Week 13 Ownership Percentage For TNF

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Thursday Night Football continues to provide for some interesting DFS results.  Last night was no
different where the last play of the game with 0:00 left on the clock could have catapulted someone into huge payday.

Here is a sampling of ownership percentages from two of the contests I entered on DraftKings.  I am providing percentages from one GPP contest and from one cash contest.

GPP Contest 

NFL $500K KICKOFF SPECIAL [$50K TO 1ST!] (THU)

Player	% Owned	Price	Points	FP/$
Calvin Johnson	18.90%	$7,600	13.4	1.76
Eddie Lacy	16.60%	$5,000	1.1	0.22
Matthew Stafford	13.20%	$6,100	18	2.95
Randall Cobb	11.50%	$6,600	12.8	1.93
Aaron Rodgers	9.90%	$7,200	26.62	3.69
Golden Tate	5.70%	$4,800	14.6	3.04
Theo Riddick	4.90%	$3,500	8.1	2.31
James Jones	4.70%	$4,600	2.9	0.63
Davante Adams	3.80%	$4,400	12.1	2.75
Richard Rodgers	3.70%	$3,100	31.6	10.1
Eric Ebron	2.10%	$3,200	8.9	2.78
Packers D/ST	1.90%	$3,100	5	1.61
Ameer Abdullah	1.50%	$3,700	6.7	1.81
Detroit D/ST	1.20%	$2,400	5	2.08
James Starks	0.90%	$4,500	11	2.44
Joique Bell	0.30%	$3,300	5	1.51

Cash Contest 

NFL GIANT $10 DOUBLE UP [$60,000 GUARANTEED] (THU)

Player	% Owned	Price	Points	FP/$
Calvin Johnson	10.60%	$7,600	13.4	1.76
Eddie Lacy	8.40%	$5,000	1.1	0.22
Matthew Stafford	4.50%	$6,100	18	2.95
Randall Cobb	3.10%	$6,600	12.8	1.93
Aaron Rodgers	2.70%	$7,200	26.62	3.69
Golden Tate	1.60%	$4,800	14.6	3.04
Davante Adams	1.50%	$4,400	12.1	2.75
Theo Riddick	1.30%	$3,500	8.1	2.31
James Jones	1.20%	$4,600	2.9	0.63
Richard Rodgers	1.10%	$3,100	31.6	10.1
Eric Ebron	0.70%	$3,200	8.9	2.78
Packers D/ST	0.60%	$3,100	5	1.61
Ameer Abdullah	0.30%	$3,700	6.7	1.81
Detroit D/ST	0.30%	$2,400	5	2.08
James Starks	0.20%	$4,500	11	2.44
Joique Bell	0.10%	$3,300	5	1.51

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Week 13 D/ST Plays

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There are a few good rules of thumb when considering a D/ST in any format.


1.  Low Vegas Point Total
2.  Home Team
3.  Facing A New/Inexperienced QB
4.  Favorite in Vegas

You don't have to check off each one of these bullet points, it's just a good place to start when considering your selection.

Since the line constantly changes throughout the week, I am going to use the opening Vegas line as our baseline.

1.  Washington ($2300)
Dallas 42
Washington -3
It just so happens, Washington puts a check mark next to each of our rules to follow.  That doesn't happen very happen.  The fact they are the 4th cheapest D/ST on the DK board is just gravy.  We all know Dallas didn't win a single game when Romo was out previously in the season.  Washington is actually leading the division right now looking to create some separation between themselves and the Giants.  This game has the second lowest total on the day at 42.  Fire up the Washington D/ST with confidence, save your money, and gladly spend it elsewhere.

2.  New England ($3400)
New England -13
Philadelphia 48.5
The Patriots do check off two items from our cheat sheet.  While this game has a very high total (Carolina/NO only one higher), the Patriots being such a heavy favorite at home weighs heavy here.  Of the 48.5 point total, the Eagles are only projected to score 17.5 of those points (If you would like to know how I came to that number, just ask).  The Patriots have not lost two games in a row dating back to 2012 which covers a 56 game stretch.   If the Eagles continue to slip into free fall mode, this game could really get ugly.  Chip Kelly is thought to be out of Philadelphia by years end and it doesn't feel like this team is playing for much right now.

3.  Cincinnati ($3400)
Cincinnati -7.5
Cleveland 43.5
Really, the only thing missing here is Cincinnati playing on the road.  Otherwise, this has dream match up written all over it.  The poor Browns will be starting Austin Davis who believe it or not is a very aggressive passer.  Last year in limited action, Davis threw 12 TD's to his 9 INT's.  Not really the ratio we're going for.  The Browns are projected for 18 points in the home divisional game.  Usually, you would prefer to shy away from a road team in a divisional match up.  It doesn't bother me here.  The Bengals are a far superior team and have forced 6 INT's over the last three weeks.  They check off enough boxes for me to feel quite comfortable with them.

