Saturday, January 23, 2016
Wide Receiver - Josh Doctson - TCU
Josh Doctson - WR TCU
6'3" 195 lbs
Doctson is a little thin but will easily add some weight to his frame. Doctson wants the football! He has great timing and continues to high point the ball over defenders. One of his first catches (40 seconds into clip) in this highlight package, you will see a perfect example of his timing. He catches the ball very well in traffic while using his body to shield the defenders. Doctson wins most of the 50/50 balls thrown his way. He creates nice separation in college, not sure if he is physical enough for similar results in NFL. He never quits on the play often finding open spots on the field after the play breaks down. He has nice speed to get behind defenses. His leaping ability makes for a very wide and tall catching radius and a tremendous target for any quarterback. He is very quick in/out of his breaks.
Overview: Doctson has the look and feel of a true #1 WR. He will need to add some weight, but I prefer him over Ole Miss WR Laquan Treadwell and OSU WR Michael Thomas. I would rank him as my top wideout in this class.
Friday, January 22, 2016
Running Back - Alex Collins - Arkansas
Alex Collins - RB Arkansas
5'11" 218 lbs
Alex Collins has great between the tackles abilities. He is powerful through the hole and does not stop on the first contact. His feet are very quick as he is making his cuts. He has many similarities to Isiah Crowell from UGA. Strong inside runner with limited catching ability. Collins could become a touchdown machine given the right opportunity. At the 1:05 mark of the video, you will see his perfect between the tackles running that results in another touchdown. Has the ability to get to edge in college, may not get there in the NFL. Looks like a two down RB at the next level.
Upcoming Rookie Class
Looking ahead to the 2016 NFL season, let's take a look at the top players at each of the skill positions. I will continue adding players to the blog as time allows. Here is a good start as we inch closer to the draft.
Running Backs
Ezekiel Elliot - RB Ohio State University
6'1" 225
Tremendous top end speed. Was able to get to the edge and capitalize. Nice between the tackles but I was unable to see his ability to shake off the first defender. I want to see what he can do after initial contact. Very nice runner with serious NFL talent. He looks best served to join an offense employing the zone blocking scheme.
Derrick Henry - RB Alabama
6'2" 240 lbs
College players seem to bounce off of him. He is one cut and go, runner. Not overly elusive in the open field but a true load to bring down. He does not have elite speed but his size may make up for it. He does have a Brandon Jacobs feel to him. Unfortunately, it is easy to compare him to Eddie Lacy only because of his already large size. If he gets off his diet regimen, his weight could really come off the rails. It takes Henry a bit of time to get his full head of steam going making a stop and go running an impossibility. I am not convinced he has the physical tools to become an elite NFL RB. He may turn into a strong GL or short yardage back. He was limited in the passing role at Alabama.
Devontae Booker - RB Utah
5'10" 208 lbs
Booker is slightly undersized but has similar physical traits as Doug Martin (5'9" 215 lbs) did when he came out of Boise State. He also plays similar to Martin where he isn't afraid to go between the tackles and catches the ball extremely well out of the backfield catching 80 balls for 624 yards in his final two years at Utah. His best game at Utah came where he piled up 222 yards rushing and 2 TD's against California. Booker has some NFL tools and could make a very nice NFL RB given the right opportunity and system.
Kenneth Dixon - RB La Tech
5'10" 213 lbs
Dixon finishes every run the same way he starts them...strong. He has a flash of Chris Ivory to him in the fact that he never gives up until the play is over. Dixon also has a nice set of hands totaling 64 catches, 852 yards, and 13 touchdowns through the air over his final two years at La Tech. Due to the physical nature of his play, he may he may have longevity concerns.
Quarterbacks
Carson Wentz - QB North Dakota State
6'6" 235
Super tall kid with a pretty nice arm. Pretty athletic, I saw a couple runs that were relatively impressive for a kid that size. Ran some read option and also took snaps from the shotgun. He has very nice touch on the ball when needed. Doesn't unnecessarily throw the ball too hard. Wentz also finished second on the team in rushing with 642 yards on the ground. Played WR in HS. Injured throwing wrist late in the season. Could be the first quarterback taken. Has some Ben Roethlisberger traits, much thinner.
Jared Goff - QB California
6'4" 205
He is a little thin but does throw a very nice ball. His delivery seemed quick to me which is a good thing when he starts processing the NFL defenses. He showed nice touch on the ball when necessary but could zing it in as well. He goes through his reads very fast, seemingly too fast at times. He will not be mistaken for Michael Vick. He is just athletic enough to escape the pocket but don't look for many 20+ yard runs. Maybe closer to Russell Wilson type speed.
Paxton Lynch - QB Memphis
6'6" 225
Lynch is a very big athletic quarterback. He ran the spread at Memphis so his numbers could be deceiving. He is very mobile and uses his legs well. It is hard to tell if his talents will translate to the NFL. Many spread quarterbacks have not panned out but Lynch has a different physical skill set than most from this type of system.
