Week 16 Hail Mary Plays

The Daily Fantasy Mintute:  Where your DFS advice is always free!

For those of you new to my column, I do Hail Mary plays each week.  My cutoff for a HM play is $3500.  By nature, a HM play has some more risk but thankfully I have been able to minimize your risk where I have hit on well over 50% of my HM plays.

I will cheat from time to time by going over the $3500 threshold.  When I do, I keep my cheating to a minimum.

1.  Rueben Randle ($3500)

NY Giants 45
Minnesota -4
Boy, I've been watching this story all week.  I was hoping like hell Randle would fit into my HM plays...here goes.  The Giants will officially be without Odell Beckham this week.  The NFL upheld the ruling so we can now plan accordingly.  I would never suggest Randle could replace ODB in any capacity but he sure will get his shot.  Between Randle and Will Tye, both will see a large increase in targets.  Randle is a big WR standing at 6'3" and 210 lbs.  He has big game potential in him.  Back in Week 7 he hauled in 7/116/1 against the Redskins.  Randle has had some issues with drops in the past but he also has the ability to make very nice catches.  Remember, at $3500, we don't need Randle to explode for 30 DraftKings points.  We really just need him to get us 10.5 points for our cash game plays and 14 points for GPP contests.  Anything beyond that is gravy.  Randle makes a tremendous cash game and GPP player.  I will not hesitate to fire him into every roster I put on DraftKings.

2.  Jay Ajayi ($3000)
Indianapolis 44
Miami -1
It looks like the current coaching staff is preparing the next coaching staff.  Lamar Miller is a proven runner averaging close to 5.0 YPC this year.  Despite his productivity, his carries continue to diminish as the season goes on.  Miller is a free agent at the end of the season and it sure does look like Dan Campbell is getting Ajayi some carries so the Dolphins front office knows just exactly what they have in the rookie.  Ajayi has the ability to get the ball outside and go through the hole.  He has good size (6'0" 220 lb) and decent speed (4.57 40) which is good enough to be a strong NFL runner.  I feel like the jury is out a little bit on the long term ability of Ajayi and that is precisely why the Dolphins front office needs an extra look at the young runner.  Ajayi should get the touches needed to easily get to 3x value for our cash game line ups and he simply needs to give us 12 to reach 4x value for our GPP line ups.  Keep in mind, Ajayi is a HM play.  These guys have a lot more risk factored into their pricing.

3.  Dwayne Harris ($3000)
NY Giants 45
Minnesota -4
Odell Beckham was averaging 12.67 targets per game over the last six games.  It will not be as simple as taking those nearly 13 targets and handing them to Randle.  Those targets will spread out among several players.  Harris has proven to be a pretty reliable target for Manning.  Harris also returns both kick offs and punts.  Harris third in the NFL with 329 yards adding a valuable touchdown to his resume.  He also ranks 6th in KO return yardage where he also added a touchdown.  Harris will see an uptick in targets this week with ODB out.  Harris needs a mere nine points to get our 3x value for cash games and 12 to hit 4x.  Harris has a very low floor but his ceiling is very appealing for our GPP line ups.

4.  Zach Ertz ($3100)
Washington 47.5
Philadelphia -4
Ertz saw a season high 13 targets in Week 15 converting those targets into a 8/78/1 stat line.  Ertz has scored his only two touchdowns on the season in two of the last three weeks.  The Eagles are in a dog fight right now and desperately need a win to stay alive in the weak NFC East.  The Redskins are coming in hot this week having won their last two while scoring 59 points in the process.  The Eagles will surely need to score to keep pace with the Redskins.  As the Eagles offense depends less and less on their running game, Sam Bradford has attempts of 38 and 41 over the last two weeks.  If this trend continues, look for Ertz to easily surpass the 3x mark for your cash game line ups and could sneak into 4x territory.  Ertz does have a very low floor but his price is low enough for us to absorb a low score.

Week 16 D/ST Plays
Week 16 TE Plays 


I answer any and all fantasy and DFS questions.

Tweet me @Brian_Eilering
Email me Br_Eilering@yahoo.com

Week 16 D/ST Plays

The Daily Fantasy Minute:  Where your DFS advice is always free!

Before we jump into the D/ST Plays for Week 16, let's first take a quick glance at our cheat sheet.