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Week 13 Hail Mary Plays

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I have a $3500 cutoff for Hail Mary Plays.  I do sometimes cheat and creep over the line but I try to stick to my own set of rules.  Since two of my Hail Mary Plays were already covered in my RB write ups this week, I will add a couple more players.

1.  C.J. Anderson ($3500)
Denver vs San Diego
I hi-lighted Anderson in my RB plays this week.  He is my #1 Hail Mary Play for Week 13.


2.  David Johnson ($3400)
Arizona vs St. Louis
David Johnson may get the most volume of any players in this list.  If you  are looking to load up at QB or WR, using Anderson and Johnson at RB will allow you to do so.

3.  DeVante Parker ($3300)
Miami vs Baltimore
Parker has the talent to become an elite WR in the NFL.  He has the size/speed combo (6'3", 209lbs/4.45 40) to make defenses pay extra attention to him.  Jarvis Landry has proven to be a tremendous possession WR that Tannehill is willing to trust.  Parker is the down field threat the Dolphins can use to stretch the field.  Parker saw 10 targets in Week 12 against the Jets turning those targets into 4/80/1.  The Ravens weakness is their secondary.  If the Dolphins attack the Ravens through the air, Parker could be in for a very nice day.  He is a great value for just $3300.  He defines a Hail Mary Play.

4.  Vance McDonald ($3000)
San Francisco vs Chicago
This feels weird to even say but Blaine Gabbert actually looks like an NFL QB.  I never thought I would ever say that in my lifetime.  Since Gabbert has taken the 49er offense over, McDonald has both an uptick in targets as well as production.  He has scored in each of the last two weeks and also led the team in Red Zone targets in that same span.  McDonald has a relatively high floor and should have no problem hitting 4x value.

5.  Scott Chandler ($2500)
New England vs Philadelphia
Everyone in every DFS circle is talking about Scott Chandler this week and rightfully so.  I am no different.  You can see my write up on Chandler here. 

6.  Ted Ginn ($3600)
Carolina vs New Orleans
It's just so easy to pick on the Saints but sometimes you just go with what is easy.  When you are shopping in this price range, you are going to deal with boom/bust type players.  The idea is to pick their boom weeks.  This week could easily be a boom week for Ginn.  I do believe a large amount of volume will go to the more likely suspects but there is big plays to be had against the Saints.  Ginn has big plays in him.  He is an obvious GPP play due to his extremely LOW floor.  Just last week against the Cowboys, he was held catch-less offering owners a zero point day.

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Week 13 Tight End Plays

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Boy is it loaded at the top for TE's this week.  The stars have aligned due to injuries to some key players at the position.  Scott Chandler may be one of the more highly owned players in DFS this week but the options are abundant if you are willing to spend the cash to make it happen.  Let's take a look.

I'm just going to take them in order of price.  I'm not saying they are interchangeable but the top three TE's this week are extraordinarily attractive.

1.  Greg Olsen ($6400)
Carolina vs New Orleans
Toss Olsen into the mix of Carolina players maximizing the potential against this pathetic Saints defense.  Back in Week 3, Olsen rolled the Saints for 8/134/2.  Just a few weeks later, Delanie Walker put up similar numbers posting 7/95/2 in Week 9.  The Saints have proven they don't think it is necessary to cover or tackle anyone.  Olsen has two 100+ yard games on the season, there is statistical evidence supporting he has another one in Week 13.  Olsen is a strong GPP and cash game player.

2.  Tyler Eifert ($5800)
Cincinnati vs Cleveland
Assuming Eifert is healthy, which as of Wednesday evening is an unknown, Eifert can easily pay himself off the 3x salary we are looking for.  The Ravens  were able to take down the Browns this past week led by Matt Schaub, Jarvorius Allen, Kamar Aiken, and Chris Givens.    This Bengals offense is FAR superior to the Ravens offense that just put up two offensive TD's against the Browns in Week 12.  The Bengals are favored by 7.5 in this contest and could easily win by a full two TD's.  Eifert leads the team with 16 RZ targets of which he has turned those into a league leading 12 receiving TD's.  Eifert is another strong option at TE no matter what contest you want to enter.