Connor Cook - QB Michigan State
6'4" 220
There are tons of similarities between Connor Cook and Kirk Cousins. You will hear it a million times between now and the end of time. They both went to MSU, are mobile, occasionally accurate, will force bad throws, and the same size. Sometimes comparing QB's is too easy. In this case, I think it is right on point.
Wide Receivers
Laquon Treadwell - WR Ole Miss
6'2" 210
I think a lot of people are going to fall in love with this kids size. I just didn't see anything that blew me away. He does not have amazing speed, but that is not required to be an NFL WR. It certainly does help to become an elite NFL WR. His lack of top end speed will hinder him from a route tree point of view. Will not have tons of opportunities down the field. Not tremendous in the open field, but has great hands. Will have a lot of catches, might make a good PPR type WR.
Michael Thomas - WR Ohio State
6'3" 210
Thomas is a big physical kid that wants to catch the football. Lacks elite level speed but makes up for it in his size. Will be a very nice possession receiver and red zone threat. Ideal size and strength for those short yardage looks.
Will Fuller - WR Notre Dame
6'0" 180
Speed, speed, and more speed. Fuller has the ability to take the top off any defense. Very few college DB's had the speed to stay with Fuller. He has some TY Hilton to his game, but Hilton makes more defenders miss in open spaces. I don't see him as a WR1 for any offense but will make a nice complementary piece helping open up the field. He might run a sub 4.4 at the combine. He finds himself behind defenses over and over again.
Running Backs
Ezekiel Elliot - RB Ohio State University
6'1" 225
Tremendous top end speed. Was able to get to the edge and capitalize. Nice between the tackles but I was unable to see his ability to shake off the first defender. I want to see what he can do after initial contact. Very nice runner with serious NFL talent. He looks best served to join an offense employing the zone blocking scheme.
Derrick Henry - RB Alabama
6'2" 240 lbs
College players seem to bounce off of him. He is one cut and go, runner. Not overly elusive in the open field but a true load to bring down. He does not have elite speed but his size may make up for it. He does have a Brandon Jacobs feel to him. Unfortunately, it is easy to compare him to Eddie Lacy only because of his already large size. If he gets off his diet regimen, his weight could really come off the rails. It takes Henry a bit of time to get his full head of steam going making a stop and go running an impossibility. I am not convinced he has the physical tools to become an elite NFL RB. He may turn into a strong GL or short yardage back. He was limited in the passing role at Alabama.
Devontae Booker - RB Utah
5'10" 208 lbs
Booker is slightly undersized but has similar physical traits as Doug Martin (5'9" 215 lbs) did when he came out of Boise State. He also plays similar to Martin where he isn't afraid to go between the tackles and catches the ball extremely well out of the backfield catching 80 balls for 624 yards in his final two years at Utah. His best game at Utah came where he piled up 222 yards rushing and 2 TD's against California. Booker has some NFL tools and could make a very nice NFL RB given the right opportunity and system.
Kenneth Dixon - RB La Tech
5'10" 213 lbs
Dixon finishes every run the same way he starts them...strong. He has a flash of Chris Ivory to him in the fact that he never gives up until the play is over. Dixon also has a nice set of hands totaling 64 catches, 852 yards, and 13 touchdowns through the air over his final two years at La Tech. Due to the physical nature of his play, he may he may have longevity concerns.
Quarterbacks
Carson Wentz - QB North Dakota State
6'6" 235
Super tall kid with a pretty nice arm. Pretty athletic, I saw a couple runs that were relatively impressive for a kid that size. Ran some read option and also took snaps from the shotgun. He has very nice touch on the ball when needed. Doesn't unnecessarily throw the ball too hard. Wentz also finished second on the team in rushing with 642 yards on the ground. Played WR in HS. Injured throwing wrist late in the season. Could be the first quarterback taken. Has some Ben Roethlisberger traits, much thinner.
Jared Goff - QB California
6'4" 205
He is a little thin but does throw a very nice ball. His delivery seemed quick to me which is a good thing when he starts processing the NFL defenses. He showed nice touch on the ball when necessary but could zing it in as well. He goes through his reads very fast, seemingly too fast at times. He will not be mistaken for Michael Vick. He is just athletic enough to escape the pocket but don't look for many 20+ yard runs. Maybe closer to Russell Wilson type speed.
Paxton Lynch - QB Memphis
6'6" 225
Lynch is a very big athletic quarterback. He ran the spread at Memphis so his numbers could be deceiving. He is very mobile and uses his legs well. It is hard to tell if his talents will translate to the NFL. Many spread quarterbacks have not panned out but Lynch has a different physical skill set than most from this type of system.
Connor Cook - QB Michigan State
6'4" 220
There are tons of similarities between Connor Cook and Kirk Cousins. You will hear it a million times between now and the end of time. They both went to MSU, are mobile, occasionally accurate, will force bad throws, and the same size. Sometimes comparing QB's is too easy. In this case, I think it is right on point.
