Week 15 Passing/QB Plays

The Daily Fantasy Minute:  Where DFS advice is always free!

Wow, what a week 14 was in the NFL.  My cash line ups all paid out and the couple GPP line ups I played didn't fair so well.  That is to be expected.  You should invest much more heavy in cash contests for that exact reason.

Let's get started looking at the Week 15 passing and quarterback match ups we can take advantage of as we near the end of the NFL regular season.

I always start by taking a quick glance at the five worst performing defenses before even looking at players and prices.

Worst Five Passing Defenses (Yardage)

RK	TEAM	ATT	COMP	PCT	YDS	YDS/A	TD	INT	YDS/G
28	Oakland	528	336	63.6	3529	7	21	11	271
29	Indianapolis	492	296	60.2	3591	7.6	27	14	276
30	New Orleans	448	299	66.7	3624	8.5	36	6	279
31	Pittsburgh	494	329	66.6	3627	7.8	25	14	279
32	NY Giants	530	353	66.6	4009	7.7	23	14	308

Worst Five Passing Defenses (Touchdowns)

RK	TEAM	ATT	COMP	PCT	YDS	YDS/A	TD	INT	YDS/G
27	Indianapolis	492	296	60.2	3591	7.6	27	14	276
	Baltimore	459	288	62.7	3228	7.4	27	4	248
29	Tennessee	403	259	64.3	3023	8.1	28	10	233
	Miami	452	294	65	3404	8	28	11	262
31	Philadelphia	511	319	62.4	3365	7	29	15	259
32	New Orleans	448	299	66.7	3624	8.5	36	6	279

What I notice first is the overlap of two teams.  Both Indianapolis and New Orleans show up on both charts.  While this is not anything new to us, it should be heavily considered as we piece our DFS puzzles together.  

1.  Russell Wilson ($7000)

Cleveland 43

@ Seattle -14

Russell Wilson is on an absolute tear right now.  He is playing remarkably well and the Seahawks have now lost their bell cow RB Thomas Rawls to a season ending injury.  Rawls was a perfect fit to this offense so I anticipate some change in the way the offense is run.  Seattle did sign Bryce Brown (will be mentioned in a later piece) to help their running game.  With that said, look for the Seahawks to continue putting the game more into the hands of Wilson.  Wilson has thrown 16 TD's over his last four games and has also run one in.  In that same span, Wilson has not thrown a single INT.  He continues to put his team in winning scenarios and his play makers reward him.  Vegas has the Seahawks projected for 28.5 of the 43 total points in this contest.  I think they are off, there is a solid chance the Browns don't score.  This game has all the makings of a blow out and Seattle has proven over the last couple games they will continue to throw the ball even when the game is out of reach.  Fire up Wilson in all DFS contests.

2.  Cam Newton ($7800)

Carolina -5

@ NYG 48.5

I don't always recommend selecting one of the highest priced QB's because it cripples you at other positions.  There are exceptions to every rule.  Let's take a look at what the Giants have given up over the last six weeks.

	Week	Comp	Att	PassYd	PassTD	Int	Rsh	RshYD	RshTD
Ryan Tannehill	14	25	41	236	1	0	4	24	0
Ryan Fitzpatrick	13	36	50	390	2	0	5	22	0
Kirk Cousins	12	20	29	302	1	0	4	1	1
Tom Brady	10	26	42	334	2	1	2	9	0
Jameis Winston	9	19	36	249	0	0	3	24	1
Drew Brees	8	39	50	505	7	2	1	1	0

There are only two other games with higher totals in Week 15 than this one.  The Giants tend to play a bend/don't break defense.  As you can see, back in Week 8, Drew Brees broke their defense.  Cam Newton just dismantled the Atlanta Falcons (my favorite team) in a way I didn't think was possible.  His WR's are very pedestrian yet Newton is playing at an MVP level.  The Panthers defense is superb which in turn puts their offense in great field position.  Newton has only thrown one INT in his last five games allowing his team to capitalize on every opportunity.  Newton is tied for 6th in the NFL with seven rushing TD's while The Giants have given up two rushing TD's in the last four weeks to QB's and that trend will likely continue this week.  Newton is pricey but will likely give you a positive ROI.

3.  Carson Palmer ($7000)
Arizona -3.5
@ Philadelphia 50.5
This game has the highest point total on the board in Vegas.  The Eagles pass defense has been pretty horrible as of late.  They have given up 14 passing TD's over the last four games while Carson
Palmer continues to make his plea for MVP nominations.  Palmer has averaged 38.33 attempts over his last three games and over his last four games has thrown for 1,254 yards and eight TD's.  All of the Cardinal WR's are playing at a very high level giving Palmer a wealth of options every time he steps back.  You could easily make the argument the Cardinals have the best four WR's in the NFL and Palmer is utlilizing each and every one of them.  In addition, David Johnson is now their full time RB and has a terrific set of hands making him an additional option for Palmer to throw to.  Carson Palmer may have the highest floor of this bunch of QB's making him a very appealing cash game option.  His ceiling is also quite high allowing us to use him in our GPP line ups as well.

4.  Matthew Stafford ($6000)
Detroit 50
New Orleans -2.5
The Saints are essentially the worst statistical defense in football.  I'm done with that part.  Stafford is averaging 38.5 passing attempts over his last four games.  While the results have not been quite as strong as we would like, he hasn't faced a defense quite this bad.  The last time he faced a poor defense was back in Week 12 when he torched the Eagles for 337/5/0.  Stafford has limited his mistakes only throwing one INT in his last four games.  This game has the second highest point total and that is large part because the Saints are so pathetic on defense (dangit, I brought it up again).  Stafford has a legitimately solid NFL arm and one of the best WR's in the league (Calvin Johnson).  Golden Tate has also been playing very well lately averaging 8 catches over his last four games forcing teams to pay him more attention.  Stafford has a very low floor so I would not recommend him in cash games as much as I would for GPP contests.

5.  Alex Smith ($5100) - Value Play
Kansas City -7
Baltimore 43
This is the hardest one to endorse only because Alex Smith refuses to push the ball down the field.  Be careful here, Alex Smith has a VERY low ceiling but at the same time consistently will give his owners a 250 yard day and spinkle in a touchdown or two.  This endorsement comes from the other side of the ball.  The Ravens just recently gave up five passing TD's to the Seahawks in the Week 14 blow out...I predicted right here.  This is not a strong play and really only comes as a VALUE play.  His price tag makes this much more appealing than the player itself.  Spending $2000 less on a QB will allow you to load up at your skill positions.  Alex Smith should easily provide you 3x value and 4x value this week is certainly not out of the range of possibilities.