1.  Low Vegas Point Total
2.  Home Team
3.  Facing A New/Inexperienced QB
4.  Favorite in Vegas

1.  Detroit ($2800)
San Francisco 40.5
Detroit -8.5
This game absolutely JUMPS off the page when selecting a D/ST for Week 16.  It is the lowest total of the day in Veagas.  Coupled with that, the Lions are a huge HOME favorite.  The stars have aligned for us to fire up this $2800 defense with full confidence.  The 49ers struggles on the road are well documented.  In addition, this is an early start handing the 49ers a huge uphill battle before ever touching the field.  The Lions have played pretty well defensively as of late.  Darius Slay is emerging as a top tier DB in the NFL.  He has only allowed 15 yards receiving on throws to his zone over the last three games.  The 49ers are not exactly loaded at talent on either side of the ball.  Their latest full time running back Shaun Draughn is now limited and I have serious reservations on how effective he will be on Sunday.  The Lions D/ST makes all the sense in the world this week.  I would not hesitate to use them in any and all DFS/fantasy formats.

2.  Seattle ($4300)
St. Louis 40.5
Seattle -14
The only reason Seattle is not my #1 selection this week is the $1500 price different between them and Detroit.  Seattle is as hot as any team in the NFL on both sides of the ball.  Their defense has only allowed two TD's in the last three games winning each game by an average of over 25 points in each contest.  The Rams are only projected for 13.25 of the 40.5 total Vegas put on the game.  The Seahawks are heavy favorites, at home, low scoring total, facing a lousy Rams offense.  They have checked off every single box, but you will have to pay up for them.  Seattle might be the heaviest owned D/ST in DFS this week, fading them for the Lions could be a very smart play and eventually win you some money.

3.  Denver ($3400)
Cincinatti 42
Denver -3.5
Despite what the Steelers just did to the Broncos, the Broncos still have the strongest defense in the NFL.  The Panthers are a very close second but I feel like the Broncos have a better overall defense.  DeMarcus Ware looks like he is getting healthier as his snap count has risen in each of the last two weeks.  Couple him with Von Miller who has 10 sacks all to himself, they have a very strong pass rush.  The Bengals are very capable on offense.  The only problem is, they are missing their signal caller.  A.J. McCarron will not be asked to do near as much as they were asking Andy Dalton to do but the Broncos will show him more looks than he is use to seeing.  McCarron is a fine young quarterback but getting your third professional start against this defense could prove too much for an inexperienced QB.  Denver has a more attractive price than Seattle.  They may very well be the second highest owned D/ST in DFS this week.  

Week 16 TE Plays
Week 16 RB Plays
Week 16 QB Plays


I answer any and all fantasy and DFS questions

Tweet me @Brian_Eilering
Email me Br_Eilering@yahoo.com

Week 16 WR Plays

The Daily Fantasy Minute:  Where your DFS advice is always free!

If you followed along last week, it was my theory to save as much money as possible allowing you to pay up for the big time WR's.  The theory paid off in spades.  The way my line ups were constructed, I cashed out seven of the eight contests I entered more than doubling my investment for the week.

This week may have a similar tone to it, let's take a look at the best WR options as we piece our DFS puzzles together.

1.  Antonio Brown ($9300)

Pittsburgh -9.5
Baltimore 48.5
Wow, that is a VERY high price to pay for the WR position.  I'm willing to pay it!  You are witnessing HOF caliber play from one of the best wide outs I have ever seen play the game.  You can very easily make the Jerry Rice comparisons, but that is another story for another day.  Coming into Week 15, Denver had not allowed a single WR to gain more than 36 yards the previous three weeks.  In comes Roethlisberger/Brown and they absolutely torch the Broncos.  Brown racked up 16 catches against a secondary who had only given up 15 TOTAL receptions the previous three weeks combined!  Here are Brown's video game like numbers going back to Week 9 vs Oakland.

Week	Opponent	Receptions	Yards	TD
9	Oakland	17	284	0
10	Cleveland	10	139	2
11	Bye
12	Seattle	6	51	0
13	Indianapolis	8	118	2
14	Cincinatti	7	87	0
15	Denver	16	189	2
Total		64	868	6
Average		10.7	144.7	1

Baltimore is struggling on both sides of the ball.  This game could easily become very one sided as the Steelers opened as nearly double digit favorites.  Brown will have to put up a 27.9 point day to pay off 3x value.  Brown has put up more than 40 points in two of the last three weeks.  Brown is more than capable of giving us a return on our investment.  The Ravens secondary could easily be the last piece of the puzzle we need to fire up Brown in all DFS formats.