Wide Receivers
Laquon Treadwell - WR Ole Miss
6'2" 210
I think a lot of people are going to fall in love with this kids size. I just didn't see anything that blew me away. He does not have amazing speed, but that is not required to be an NFL WR. It certainly does help to become an elite NFL WR. His lack of top end speed will hinder him from a route tree point of view. Will not have tons of opportunities down the field. Not tremendous in the open field, but has great hands. Will have a lot of catches, might make a good PPR type WR.
Michael Thomas - WR Ohio State
6'3" 210
Thomas is a big physical kid that wants to catch the football. Lacks elite level speed but makes up for it in his size. Will be a very nice possession receiver and red zone threat. Ideal size and strength for those short yardage looks.
Will Fuller - WR Notre Dame
6'0" 180
Speed, speed, and more speed. Fuller has the ability to take the top off any defense. Very few college DB's had the speed to stay with Fuller. He has some TY Hilton to his game, but Hilton makes more defenders miss in open spaces. I don't see him as a WR1 for any offense but will make a nice complementary piece helping open up the field. He might run a sub 4.4 at the combine. He finds himself behind defenses over and over again.
Thursday, January 21, 2016
DFM Moving Forward
There are only four teams left meaning there are very few players to select from for DFS. Your margin for error with so few players is razor thin. If you want to make a lineup or two and try to hit a homerun ball, go for it. Just know, your percentages of winning any real kind of money is very slim.
I have gained a ton of readers over the last few months. I GREATLY appreciate each and every one of you. The only way to keep your loyalty is to keep the quality of my work up. I don't feel like spending time on four teams for DFS produces quality work.
Instead of breaking down the last two rounds of the NFL playoffs, I will spend my time more wisely looking ahead to the 2016 season for fantasy purposes.
I have been widely successful in all aspects of fantasy football over the last ten years. I have played in nearly every format imaginable. I am going to take the next couple weeks digging into theories and players for your upcoming fantasy season. I will be personally starting a dynasty league and while I spend my time researching for the new league I am entering, I will report back to you guys my findings.
Future Articles
1. Rookie Breakdown - Looking ahead to the upcoming NFL draft.
2. Biggest mistakes from 2015 - Most common mistakes we made and how to avoid them in 2016.
3. New HC and OC around the league - Coaching changes will surely affect the FF landscape.
4. Sleepers for 2016 - Some players that made nice contributions and could blow up for 2016.
These are just a few of the topics I will be covering in the coming weeks. I am also in the process of putting together a podcast. I am really looking to grow The Daily Fantasy Minute and I again thank you all for helping me make it possible.
Suggestions are welcome, I wouldn't turn away a sponsor or two either.
Br_Eilering@yahoo.com
Tweet me @Brian_Eilering
I have gained a ton of readers over the last few months. I GREATLY appreciate each and every one of you. The only way to keep your loyalty is to keep the quality of my work up. I don't feel like spending time on four teams for DFS produces quality work.
Instead of breaking down the last two rounds of the NFL playoffs, I will spend my time more wisely looking ahead to the 2016 season for fantasy purposes.
I have been widely successful in all aspects of fantasy football over the last ten years. I have played in nearly every format imaginable. I am going to take the next couple weeks digging into theories and players for your upcoming fantasy season. I will be personally starting a dynasty league and while I spend my time researching for the new league I am entering, I will report back to you guys my findings.
Future Articles
1. Rookie Breakdown - Looking ahead to the upcoming NFL draft.
2. Biggest mistakes from 2015 - Most common mistakes we made and how to avoid them in 2016.
3. New HC and OC around the league - Coaching changes will surely affect the FF landscape.
4. Sleepers for 2016 - Some players that made nice contributions and could blow up for 2016.
These are just a few of the topics I will be covering in the coming weeks. I am also in the process of putting together a podcast. I am really looking to grow The Daily Fantasy Minute and I again thank you all for helping me make it possible.
Suggestions are welcome, I wouldn't turn away a sponsor or two either.
Br_Eilering@yahoo.com
Tweet me @Brian_Eilering
Friday, January 15, 2016
Divisional Round TE Plays
The TE position is turning out very strange. I began this column last night as the news came across the wire that Rob Gronkowski received pain-killing injections in his knee. I had to re-think some things.
There are several ways to piece your DFS puzzle together to include Gronkowski. If you do so, I would pay very close attention to the news cycle. Last week, those who put Marshawn Lynch in their lineups and did not watch the news cycle lost out on valuable points.
I traditionally do not write about Gronkowski because I would never argue with you for using the best TE in football. This week is different due to the lack of options at the position.
1. Rob Gronkowski ($7500)
Gronk is the clear cut favorite in my book, before the injury. Now, his status makes me seriously reconsider using someone else. Gronk is $600 more than Greg Olsen. Gronk is the biggest mismatch for any defense to defend. His size/strength/speed combination make it nearly impossible for opposing teams to counter. If Gronk is healthy, a multiple-TD performance is well within reach. The Chiefs do have one of the best defenses in the NFL, but covering Gronk is a task few have been able to conquer. I have Gronk in one of my lineups, but again I will be paying very close attention to the news cycle. I will update as the weekend progresses.
