
Carolina -3
Denver 41.5
Jamal Charles ($7100)
San Diego +7
KC Chiefs 44.5
Charles is priced as if he were 100%. He is not, in fact, Spencer Ware ($4400) is the better buy here. The Chargers rush defense is subpar allowing for someone to shine in this offense. I would much rather pony up the cash for Ware and leave the big priced Charles for other folks.
UPDATE: Charles is now ruled out per Andy Reid
Carlos Hyde ($5600)
LA Rams -2.5
San Fran 44
The 49ers are primed for a rough season. The Rams only allowed 7 rushing TD's last season. This offense is going to struggle to consistently move the ball. The total in this game is 44, I actually like the under here. This 49er team is not built similar to the Eagles team Chip Kelly took over a few years ago. The talent simply isn't there for him to strip away. There will be startable weeks for Hyde, this isn't one of them.
Jonathan Stewart ($5100)
Carolina -3
Denver 41.5
The Denver D was no mirage last year. It's just solid and that will carry over for this coming season. I like Stewart as a season long player but week 1 isn't the place to start him.
Alshon Jeffery ($7900)
Chicago +6Houston 44
Chicago is only projected for 19 points in this game. The Texans only gave up one TD in the last four games of the season last year. I would lay off most Bears this week. My recency bias remembers a Texans D that refuse to allow points in 2015. I would much prefer Golden Tate for $7300. The Lions and Colts could be in for a shootout Week 1 (50.5 O/U).
Demaryius Thomas ($7000)
Carolina -3
Denver 41.5
Thomas had a terrible 2015. His drops were incredibly bad. He now inherits a young QB facing one of the toughest defenses in the NFL. This game has a low total and there is a lot stacking up against Thomas in this affair. I will fade Thomas most of the season until he proves he can consistently catch the ball. I would prefer Donte Moncrief ($6000).
DeVante Parker ($5300)
Miami +10.5
Seattle 44
I don't think Parker is ready for the big time just yet. He may not even be ready physically for Week 1. Gase has made it clear he isn't impressed with Parker spending more time in the training room than on the football field. Parker will easily underperform his price. Marvin Jones ($4600) makes a lot more sense and $700 cheaper.
UPDATE: DeVante Parker remains sidelined.
Email: br_eilering@yahoo.com
Twitter:
Sunday, September 4, 2016
Week 1 Notes
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I have been so busy with work, I simply haven't had a chance to write this summer. With DFS picking back up in the NFL, I couldn't leave it alone. I jumped right in and made some line ups. I thought I would share my thoughts with those that are interested.
Last season was strong. I tripled my money on Draft Kings and I'm aiming to accomplish that once again.
For now, here are some random notes:
The Raiders stack is strong against the weak Saints defense. The Saints did very little to improve defensively, there is no reason to shy away from attacking this poor defense. I would feel comfortable using any combination of Carr, Murray, Crabtree, Walford, and Cooper. This would make a great stack in your GPP contests.
Rashad Jennings represents tremendous value at $5400. All signs point to him getting the lions share of the RB work. He is a strong pass catcher as well. The Giants are facing a Dallas D missing TONS of players up front. Jennings is a safe play in all formats.
I know you will all be tempted to tee up players in Thursday Night Football. I said it all last year but I will say it again...get into contests with TNF players but DON'T use the players. Week 1 is no different. In fact, I would highly encourage you to fire up tons of contest with TNF in Week 1. Everyone will be itching to get back in the game and will likely use plenty of players. It's a great advantage to have for week 1.
Spencer Ware for $4400 is an enormous bargain. Charles will be limited and Ware made it clear he's the primary backup. Ware could get 20+ touches. I will be sure to work him into several line ups.
Melvin Gordon has some negative bias following him from last season. His price at $4600 is quite attractive for a RB that should get a full workload. The Chiefs only gave up 7 rushing TD's but Justin Houston is starting the season on the PUP list. Gordon should be in for 20+ carries making him a great deal for week 1.
Eli Manning ($7500) is a good deal. Cam Newton is $7700 but facing that tough Denver D on TNF. I would much prefer to use Manning for $200 less facing the Dallas D missing most of their front 7. Dallas might be in for long afternoon.
Martellus Bennett ($3400) makes a lot of sense. He will get his share of targets. Even with Brady out, Bennett will see plenty of balls. This price makes him very attractive.
The Titans Defense ($2600) was middle of the road last year. They are a strong play this week against Minnesota who will likely be forced to start Shaun Hill in week 1 as they continue to get Sam Bradford up to speed on their offense. The total is currently off the Vegas board but I think it will be around 40 when it comes on.There is a fair chance it ends up being the lowest total on the NFL slate this weekend.
The Titans check off most the boxes I'm looking for:
1. Low Vegas Total
2. Home Team
3. Facing New QB
4. Vegas Favorite?
Kamar Aiken ($4700) should get double digit targets in Trestman's pass heavy offense. Steve Smith isn't going to be himself. Buck Allen will get some out of backfield. Ben Watson is out for year. All signs point to Aiken getting volume and his price is off to start the year. He will be a $5500 WR by week 3.
Email: br_eilering@yahoo.com
Twitter: @Brian_Eilering
I have been so busy with work, I simply haven't had a chance to write this summer. With DFS picking back up in the NFL, I couldn't leave it alone. I jumped right in and made some line ups. I thought I would share my thoughts with those that are interested.
