Let's first break down our bad rushing defenses as we start piecing the DFS puzzle together. My rankings take everything into consideration. Price weighs heavily in my rankings. While I have Miller ranked 2nd here, his price of $5700 plays into the decision. It is likely him and Adrian Peterson ($6900) have very similar days and Peterson edges him in total points but their difference in price makes Miller the stronger play. We are always looking for 3x/4x value from our players, Miller, in this instance, has a higher probability of reaching that value.
Five Worst Rushing Defenses (Yardage)
| RK | TEAM | ATT | YDS | YDS/A | LONG | TD | YDS/G |
| 28 | San Francisco | 366 | 1502 | 4.1 | 71 | 14 | 125.2 |
| 29 | Chicago | 318 | 1535 | 4.8 | 44 | 5 | 127.9 |
| 30 | Miami | 386 | 1617 | 4.2 | 48 | 9 | 134.8 |
| 31 | Cleveland | 359 | 1636 | 4.6 | 54 | 11 | 136.3 |
| 32 | New Orleans | 338 | 1654 | 4.9 | 45 | 9 | 137.8 |
Five Worst Rushing Defenses (Touchdowns)
| RK | TEAM | ATT | YDS | YDS/A | LONG | TD | YDS/G |
| 26 | Cleveland | 359 | 1636 | 4.6 | 54 | 11 | 136.3 |
| Dallas | 315 | 1249 | 4 | 39 | 11 | 104.1 | |
| Jacksonville | 342 | 1236 | 3.6 | 87 | 11 | 103 | |
| 29 | San Diego | 317 | 1495 | 4.7 | 65 | 12 | 124.6 |
| 30 | San Francisco | 366 | 1502 | 4.1 | 71 | 14 | 125.2 |
| 31 | Atlanta | 322 | 1231 | 3.8 | 37 | 15 | 102.6 |
| 32 | Detroit | 334 | 1304 | 3.9 | 75 | 16 | 108.7 |
As I mentioned last week, the Lions early season poor rush defense is still lingering in the stat lines. That's why you can't just look at stats. The Lions are playing exceptionally well on Defense and I will be hi-lighting them later this week when I get to the D/ST plays of the week. I will not be recommending playing Todd Gurley (against Detroit) until the Rams can get some better quarterback play.
1. Doug Martin ($6200)
Tampa Bay vs New Orleans
What do you get when you have a hot running back mixed with the worst rushing defense in the NFL? You have an extremely highly owned RB that could hit 60% in cash games this week. I really liked Martin when he came out of Boise State a few years ago. I bought stock in him everywhere I could. After Martin came crashing back down to earth, I was left holding all those shares of a RB no one would touch. That kind of talent does not just vanish into thin air. In this case, it didn't either. Martin is benefiting from quality quarterback play coupled with seriously physical weapons who have an ability to stretch the field. For the first time since Week 2, Tampa Bay will have a full host of weapons for Winston to work with. That also means there are a full host of players to help stretch an already lousy/thin defense. This game has the highest total in Vegas sitting at 51 and the Buccaneers favored by 4 projecting their team total for 27.5. Hey, I just made it through an entire write up without tossing around lousy Saints defensive stats.
You can fire up Doug Martin in any/all fantasy and DFS line ups for Week 14.
2. Lamar Miller ($5700)
Miami vs NY Giants
Lamar Miller has the kind of tools that wins NFL teams games and us fantasy dorks championships. His amazing speed and good set of hands make him an asset in the passing game. The Dolphins have gone out of their way to prove they want to run the football. Many coaches have lost their jobs because of it. The proof came last week where one week after the most recent coach firing, the Dolphins gave Miller a season high 20 carries (113 yards) and added another reception. The Giants are horrendous defensively against the pass. Expect Miller to receive a high volume of work in both aspects of the offense. Miller won't be highly owned this week and this is a great spot for him to have a benchmark type game. With just a few weeks left in the regular season, Miller is playing for his next contract. I would consider each of his next games a job interview in front of 32 possible employers. Miller does have a low floor, you may be careful putting him in cash game line ups. He makes a great GPP play this week though.
3. DeAngelo Williams ($6000)
Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati
Roethlisberger has this offense clicking on all cylinders and you want any piece of this offense you can get your hands on. Williams is a major piece of the offense with his tremendous ability to break open long runs as well as catch the ball out of the backfield. He is a prototypical RB for PPR leagues and of course DraftKings is just that. Vegas has this game as the second highest total of the week at 49.5 and I believe the game has a strong chance to go over the total. The Steeler secondary is the weak link pushing their offense into uncharted territory. As the Bengals pile up points, watch the Steelers play keep up offensively. I would expect a game closer to 60 than 50.4. Thomas Rawls ($5800)
Seattle vs Baltimore
Sometimes riding the hot hand is the easiest and hardest play to make. Do I bet into a hot hand with fear the streak will come to end or wait for the next streak to start? In this case, you might be waiting until next year for the next hot streak to start. Ever since Rawls became the starter, the Seahawks have been on fire and it won't be stopping against the 4-8 Ravens who just gave up over 100 yards to Lamar Miller. Russell Wilson is playing better now than any other point in the season. The streaking Seahawks are the last team the rest of the NFL wants to face right now. Thomas Rawls is receiving large amounts of volume making him a good play for both cash and GPP line ups. This game has been off the Vegas board all week but once it settles, I believe it will be Seattle -7. Seattle will win this one again in blow out fashion leaving Rawls to milk the clock late in the game.
5. David Johnson ($4300)
Arizona vs Minnesota
It is very rare I recommend any players from the TNF contest but it hard to ignore the workload of David Johnson. Bruce Arians said before the game this past week he anticipated Johnson to receive 25 touches per game, Johnson ended the day with 24. Liar. Arizona will be a favorite in nearly every game moving forward as they are one of the most well rounded teams in the NFL. Johnson is fully entrenched as the lead back for the highest scoring team, getting this volume from a top offensive team for a mere $4300 is an absolute steal. In his first week as the full time back, Johnson rewarded his owners with a 20 point day on DraftKings easily paying of his price nearly 7x. The Vikings have allowed a 100+ yard rusher in each of the last three weeks. Johnson led the Cardinals with 5 red zone looks in Week 13 converting one of those into a receiving TD. Johnson is an amazing value at $4300 and with his high workload, he is a strong recommendation for all fantasy and DFS line ups.
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