2.  Allen Robinson ($7500)

Jacksonville 51.5

New Orleans -3.5

This could very well be my favorite play of the day.  Brandon Browner benefited from covering a gimpy Calvin Johnson on MNF.  The same will not be true this week where Browner will be forced to cover a true elite top tier WR.  Allen Robinson is simply having a remarkable season and Blake Bortles is well aware of his capabilities.  Robinson has nearly doubled the next closest player in Red Zone targets (Robinson 21/Hurns 12) this season and he has made the most of those opportunities.   He has turned those targets into a league leading 13 receiving TD's (tied with two others).  Robinson has serious big play ability and an amazing talent to high point the football.  Robinson will be among the top five WR's chosen in your season long drafts this coming year.  My recommendation...pay the price!  The Saints are a dream match up for Bortles/Hurns/Robinson. This game has the highest total on the board making Robinson a great start for all DFS games.  Later discussed, he will be  a "Tent Pole" in my line up cards this week.

3.  Jeremy Maclin ($6000)

Cleveland 45

Kansas City -12.5

Does anyone remember a time when Chiefs WR's couldn't catch a touchdown?  I vaguely remember something being said about it.  Jeremy Maclin has changed that stat where he now has six receiving TD's on the season.  I love finding value in the $6000 price range.  Jeremy Maclin has averaged 10 targets over his last four games converting those targets into 374 yards and four touchdowns.  The Browns defensive woes continue where they lost their best DB, Joe Haden, to season ending injury prior to Week 15.  The Browns are only projected for 16.25 of the total Vegas has put on this game leaving more than 28 points for the Chiefs to gobble up.  Look For Maclin to be spread around the field as Andy Reid moves his chess piece around attempting to prey open the long play.  Maclin is a very consistent player in terms of fantasy and his high floor makes him a tremendous cash game play.  Alex Smith still refuses to consistently push the ball down the field so the ceiling for Maclin is quite limited.  Maclin does not make a great GPP play this week.

4.  Golden Tate ($5800)

San Francisco 40.5

Detroit -8.5

As we watched Calvin Johnson limp around the field on MNF, there was a beneficiary, Golden Tate.  While Calvin only saw one target in the game, Golden Tate caught all six of his targets putting two of the in the end zone.  Tate has averaged 8.5 targets per game over the last four games and has been able to turn those targets into five TD's in as many games.  The 49ers are awful coming across country, especially for an early start.  They are only projected for 16 points in this contest while the Lions are projected for 24.5.  Matthew Stafford has been very efficient lately.

Matthew Stafford has a 68.2% completion rate & 14:2 TD:INT ratio since #Lions Week 9 bye. DET is 4-2, with both losses by 7 points or less.

— Evan Silva (@evansilva) December 22, 2015

Golden Tate has five of his six touchdowns in this same stretch while we have seen the targets for Calvin Johnson go from 14, 8, 5, 1 over the last four weeks.  It is clear the health of Johnson is limiting his play and Golden Tate is making the most of his opportunity.  Tate has yet to top 100 yards this season limiting his GPP possibilities but his consistency makes him a great cash play for Week 16.

5.  Michael Floyd ($4900)

Green Bay 49
Arizona -4
I will continue to pound the table for Michael Floyd.  He is the best WR the Cardinals have on their roster and Carson Palmer is aware of it.  He is playing extremely well and Palmer trusts his down field big play abilities.  Floyd makes a tremendous catch on this ball.  He has the presence of mind to keep the defender at bay, catch the ball with one hand, all while getting his knee down to complete the reception.  The Cardinals are a wonderful football team with many great pieces but as Larry Fitzgerald nears closer to the end of his HOF career, Michael Floyd is making a serious pitch to be the Cardinals top WR for the foreseeable future.  Floyd is under priced each week and that allows us to find value in the best WR on the most explosive offense.  Vegas is projecting the Cardinals for 26.5 of the total 49.  This game is the 2nd highest total on the board this week and if the Packers can get their offense back on track, the game a a legitimate chance to go over the total.  The Cardinals lost one of their best defensive (Tyrann Mathieu) players to season ending injury this week which should free up some green space for the Packers to roam.  Michael Floyd has led the team in targets (29) over the last three weeks giving him the high floor we are looking for in our cash game line ups.  His big play ability allows us to consider him for GPP line ups as well but the wealth of other pass catching weapons on the Cardinals does limit his potential.

Week 16 QB Plays

I answer any and all fantasy and DFS questions!
Tweet Me @Brian_Eilering
Email me Br_Eilering@yahoo.com