Last season was strong. I tripled my money on Draft Kings and I'm aiming to accomplish that once again.
For now, here are some random notes:
The Raiders stack is strong against the weak Saints defense. The Saints did very little to improve defensively, there is no reason to shy away from attacking this poor defense. I would feel comfortable using any combination of Carr, Murray, Crabtree, Walford, and Cooper. This would make a great stack in your GPP contests.
Rashad Jennings represents tremendous value at $5400. All signs point to him getting the lions share of the RB work. He is a strong pass catcher as well. The Giants are facing a Dallas D missing TONS of players up front. Jennings is a safe play in all formats.
I know you will all be tempted to tee up players in Thursday Night Football. I said it all last year but I will say it again...get into contests with TNF players but DON'T use the players. Week 1 is no different. In fact, I would highly encourage you to fire up tons of contest with TNF in Week 1. Everyone will be itching to get back in the game and will likely use plenty of players. It's a great advantage to have for week 1.
Spencer Ware for $4400 is an enormous bargain. Charles will be limited and Ware made it clear he's the primary backup. Ware could get 20+ touches. I will be sure to work him into several line ups.
Melvin Gordon has some negative bias following him from last season. His price at $4600 is quite attractive for a RB that should get a full workload. The Chiefs only gave up 7 rushing TD's but Justin Houston is starting the season on the PUP list. Gordon should be in for 20+ carries making him a great deal for week 1.
Eli Manning ($7500) is a good deal. Cam Newton is $7700 but facing that tough Denver D on TNF. I would much prefer to use Manning for $200 less facing the Dallas D missing most of their front 7. Dallas might be in for long afternoon.
Martellus Bennett ($3400) makes a lot of sense. He will get his share of targets. Even with Brady out, Bennett will see plenty of balls. This price makes him very attractive.
The Titans Defense ($2600) was middle of the road last year. They are a strong play this week against Minnesota who will likely be forced to start Shaun Hill in week 1 as they continue to get Sam Bradford up to speed on their offense. The total is currently off the Vegas board but I think it will be around 40 when it comes on.There is a fair chance it ends up being the lowest total on the NFL slate this weekend.
The Titans check off most the boxes I'm looking for:
1. Low Vegas Total
2. Home Team
3. Facing New QB
4. Vegas Favorite?
Kamar Aiken ($4700) should get double digit targets in Trestman's pass heavy offense. Steve Smith isn't going to be himself. Buck Allen will get some out of backfield. Ben Watson is out for year. All signs point to Aiken getting volume and his price is off to start the year. He will be a $5500 WR by week 3.
Email: br_eilering@yahoo.com
Twitter: @Brian_Eilering
Sunday, January 24, 2016
Running Back - Jordan Howard - Indiana
Jordan Howard - RB Indiana
6'1" 230
Howard has very good size for the position. He runs well between the tackles and is not easily brought down by arm tackles. He will pick up the blitz (1:15 in the clip) and catch the screen allowing him to play on all three downs. He was limited in passing situations at Indiana but did show the ability. He does not have blazing speed, but often will get past the first line of defense with his strength. He does not shy away from contact, he will make the secondary pay for the collision. He will put his foot in the ground and make a strong initial cut. He is extremely strong constantly breaking arm tackles. NFL defenses will certainly be harder to get through, but he shows a strong desire to keep his legs moving and keep the play going. He shows patience waiting for the hole to open up. He plays strong in short yardage and goal line situations.
Best Comparison: Think Chris Ivory (6'0" 222 lbs). Ivory is similar in size and running ability. Ivory is a violent runner excelling between the tackles but can stretch the run out as well.
Saturday, January 23, 2016
Wide Receiver - Corey Coleman - Baylor
Corey Coleman - WR Baylor
5'11" 190 lbs
Coleman does his most dangerous work on the outside running vertical routes. 1:40 into the clip, you will see his speed as he breaks away from the defender, catch the deep ball, and finish the play with a touchdown. He has the speed to stretch the field forcing additional help from the opposing teams secondary. He lacks the ideal size to develop into a true #1 WR but is superbly dangerous as the true deep threat. His quickness would make him a great slot receiver though he has shown some uncertainty about going across the middle at times. He has a ton of John Brown qualities to his game. John Brown does a great job of complimenting both Larry Fitzgerald and Michael Floyd. Coleman seems to fit that same mold as takes his game to the NFL.
Wide Receiver - Tyler Boyd - Pittsburgh
Tyler Boyd - WR Pittsburgh
6'2" 200lbs
Boyd is another tall thin receiver. Boyd has a natural instinct to high point the ball and a strong desire to catch it! He catches the ball well in traffic and with defenders draped all over him. He has the speed to slice through the defense and take it to the house. He has tons of athletic and leaping ability. Roughly, 1:40 into the clip, you will see his athletic ability leaping over the defender in full stride during a punt return. He shows his ability to be physical while fighting for the ball. He was consistently double covered yet still had 91 receptions his Junior year at Pittsburgh. Boyd needs to add some weight through muscle mass so he is not pushed around by opposing DBs'. There will comparables to fellow Pitt Panther Larry Fitzgerald over the coming months. Boyd is leaner than Fitzgerald but does have many of the other physical traits.
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