3.  Travis Kelce ($4700)
KC vs Oakland
The Raiders are once again a mess against the pass.  They are ranked 29th in yardage and have also surrendered 19 TD's through the air.  Oakland also once again is offering up points to TE's in bunches.  Of their 19 passing TD's allowed, 11 have been to a TE.  This could be a tough divisional fight with the possibility of some back and forth scoring taking place.  Andy Reid has been somewhat mystical as to when he wants to include Kelce in his plans but this match up certainly has the potential to see more Kelce.

4.  Scott Chandler ($2500)
New England vs Philadelphia
Look, Chandler is not the athlete Gronkowski is.  He doesn't have to be with Brady dropping the ball on a dime with nearly every drop back.  The Eagles have given up 5 passing TD's in each of the last two weeks and seem to have mailed it in on the season.  It is unknown if Amendola will play this week but his status does not change the price of Chandler.  Chandler only needs 7.5 points to reach his 3x value in DraftKings.  It seems he could do that in the first quarter.  It is easy to make a case for Chandler from both an offensive prospective and a defensive prospective.   In the absence of Gronkowski, Chandler posted a 5/58/1 stat line in limited action.

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Week 13 RB Plays

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I like to break down rushing defenses into two different categories.  1.  Yardage  2.  TD's

Yardage

RK	TEAM	ATT	YDS	YDS/A	LONG	TD	YDS/G
27	Philadelphia	320	1393	4.4	84	4	126.6
	Washington	297	1393	4.7	70	5	126.6
29	Chicago	295	1414	4.8	30	3	128.5
30	New Orleans	304	1479	4.9	45	8	134.5
31	Cleveland	326	1492	4.6	54	9	135.6
32	Miami	360	1523	4.2	48	9	138.5

TD's

RK	TEAM	ATT	YDS	YDS/A	LONG	TD	YDS/G
27	Green Bay	297	1241	4.2	55	10	112.8
28	Dallas	289	1176	4.1	39	11	106.9
29	San Diego	278	1361	4.9	65	12	123.7
	San Francisco	324	1332	4.1	71	12	121.1
31	Atlanta	285	1065	3.7	37	13	96.8
32	Detroit	310	1237	4	75	15	112.5

While the Lions have given up a league worst 15 rushing TD's, it should be noted they have only given up one over the last three weeks since the start of their much better play.

1.  DeAngelo Williams ($5600)
Pittsburgh vs Indianapolis
Williams ability to catch the pass makes him extremely valuable on DraftKings.  The Colts rank 24th in rushing yards given up and have only given up 9 rushing TD's thus far.  With Roethlisberger healthy, the entire Steelers cast are more than viable DFS options.  Williams price is extremely attractive.  This game is tied for the second highest total of the day at 48.5.  The Steelers  (-6) are
projected for 27 of the 48.5 making them the third highest projected total of the day behind New England and Carolina.  Williams role will be two fold here.  Role 1:  As Roethlisberger continues to attempt 45+ passes per game, Williams will continue to benefit.  In six games where Williams played in more than 50 snaps, he has totaled 19 receptions.  Role 2: The assumption is, the Steelers will get a lead (favored by 6) and need to finish off the game by running the ball.  While I don't see this Steeler offense playing it too safe, there will be a time when running the ball is critical.  Williams continues to show he still has the wheels to break open the long run.  In his somewhat limited time, he has long runs of 28, 55, and 53 on the season.  Williams looks like a great play for both GPP and cash game line ups for Week 13.

2.  Jonathan Stewart ($5300)
Carolina vs New Orleans
Ironically enough, there are many similarities we can share between Jonathan Stewart and DeAndgelo Williams going into Week 13.  The biggest difference is the Saints.  Even with this being an NFC South match up, the Panthers (-7) should get up BIG in this game.  This game is the highest total (49.5) of the week and while Newton pillages many of the rushing TD's, Stewart should receive a large volume of work.  While he hasn't been extensively in the passing game this year, he certainly has that ability.  The Saints are an obvious train wreck on defense and have given up a horrendous amount of receiving yards to opposing RB's.  Stewart averages 20 rushes per game and should see a bit more this week when the Panthers get up.  This game shapes up for Stewart to be a strong suggestion for both GPP and cash contests.  I have a green light on Stewart this week.

3.  Javorius Allen ($5400)
Baltimore vs Miami
The Dolphins are giving up 138.5 YPG on the ground this season.  Javorius Allen is the last man standing in the Baltimore backfield and looks pretty good doing it.  He was a rookie I liked very much coming into the season.  Allen will get a full rushing workload and will add several catches to
his day as well.  The poor Dolphins are stuck in the mud at this point in the season with very little to play for.  Matt Schaub will slow down any offense he touches.  He loves sharing the ball with both teams.  I don't see a large amount of offensive production from the Ravens as a whole but I do see Allen as a nice bargain this week at his price against a terrible rush defense.