2. Greg Olsen ($6900)
Olsen and Gronk are really the only two TE's to consider in my book. Olsen had 72 fewer yards than Gronk on the season but did have four fewer touchdowns. The last time these two teams faced, Olsen posted a very strong 7/131/1 stat line. I do believe Cam Newton built some more chemistry with his spotty WR corp over the course of the season. The fact is, they are simply either too young or not overly talented. Olsen has proven to be an extremely reliable target throughout his career. When Newton needs to move the sticks, look for him to rely on his own legs or Olsen when it matters most. Olsen had three 100+ yard games this season and could easily be in for another on in the Divisional Round.
Other Notes:
Heath Miller ($3200): I think Miller makes a decent cash game option, but his upside is extremely limited. It looks more like Roethlisberger will play but we still do not know how effective he will be. I fear a major drop off from the Steelers offense against the best defense in the NFL.
Travis Kelce ($5100): Kelce has the physical tools to rank with the top two TE's this week. The issue is, Jeremy Maclin. I do not believe Maclin will be at full strength. That leaves Kelce as the Chiefs most dangerous option on offense. I would anticipate the Patriots to make Kelce their main focus on defense. Bill Belichick makes a point of eliminating the opposing team's most dangerous weapon. With Maclin less than 100%, Kelce is that guy.
Richard Rodgers ($4000): I can see some upside for Rodgers this weekend. The top two WR's for the Packers will have a tough day. There may be some opportunities for Rodgers and Abbrederis for some work on the underneath routes. Rodgers makes a nice red zone target and could haul in a touchdown or two.
Divisional Round WR Plays
I will answer any and all DFS/fantasy football questions.
Tweet me @Brian_Eilering
Email me Br_Eilering@yahoo.com
There are several ways to piece your DFS puzzle together to include Gronkowski. If you do so, I would pay very close attention to the news cycle. Last week, those who put Marshawn Lynch in their lineups and did not watch the news cycle lost out on valuable points.
I traditionally do not write about Gronkowski because I would never argue with you for using the best TE in football. This week is different due to the lack of options at the position.
1. Rob Gronkowski ($7500)Gronk is the clear cut favorite in my book, before the injury. Now, his status makes me seriously reconsider using someone else. Gronk is $600 more than Greg Olsen. Gronk is the biggest mismatch for any defense to defend. His size/strength/speed combination make it nearly impossible for opposing teams to counter. If Gronk is healthy, a multiple-TD performance is well within reach. The Chiefs do have one of the best defenses in the NFL, but covering Gronk is a task few have been able to conquer. I have Gronk in one of my lineups, but again I will be paying very close attention to the news cycle. I will update as the weekend progresses.
2. Greg Olsen ($6900)
Olsen and Gronk are really the only two TE's to consider in my book. Olsen had 72 fewer yards than Gronk on the season but did have four fewer touchdowns. The last time these two teams faced, Olsen posted a very strong 7/131/1 stat line. I do believe Cam Newton built some more chemistry with his spotty WR corp over the course of the season. The fact is, they are simply either too young or not overly talented. Olsen has proven to be an extremely reliable target throughout his career. When Newton needs to move the sticks, look for him to rely on his own legs or Olsen when it matters most. Olsen had three 100+ yard games this season and could easily be in for another on in the Divisional Round.
Other Notes:
Heath Miller ($3200): I think Miller makes a decent cash game option, but his upside is extremely limited. It looks more like Roethlisberger will play but we still do not know how effective he will be. I fear a major drop off from the Steelers offense against the best defense in the NFL.
Travis Kelce ($5100): Kelce has the physical tools to rank with the top two TE's this week. The issue is, Jeremy Maclin. I do not believe Maclin will be at full strength. That leaves Kelce as the Chiefs most dangerous option on offense. I would anticipate the Patriots to make Kelce their main focus on defense. Bill Belichick makes a point of eliminating the opposing team's most dangerous weapon. With Maclin less than 100%, Kelce is that guy.
Richard Rodgers ($4000): I can see some upside for Rodgers this weekend. The top two WR's for the Packers will have a tough day. There may be some opportunities for Rodgers and Abbrederis for some work on the underneath routes. Rodgers makes a nice red zone target and could haul in a touchdown or two.
Divisional Round WR Plays
I will answer any and all DFS/fantasy football questions.
Tweet me @Brian_Eilering
Email me Br_Eilering@yahoo.com
Thursday, January 14, 2016
Divisional Round RB Plays
Last week, there was not a high priced running back I remotely considered for DFS in the Wild Card Rounds. Here we are in the Divisional Round and my tune has drastically changed.
