Week 2 RB Plays - DFS

Free DFS Advice - All Free Premium Content

I always like to at least have a snapshot of the five (or so) worst rushing or receiving defenses in either category.

RK	TEAM	ATT	YDS	YDS/A	TD	YDS/G
27	Carolina	29	148	5.1	2	148.0
28	Cincinnati	30	152	5.1	0	152.0
29	Kansas City	32	155	4.8	2	155.0
30	Denver	32	157	4.9	1	157.0
31	New Orleans	26	167	6.4	3	167.0

I fully believe this will be the last time the list looks like anything like Week 1.  Carolina and Denver beat each other up on TNF, KC will get Justin Houston back, and Cincinnati is simply not that bad.

Where does that leave us?  Darn New Orleans again.  As mentioned yesterday,  this game should be targeted heavy all week.  Let's take a look at the next 5 teams, and see if it is something we can work with.

22	Indianapolis	24	116	4.8	2	116.0
23	Philadelphia	21	120	5.7	1	120.0
24	Chicago	35	129	3.7	0	129.0
25	Cleveland	34	133	3.9	1	133.0
26	Washington	30	147	4.9	2	147.0

Ahhh, there we go.  This is the fine group of teams you should be looking for and targeting while setting your DFS LU's this week.

Jeremy Langford ($4600)

Philadelphia +3

Chicago 43

The Eagles just gave up 120 yards on the ground to the hapless Cleveland Browns.  Langford received a true RB1 workload not sharing much of his duties with his team mates.  Langford is undoubtedly the focal point of this rushing attack.  I don't think you will find a better price/workload scenario in week 2.  In addition, this extensive workload comes against a less than average Philly D.  The Bears are projected for 23 of the 43 points in this contest.  Langford has nice upside and a high floor, I would consider him in all formats.

TJ Yeldon ($4700)

Jacksonville -3

San Diego 47

Yeldon seemed primed for a monster afternoon vs GB in Week 1.  He was only able to come out of the game averaging 1.9 YPC but had a TD making his day for his investors.  If Chris Ivory (check status here) is out again Week 2,   Yeldon should get a lot of work against a weak SD rush defense.  This is another good looking price/workload scenario however Week 1 production for Yeldon does stick in my head.

Rashad Jennings ($5600)

New Orleans +5

NY Giants 53

Jennings did not have quite the day we had hoped in Week 1 (75/0) but he dominated the carries.  Jennings carried the ball 18 times to Vareen's 6 carries.  Vareen did have three more targets in the passing game.  The Saints gave up a monster 167/3 on the ground to the Raiders in Week 1.  The Giants could be in for another 400-500 yard offensive day.  Jennings makes sense in all DFS formats.

Spencer Ware ($6100)

KC Chiefs +2

Houston 43.5

The price for Ware caught up pretty darn fast.  It does not look like Jamaal Charles will be rushed back into this offense.  Ware gave the Chiefs plenty of reasons allowing the Chiefs to ease Charles back in.  Ware rewarded us all in a tremendous way for 11/71/1 on the ground and 7/129/0 through the air.  This is a much less enticing match up though Jeremy Langford had a formidable game against these Texans in Week 1.  Ware and West split true playing time though Ware out touched West 19-9.  Ware is a sure fire start heading into Week 2 even at his elevated price.  Some will be scared off due to his new price tag coupled with his less than desirable match up.  I'm firing him up once again.

CJ Anderson ($6800)

Indy +6

Denver 45.5

Anderson proved in Week 1 he is the undeniable starter in Denver.  Devontae Booker helped the decision process by fumbling away his first opportunity as a pro.  Anderson sliced through a strong Carolina defense for 20/92/1 on the ground and another 4/47/1 through the air.  The Broncos will remain content with allowing the ground game dictate their outcome while Trevor Siemian continues to grow as an NFL passer.  The Lions used several different RB's against the Colts defense in Week 1.  They all had relative success. Anderson could be in for one of the larger performances in Week 2.  If you are looking to spend some extra cash in Week 2 at RB, look no further than Anderson.

David Johnson ($7600)

Tamp Bay +6.5

Arizona 50.5

Johnson is the most expensive RB on the board this week.  TB gave up over 320 yards to Matt Ryan but held the Falons running game in check.  In years past, you would expect the Cardinals to get out to a hot start and allow Johnson to milk away the clock.  I do not think this is the same Tampa team who often would roll over early in the game.  I would exercise caution with Johnson due to his high price though his versatility in the passing game makes him very attractive in the PPR format Draft Kings offers. 

I answer any and all fantasy/DFS questions

Br_Eilering@yahoo.com

@Brian_Eilering

Week 2 QB Plays - #DFS

Free DFS Advice - All Free Premium Content

As I go through these selections, I typically take all aspects of the game into consideration including match ups, price, and potential roster strategy.  I may not roster every selection here but the case can certainly be made for their usage.

NO Saints +5
NY Giants 53

This match up will be featured all week long.  It is the highest total on the board and should be considered in all formats as you begin constructing your line ups.

Drew Brees ($8200)
I would exercise caution here as Brees is the most expensive QB on the board.  It is very tantalizing for sure but his price is steep! One of my favorite stacks of the week includes a much cheaper QB, Matt Ryan.  Brees will make a tremendous option this week.  He will be very highly owned in DFS, making him the chalk play in what could be 30% of line ups.  I  may pivot to some lesser owned players.