4.  C.J. Anderson ($3500)
Denver vs San Diego
Remember when Anderson saved fantasy football seasons about this time a year ago?  It sure feels like it could happen again.  As the Broncos are running the Kubiak offense correctly, the running game is cooking!  I want a part of it and for the price of $3500, it's really hard to turn down.  Anderson's power running style fits this scheme and makes him a terrific GL back.  He has nice hands adding to his DraftKings value this week against a weak Chargers defense.  He will be part of a committee, but quite honestly, both he and Hillman ($4500) will have value this week.  The price reduction of $1K and his better fit in this offense makes him more appealing to my eyes.  He does make a better GPP play than cash due to his low floor.

5.  David Johnson ($3400)
Arizona vs St. Louis
Truth be told, I did not like what I saw from David Johnson when I was doing my season long fantasy research.  I haven't wavered a ton from my initial research but I have a little.  What I do like is he comes into one of NFL's most potent offenses as the lead rusher with a very good set of hands as a
receiver.  Johnson will get his touches in large volume and that is hard to shy away from for less than $3500.  The Rams have not been tremendous against the rush.  Recently, they have given up big games to Jeremy Hill (16/86/0), Jeremy Langford (20/73/1 rushing & 7/109/1 receiving), and Adrian Peterson (29/125/1).  If the Rams continue to sputter on offense, the field may be short for Arizona throughout the game.  I don't know how high the ceiling is for Johnson this week but do think he has a very high floor making him a better cash play than GPP for Week 13.

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Week 13 WR Plays

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It's time to piggyback off of some of our QB research as we work our way through some of the top WR plays for Week 13.

1. A.J. Green ($7600)
Cincinnati vs Cleveland
I really don't like chasing TD's, in fact, I never chase TD's.  I prefer to look at the match ups and see what we can exploit moving into the coming week of football.  For some reason, the Rams chose not Green scored an easy 9 yard TD. The Browns come into Week 13 as the 25th ranked pass defense allowing 21 TD's and 265 YPG.  Joe Haden has been in and out of the Browns secondary but has not been lights out when active.  Green has averaged 10 targets per game over the last five weeks.  A.J. Green is a high floor/high ceiling type of player and this is the kind of match up we are looking to take advantage of.  Green makes sense in cash games as well as GPP contests.
to cover the best football player on the field this past week where

2.  Allen Robinson ($7300)
Jacksonville vs Tennessee
As of Wednesday, it does not appear Allen Hurns will be able to play in Week 13.  Hurns was stretchered off the field and was admitted to the hospital in Week 12.  This will undoubtedly increase targets for Robinson, an emerging top 10 NFL WR.  The Titans have been pretty strong against the pass on the season however they have had some issues the last couple weeks.  In Week 12, Seth Roberts and Amari Cooper combined for 228 yards and 2 TD's against the Titans secondary.  The week before, Robinson got them for another 113 yards.  Allen Robinson has had his way with just about any DB opposing teams have put on him.  In Week 9, Robinson torched Darrelle Revis for 6 catches and 121 yards.  The only game Robinson was held in check was against the Carolina Panthers.  In Week 1 Josh Norman shut him down for 27 yards on just one catch.  Unless the Titans trade for Josh Norman this week, Robinson should have another solid 100+ yard and 1+ TD day.

3.  Alshon Jeffery ($6900)
Chicago vs San Francisco
The 49ers are a much better home team (3-3) than a road team (0-5).  They have a -119 point differential on the season and while Blaine Gabbert has surprisingly slowed the bleeding, this team
will have a top 5 pick in the upcoming draft and likely be looking to replace their one and done head coach.  This game is in Chicago and has a low total of 42.  The Bears are projected for 24 of those 42 points.  Jeffery is as healthy as he's going to get this season.  When healthy, Jeffery has received 12.8 targets per game.  He has efficiently turned those targets into 605 yards and 2 TD's over a 6 game span.  He's safe to fire up against a SF defense who has yielded big days to a plethora of varying WR's over the season.


4.  Emmanuel Sanders ($6500)
Denver Broncos vs San Diego
The Chargers come into Week 13 as the 22nd ranked pass defense and the 26th ranked defense allowing 12 rushing TD's on the season.  The Broncos are now running the Kubiak system as it was designed and that means allowing the run to set up the pass.  The running game is cooking right now which in turn makes the play action pass very difficult to defend.  Both Demaryius Thomas ($7200) and Emmanuel Sanders ($6500) should have chances for the "shot plays" down field.  Sanders is making money in the slot and ranks second on the team in targets while also leading the team in receiving TD's (4).   Both Thomas and Sanders are strong plays this week.  Sanders is a better cash game play while Thomas makes a better GPP.  Thomas' inconsistency makes him scary but also has that 2 TD game in him.