1. David Johnson ($6000)
Green Bay 50
Arizona -7
Believe it or not, David Johnson is the best healthy running back left in the playoffs. I firmly believe he should also be the most expensive, but DraftKings threw us a bone making him the 3rd most expensive at the position. He may be the highest owned player in all of DFS this week. Depending on where the Steelers/Broncos line falls, the Cardinals are the heaviest favorite and rightfully so. David Johnson has all of the tools a head coach is looking for in a premier bell cow RB. He has size (6'1" 224 lbs), speed (4.5 40), and GREAT hands. He is capable of playing all three downs. Johnson has enough power to be used in goal line situations as well as enough burst to get to the edge. Johnson will close in on 25-30 touches through both rushing and receiving. If the Cardinals do in fact get up in the game, Johnson will be used heavily in clock-killing mode late in the game. David Johnson will have a full workload this week. When he receives a full workload (20+ touches), Johnson has averaged 157.3 yards from scrimmage. In those same three games, Johnson also added four combined touchdowns.
It quickly gets more interesting as we move down the list of possible running backs for the Divisional Round.
2. Jonathan Stewart ($5800)
Seattle 44
Carolina -2
The Panthers made a point of getting Stewart healthy for the playoffs. He is now practicing for the first time since Week 14 and does not appear to be limited. Stewart is limited due to the Red Zone rushing attempts of Cam Newton. Stewart did not have a single touchdown until Week 6 of the regular season. Since that point, Stewart has combined for seven touchdowns. Keeping in mind, he did not play Weeks 15-17, all of his touchdown production came through Weeks 6-14. Similar to David Johnson, Stewart is in line for a full day of work this weekend. The Seahawks have been very stout against the run. They held Adrian Peterson to just 45 yards on 23 carries in the Wild Card weekend. The different here is, Cam Newton. Newton adds another layer to the entire offense with his ability to make plays with his legs. The last time these two teams faced off, Stewart ran the ball 20 times for 78 yards while adding two scores on the ground. Projecting another two touchdown performance is hard to do but projecting 20-25 total touches is well within the range of possibilities.
The top two backs are by far the safest two of the week. I was able to work a line-up with both Johnson and Stewart in. The remaining backs have major hurdles due to split playing time, injury concerns, or simply bad match ups.
1. Spencer Ware ($4500): Ware doubled the number of rush attempts compared to Charcandrick West in the Wild Card game. He is priced $1K cheaper than West making him an attractive option. Ware will undoubtedly share some carries with West but we don't know to what extent. The Patriots have not allowed a rushing touchdown since Week 12 where C.J. Anderson popped two in. This is a tough spot for the Chiefs rushing attack but Ware has a price tag to help us consider him in our DFS line-ups this week.
2. Christine Michael ($4600): This play is obviously fully dependent on the health of Marshawn Lynch ($6400). Just like last week, I am not willing to pay the price of admission to see how effective Lynch is this week. Lynch is a strange dude. He could easily play a couple downs and decide it just isn't in the cards today. Michael, on the other hand, has a much cheaper price tag and will certainly go 100% given the opportunity. Lynch was a full-go all week last week right up until he chose not to board the team plane on Friday. I'm not willing to saddle up with him, but if Lynch is another late scratch, I would go all in on Michael once again.
3. Fitzgerald Toussaint ($4200): I told you last week we were simply mining for gold where plenty of gold had been in the past. It worked out well. This week is vastly different for many reasons.
1. Uncertainty of Ben Roethlisberger
2. Uncertainty of Antonio Brown
3. Denver Defense
I do not think we will know how effective Roethlisberger will be until they strap their cleats on and play. Toussaint only cost $4200 but with all of the unknowns in Pittsburgh, this long shot bet just got a lot longer. The Steelers offense may struggle in a bad way this weekend.
4. James White ($5100): I do believe White will be the most productive running back for the Patriots this weekend. The problem is, I don't know if he is worth the $5100 it cost to find out. James White is overpriced by about $1K this week. He should get 5-10 targets out of the backfield but his rushing attempts will once again be limited. For $700 more, I much prefer Jonathan Stewart.
Divisional Round WR DFS Plays
I will answer any and all DFS/fantasy footbal questions
Tweet me @Brian_Eilering
Email me Br_Eilering@yahoo.com
1. David Johnson ($6000)
Green Bay 50
Arizona -7
Believe it or not, David Johnson is the best healthy running back left in the playoffs. I firmly believe he should also be the most expensive, but DraftKings threw us a bone making him the 3rd most expensive at the position. He may be the highest owned player in all of DFS this week. Depending on where the Steelers/Broncos line falls, the Cardinals are the heaviest favorite and rightfully so. David Johnson has all of the tools a head coach is looking for in a premier bell cow RB. He has size (6'1" 224 lbs), speed (4.5 40), and GREAT hands. He is capable of playing all three downs. Johnson has enough power to be used in goal line situations as well as enough burst to get to the edge. Johnson will close in on 25-30 touches through both rushing and receiving. If the Cardinals do in fact get up in the game, Johnson will be used heavily in clock-killing mode late in the game. David Johnson will have a full workload this week. When he receives a full workload (20+ touches), Johnson has averaged 157.3 yards from scrimmage. In those same three games, Johnson also added four combined touchdowns.
It quickly gets more interesting as we move down the list of possible running backs for the Divisional Round.
