I have been asked many questions by my readers. The most common, what is my line up this week? My answer is, are you playing cash or GPP? I then give the reader my line up based on the answer they give me.
I traditionally follow the response with the following: You should be playing in more cash game contests than GPP contests. The reason being, you have an edge in cash game contests due to the volume of both contestants and player possibilities.
Well, as the NFL enters the playoffs, one of the statistical edges has been wiped from the board. Our DFS theories will have to adjust accordingly.
As I set my regular season DFS line up, I bank on the fact a large majority of the casual DFS contestants will blindly select big name players regardless of their match-ups. The playoffs are much different. With much fewer players to choose from, we also have much fewer match-ups to exploit. That also means much fewer mistakes can be made from the casual DFS player.
What does all of this really mean?
I profess all season long to play 80%-90% of you weekly money in cash games leaving the balance for GPP. The hope is to capitalize on the casual DFS contestant strengthing our bankroll as the season progresses by playing mostly cash games.
Our edge has been considerably reduced in the cash games. These playoff weeks should not be played the same way.
1. I strongly suggest playing fewer contests overall.
2. I would play more GPP contests.
3. Play to have fun, not to grow your bankroll.
4. Play for the HR ball. Everyone will be on Antonio Brown, you will have to hit a HR with another player. Statistically, hitting a HR with a player like Jamison Crowder is far less likely than hitting a double with Antonio Brown. The odds are stacked against you.
I am not suggesting to not use Antonio Brown. I am using him myself. But, so is everyone else. By everyone else following suit, our edge is gone. I will play in a couple 50/50 and double contests, but far less than I typically would any given week of the regular season.
If you have any questions, please don't hesitate to ask.
Email Br_Eilering
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