5.  Jeremy Maclin ($5200)
KC vs Oakland
Isn't it interesting when Alex Smith decides to push the ball down the field?  Maclin showed he can still catch the deep ball against the Bills in Week 12.  Not that any of us really ever questioned his ability to do so.  It was more about Alex Smith believing in his own ability to get it there.  Maclin
caught balls netting in plays of 41 (TD), 37, and 32 yards.  He now faces an Oakland secondary who is ranked 29th in the NFL against the pass.  Maclin continues to be targeted in large doses and he has been turning those into very nice games.  Due to his large volume, Maclin makes sense for both cash games as well as GPP tournament line ups.

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Week 13 Passing Match Ups

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I always like to start by searching for the worst ranked passing defenses before looking for our QB/WR values and premier plays.

RK	TEAM	ATT	COMP	PCT	YDS	YDS/A	TD	YDS/G
28	San Francisco	391	270	69.1	3045	8.1	17	277
29	Oakland	455	285	62.6	3110	7.1	19	283
30	Pittsburgh	423	284	67.1	3120	7.8	22	284
31	New Orleans	375	253	67.5	3126	8.8	30	284
32	NY Giants	439	292	66.5	3401	7.9	20	309

1.  Cam Newton ($7400)

Carolina vs New Orleans

It seems so easy to take advantage of the lackluster Saints defense each and every week but sometimes, you just don't out think the room.  The Saints are 31st against the pass and 30th against the run.  Cam Newton is excelling in both categories right now.  Newton is currently tied for 3rd in the NFL with seven rushing TD's including three of them over the last four weeks.  He has also piled up nine passing TD's in the same stretch.  The Saints continue to fall apart while the Panthers continue to dominate their opponents winning by an average margin of victory of 18 points over the last four weeks.  The Carolina defense puts their offense in good field position allowing them to score 30.2 PPG on average over the course of the season.

2.  Tom Brady ($8000)

New England vs Philadelphia

I realize I have selected the top two priced QB's coming into Week 13 however the Eagles are simply crumbling in front of our eyes.  They have given up five passing TD's in each of the last two games and 15 over the last four.  Brady is missing many weapons but continues to throw the ball 40 times a game.  If Gronkowski is out, look for Scott Chandler ($2500) and Brandon LaFell ($4800) to pick up the slack.  Brady and company coming off a loss to Denver and will be ready to get back on the winning track where they rarely lose two straight games in the Brady/Belichick era.  The last time they lost two in a row was back in 2012 which spans a 56 game streak.  This game is also in New England once again stacking the odds against the Eagles.

3.  Ryan Fitzpatrick ($5200)

NY Jets vs NY Giants

Fitzpatrick may be the best value QB on the DraftKings board this week.  The Giants are giving up a league worst 309 YPG on the NFL season.  Fitzpatrick will have a much lower ceiling than either Brady or Newton but his low floor makes him a safer pick this week.

4.  Matt Hasselbeck ($5300)

Indianapolis vs Pittsburgh

We are all aware Hasselbeck is 40 and his arm strength has diminished.  It should also be noted Frank Gore looks every bit of 32 right now.  As Chuck Pagano noted on Monday, Frank Gore is "beat to crap".   The Steelers are very strong stopping the run, this should lend to more passing situations for the Colts.  Similar to Fitzpatrick, Hasselbeck will not have gaudy numbers but his floor should be pretty low this week.  He is averaging 255 YPG and and 1.75 PTD per game.  Those numbers should tick up a bit against a Steelers secondary who really doesn't care to make tackles at times.  

5.  Brock Osweiler ($5200)

Denver vs San Diego

Over the last four weeks, the Chargers have given up 300+ yard games against Blake Bortles, Jay Cutler, and Joe Flacco.  Osweiler falls into the same category with Hasselbeck and Fitzpatrick where their ceiling is lower but so is their floor.  The Broncos ground game is now working with Osweiler running the Kubiak offense as it was designed.  This allow the entire offense to work more efficiently.  Demaryius Thomas was off his game against the Patriots on Sunday night but that didn't keep Osweiler from targeting him 13 times through the course of the game.  The tight ends are now again a part of the offense coupled with Emmanuel Sanders playing some very gritty work in the slot.  The Broncos offense will continue to improve as these pieces get to know each other and develop some chemistry.

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