2. Jonathan Stewart ($5800)
Seattle 44
Carolina -2
The Panthers made a point of getting Stewart healthy for the playoffs. He is now practicing for the first time since Week 14 and does not appear to be limited. Stewart is limited due to the Red Zone rushing attempts of Cam Newton. Stewart did not have a single touchdown until Week 6 of the regular season. Since that point, Stewart has combined for seven touchdowns. Keeping in mind, he did not play Weeks 15-17, all of his touchdown production came through Weeks 6-14. Similar to David Johnson, Stewart is in line for a full day of work this weekend. The Seahawks have been very stout against the run. They held Adrian Peterson to just 45 yards on 23 carries in the Wild Card weekend. The different here is, Cam Newton. Newton adds another layer to the entire offense with his ability to make plays with his legs. The last time these two teams faced off, Stewart ran the ball 20 times for 78 yards while adding two scores on the ground. Projecting another two touchdown performance is hard to do but projecting 20-25 total touches is well within the range of possibilities.
The top two backs are by far the safest two of the week. I was able to work a line-up with both Johnson and Stewart in. The remaining backs have major hurdles due to split playing time, injury concerns, or simply bad match ups.
1. Spencer Ware ($4500): Ware doubled the number of rush attempts compared to Charcandrick West in the Wild Card game. He is priced $1K cheaper than West making him an attractive option. Ware will undoubtedly share some carries with West but we don't know to what extent. The Patriots have not allowed a rushing touchdown since Week 12 where C.J. Anderson popped two in. This is a tough spot for the Chiefs rushing attack but Ware has a price tag to help us consider him in our DFS line-ups this week.
2. Christine Michael ($4600): This play is obviously fully dependent on the health of Marshawn Lynch ($6400). Just like last week, I am not willing to pay the price of admission to see how effective Lynch is this week. Lynch is a strange dude. He could easily play a couple downs and decide it just isn't in the cards today. Michael, on the other hand, has a much cheaper price tag and will certainly go 100% given the opportunity. Lynch was a full-go all week last week right up until he chose not to board the team plane on Friday. I'm not willing to saddle up with him, but if Lynch is another late scratch, I would go all in on Michael once again.
3. Fitzgerald Toussaint ($4200): I told you last week we were simply mining for gold where plenty of gold had been in the past. It worked out well. This week is vastly different for many reasons.
1. Uncertainty of Ben Roethlisberger
2. Uncertainty of Antonio Brown
3. Denver Defense
I do not think we will know how effective Roethlisberger will be until they strap their cleats on and play. Toussaint only cost $4200 but with all of the unknowns in Pittsburgh, this long shot bet just got a lot longer. The Steelers offense may struggle in a bad way this weekend.
4. James White ($5100): I do believe White will be the most productive running back for the Patriots this weekend. The problem is, I don't know if he is worth the $5100 it cost to find out. James White is overpriced by about $1K this week. He should get 5-10 targets out of the backfield but his rushing attempts will once again be limited. For $700 more, I much prefer Jonathan Stewart.
Divisional Round WR DFS Plays
I will answer any and all DFS/fantasy footbal questions
Tweet me @Brian_Eilering
Email me Br_Eilering@yahoo.com
Divisional Round WR Plays
The injury to Antonio Brown will make us pause for a moment. He is once again the highest priced WR, but he now has the most uncertainty. The "good" news is with this being a concussion if he does get cleared to play he will be 100%. If it were a leg issue, you would not know the severity of the injury until the game started.
This is a strange week for the WR position. There is a massive gap between Brown ($9800) and the next highest WR, Edelman ($7100).
If I were ranking my WR's this week, without taking price into consideration, I would have Michael Floyd as my top wideout. The interesting thing is, he is the 12th most expensive WR this week at $5100. Floyd is not quite the household name like Antonio Brown so I do not believe his ownership will be too high.
1. Michael Floyd ($5100)
Green Bay 50
Arizona -7
For those of you that have read my column, my love affair with Floyd goes back to the beginning of the season (well, really his rookie campaign). Floyd looks and acts the part of a true #1 WR and I believe that is his future role with this franchise. He is due a lot of money this year and I believe the Cardinals would be making a mistake by letting him walk. Floyd piled up 100-yard games for the Cardinals this year having five in the last eight games of the season. I would not consider two of those weeks, one he was hurt, the other was Week 17. As Larry Fitzgerald puts the finishing touches on his HOF career, Floyd continues to make his pitch as Carson Palmer's new favorite target. Sam Shields once again looks like he will be a no-go this weekend. With Shields out, the Packers will be forced to roll coverage advancing the chances for Floyd to have a big game. Michael Floyd will be a tent pole of mine for the Divisional Round games in DFS.
2. Demaryius Thomas ($7000)
Pittsburgh -
Denver -
Demaryius Thomas has some of the most remarkable raw skills I have ever seen at the WR position. When his head is on straight and he is focussed, Thomas is the prototypical #1 WR that will light up the scoreboard for 165/2. He will then follow up those moments up with games like Week 12 vs the Patriots where he was only able to haul one of 13 targets in. There is a good chance Thomas is matched up with Antwon Blake, PFF's 115th (out of 119) ranked DB. If that is the case, Manning will take advantage of this match up the best he can. The problem is, the best Manning has to offer right now falls somewhere between Landry Jones and Brian Hoyer. His mental capacity is performing just fine, his arm strength simply does not match up with what his mind/eyes sees. It would be a nice story for Manning to have a couple nice playoff games mentally erasing his Week 10 disastrous performance which ultimately got him benched for Brock Osweiler.
3. Julian Edelman ($7100)
Kansas City 42.5
New England -5
Reports coming in indicate Edelman is running at full speed during practice. He reportedly will be wearing a protective shoe (steel plated) but it is not believed to slow him down. He has not played since Week 10 but did lead the team in targets before the injury set him back. Brady has had a hard time finding a dependable target outside of Gronkowski since Edelman got injured. Assuming Brady/Edelman were able to rekindle their connection over the extra long break the Patriots earned, Edelman could easily be in for a double-digit target/reception day. The weather looks like it could be tricky this weekend in Foxboro with wind and rain, but I would count on Brady to lean on his experience in these situations here. I am not convinced Brady has a monster day. I do like Edelman in this match up. The entire Chiefs secondary is quite strong, they may decide to double up Gronkowski leaving their corners in man. In that event, Edelman is certainly quick enough to find the holes in the defense he has made his living doing.
4. Doug Baldwin ($6800)
Seattle 43.5
Carolina -2.5
Essentially, all of the best defenses in the NFL made the playoffs. You have to pick your poison in terms of match ups. The Seahawks move Doug Baldwin all over the field. Conversely, the Panthers typically line their top DB, Josh Norman, on a side. Both Odell Beckham and Julio Jones had nice success against the Panthers and both were moved all over the field in those games. Both players were used extensively in the slot as their offenses looked to create space for their top playmakers. Doug Baldwin is used similarly. I expect Baldwin to once again be moved attempting to not allow Josh Norman to shadow him. If the Seahawks are successful in this chess match, look for Baldwin to benefit from the coverage. Baldwin has caught 12 of his 14 touchdowns over the last eight weeks. There is clearly a trust factor between him and Russell and I fully anticipate this trend to continue as we head into the Divisional Round.
Now that I have put the top 4 plays out for consumption, let's take a look at some less expensive options that will help fill out our rosters.
1. Chris Conley ($3000)/Albert Wilson ($3800): As of 8:15 Thursday morning, the status of Jeremy Maclin is unknown. It was first thought he tore his ACL. After further examination, it was later determined to be a more optimistic high ankle sprain. High ankle sprains are also a very scary injury. These injuries will usually sideline a player for several weeks during a regular NFL season. In the event Maclin does not play, I fully expect the Patriots to do whatever they have to do to take Travis Kelce out of the game. If that is the case, Conley may have opportunities to make an impact in the playoffs his rookie season. Jeremy Maclin missed Week 7 of the regular season due to a concussion. In that week, Chris Conley and Albert Wilson both saw increased targets. Conley converted seven targets into a 6/63/1 stat line. Conley has the physical tools (6'2"/213 lbs 4.35/40) to make a strong NFL WR. We are looking for a difference maker in our line-ups, I believe either Chris Conley or Albert Wilson could offer a nice addition to our GPP cards.
2. Tyler Lockett ($4400): It will be interesting to see how the Seahawks move all of their chess pieces. Either Lockett or Baldwin will benefit from not having Josh Norman cover them. Baldwin seems like the more likely beneficiary though Lockett has the speed (4.40 40) and open field ability to break one open. Keep in mind, Lockett touches the ball in the offense as well as on special teams.
3. Jared Abbrederis ($3000): It looks like Davante Adams suffered a sprained MCL in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs. That will likely move Randall Cobb to the outside leaving Abbrederis to the slot. The Cardinals DB's should have little problems covering the Packers outside WR's in man coverage. That gives Abbrederis opportunities underneath allowing him to possibly pile up some catches.
Divisional Round QB Plays
Follow me on Twitter @Brian_Eilering
Email me Br_Eilering@yahoo.com
This is a strange week for the WR position. There is a massive gap between Brown ($9800) and the next highest WR, Edelman ($7100).
If I were ranking my WR's this week, without taking price into consideration, I would have Michael Floyd as my top wideout. The interesting thing is, he is the 12th most expensive WR this week at $5100. Floyd is not quite the household name like Antonio Brown so I do not believe his ownership will be too high.
1. Michael Floyd ($5100)Green Bay 50
Arizona -7
For those of you that have read my column, my love affair with Floyd goes back to the beginning of the season (well, really his rookie campaign). Floyd looks and acts the part of a true #1 WR and I believe that is his future role with this franchise. He is due a lot of money this year and I believe the Cardinals would be making a mistake by letting him walk. Floyd piled up 100-yard games for the Cardinals this year having five in the last eight games of the season. I would not consider two of those weeks, one he was hurt, the other was Week 17. As Larry Fitzgerald puts the finishing touches on his HOF career, Floyd continues to make his pitch as Carson Palmer's new favorite target. Sam Shields once again looks like he will be a no-go this weekend. With Shields out, the Packers will be forced to roll coverage advancing the chances for Floyd to have a big game. Michael Floyd will be a tent pole of mine for the Divisional Round games in DFS.
2. Demaryius Thomas ($7000)Pittsburgh -
Denver -
Demaryius Thomas has some of the most remarkable raw skills I have ever seen at the WR position. When his head is on straight and he is focussed, Thomas is the prototypical #1 WR that will light up the scoreboard for 165/2. He will then follow up those moments up with games like Week 12 vs the Patriots where he was only able to haul one of 13 targets in. There is a good chance Thomas is matched up with Antwon Blake, PFF's 115th (out of 119) ranked DB. If that is the case, Manning will take advantage of this match up the best he can. The problem is, the best Manning has to offer right now falls somewhere between Landry Jones and Brian Hoyer. His mental capacity is performing just fine, his arm strength simply does not match up with what his mind/eyes sees. It would be a nice story for Manning to have a couple nice playoff games mentally erasing his Week 10 disastrous performance which ultimately got him benched for Brock Osweiler.
3. Julian Edelman ($7100)Kansas City 42.5
New England -5
Reports coming in indicate Edelman is running at full speed during practice. He reportedly will be wearing a protective shoe (steel plated) but it is not believed to slow him down. He has not played since Week 10 but did lead the team in targets before the injury set him back. Brady has had a hard time finding a dependable target outside of Gronkowski since Edelman got injured. Assuming Brady/Edelman were able to rekindle their connection over the extra long break the Patriots earned, Edelman could easily be in for a double-digit target/reception day. The weather looks like it could be tricky this weekend in Foxboro with wind and rain, but I would count on Brady to lean on his experience in these situations here. I am not convinced Brady has a monster day. I do like Edelman in this match up. The entire Chiefs secondary is quite strong, they may decide to double up Gronkowski leaving their corners in man. In that event, Edelman is certainly quick enough to find the holes in the defense he has made his living doing.
4. Doug Baldwin ($6800)Seattle 43.5
Carolina -2.5
Essentially, all of the best defenses in the NFL made the playoffs. You have to pick your poison in terms of match ups. The Seahawks move Doug Baldwin all over the field. Conversely, the Panthers typically line their top DB, Josh Norman, on a side. Both Odell Beckham and Julio Jones had nice success against the Panthers and both were moved all over the field in those games. Both players were used extensively in the slot as their offenses looked to create space for their top playmakers. Doug Baldwin is used similarly. I expect Baldwin to once again be moved attempting to not allow Josh Norman to shadow him. If the Seahawks are successful in this chess match, look for Baldwin to benefit from the coverage. Baldwin has caught 12 of his 14 touchdowns over the last eight weeks. There is clearly a trust factor between him and Russell and I fully anticipate this trend to continue as we head into the Divisional Round.
Now that I have put the top 4 plays out for consumption, let's take a look at some less expensive options that will help fill out our rosters.
1. Chris Conley ($3000)/Albert Wilson ($3800): As of 8:15 Thursday morning, the status of Jeremy Maclin is unknown. It was first thought he tore his ACL. After further examination, it was later determined to be a more optimistic high ankle sprain. High ankle sprains are also a very scary injury. These injuries will usually sideline a player for several weeks during a regular NFL season. In the event Maclin does not play, I fully expect the Patriots to do whatever they have to do to take Travis Kelce out of the game. If that is the case, Conley may have opportunities to make an impact in the playoffs his rookie season. Jeremy Maclin missed Week 7 of the regular season due to a concussion. In that week, Chris Conley and Albert Wilson both saw increased targets. Conley converted seven targets into a 6/63/1 stat line. Conley has the physical tools (6'2"/213 lbs 4.35/40) to make a strong NFL WR. We are looking for a difference maker in our line-ups, I believe either Chris Conley or Albert Wilson could offer a nice addition to our GPP cards.
2. Tyler Lockett ($4400): It will be interesting to see how the Seahawks move all of their chess pieces. Either Lockett or Baldwin will benefit from not having Josh Norman cover them. Baldwin seems like the more likely beneficiary though Lockett has the speed (4.40 40) and open field ability to break one open. Keep in mind, Lockett touches the ball in the offense as well as on special teams.
3. Jared Abbrederis ($3000): It looks like Davante Adams suffered a sprained MCL in the Wild Card Round of the playoffs. That will likely move Randall Cobb to the outside leaving Abbrederis to the slot. The Cardinals DB's should have little problems covering the Packers outside WR's in man coverage. That gives Abbrederis opportunities underneath allowing him to possibly pile up some catches.
Divisional Round QB Plays
Follow me on Twitter @Brian_Eilering
Email me Br_Eilering@yahoo.com
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