Eli Manning ($7600)
You aren't getting much of a discount here.  The reason being, the Saints defense is so stinking lousy, every QB's price will be bumped up accordingly.  The poor Saints lost their top DB Delvin Breaux for 6 weeks.  He was the lone bright spot in this secondary.  Manning and company should be in for a huge day.  I would not shy away from starting any player on the Giants roster.  It should be that kind of day and Vegas agrees.  53 is a big number, I think it could easily hit 60.

Matt Ryan ($6800)
Atlanta +4.5
Oakland 49.5
The price difference between Brees and Ryan is substantial enough to consider.  Oakland just gave up over 400 yards and 4 TD's to the Saints.  In comes Matt Ryan who had over 320 yards and 2 TD's himself in Week 1.  We were told all off season how much stronger this Raiders defense was going to be, Drew Brees must not have been listening.  Mohammed Sanu finally gives Ryan the second target he so desperately needed.  Sanu caught 5 of the 8 targets thrown his way totaling 59 yards and a score.  While the Falcons defense may still be suspect, I am not afraid of their offense.  I think Ryan is a great bargain this week.

Joe Flacco ($6500)
Baltimore -6.5
Cleveland 43
The Browns just gave up 278/2/0 to a rookie QB on a bad offense.  While I am not convinced the Ravens are exactly a high flying offense, they are certainly more adept than Philly.  I believe Cleveland and LA Rams are going to fight it out for the top pick in next years draft.  Flacco has just enough weapons to put up a formidable 300/2/0 type afternoon handsomely rewarding us for being bargain shoppers.  Flacco may not be the best GPP play as I feel like his upside is limited, but he does make a fantastic cash game player.

There are quite a few good looking QB match ups this week.  In the essence of time, I will simply take note of several that catch my eye.
In order of price:

Josh McCown ($5000): You have to trust that the Cleveland offense will be better with McCown than RG3.  For the basement price DK offers for QB's, it may be a gamble worth taking allowing for more dollars spent at other positions similar to Dak Prescott last week.

Trevor Siemian ($5200): Has very limited upside but facing Indy and their lackluster defense.  They lost their top 2 DB's last week and didn't have any to lose.  Good cash play, not GPP.

Dak Prescott ($5800):  $800 more expensive than last week.  Still a good bargain.  Prescott had 45 attempts in Week 1 vs the NYG secondary.  A lot of dinks and dunks, might turn it loose a little more vs Washington who struggled mightily vs the Steelers.

Marcus Mariota ($6000): Still a good price against a poor Lions defense who just gave up 385/4/0 to Andrew Luck.  Still limited upside, better cash play.

Andy Dalton ($6400):  Really an attractive price against a Steelers defense that had major lapses last year.  Not a ton of upgrades on D, Dalton could easily outperform price.

Carson Palmer ($6900):  Another nice price for a top level QB facing a weak secondary.  Facing TB who just gave up nice day to Matt Ryan.  Positive outlook for Palmer Week 2.

Derek Carr ($7200): Facing a below average Falcon defense with zero pass rush for the 29th straight season.  Winston 281/4/1 last week vs Falcons (no sacks once again).

Cam Newton ($7900): A little too pricey for me but 49ers will rank in bottom 3 of teams this season.  Week 1 vs Rams was a mirage.  Newton could have massive day Week 2.

I appreciate any and all feedback.

Br_Eilering@yahoo.com
@Brian_Eilering

Week 1 #DFS Hail Mary Picks

Free DFS Advice - All Free Premium Content

Hail Mary picks are just as they sound.  The success rate is built in to their price.  There is a higher percentage chance these don't hit but if you go with your "stars & scrubs" approach, finding these picks is essential for success.  These plays are not recommended for your cash games.  There is a fair chance they give you a big fat zero making them a better GPP play than cash.

I have made it clear on other posts that I will be going with a different approach but if you are looking for some very inexpensive WR's/TE's to outperform their price, here are some selections to consider.

Last season, I had a very high success rate of hitting on these bargains.  I will say finding them in Week 1 will be more difficult than mid season.  There is less data both offensively and defensively to utilize.

My Hail Mary picks are typically $3500 or less though I may cheat a little here and there depending on the week.

1.  Tyler Boyd ($3600)
Look at that, right off the bat, I cheated by $100.  The Bengals are short their top flight TE Tyler Eifert.  They also let their other secondary WR's (Marvin Jones/M. Sanu) walk in FA this past season.  This leaves Boyd opposite AJ Green to suck up the targets.  Brandon LaFell isn't scaring anyone with his skills.  He is spotty at best with consistency.  This pick may be a little premature, but for Week 1 and the price, Boyd makes a lot of sense.

2.  Tajae Sharp ($3000)
Sharp is making is case to be the WR1 in Tennessee.  Rishard Matthews may get more early work as Sharp gets accustom to the NFL and this new offense.  Sharp has had a great pre-season and makes a perfect boom/bust selection for DFS Week 1.

3.  Clive Walford ($3000)
The Saints do not appear to have improved greatly on defense.  They should still be a defense we target heavily in 2016 when we construct our DFS selections.  Derek Carr came into his own last season and year three should be another growth year in terms of maturity in this Oakland offense.  Walford received very little attention at the start of 2015.  His targets grew as the season progressed where he peaked in Weeks 14 & 15 with 7 targets each game.  Walford is another young player primed to grow in a developing offense.  If you are looking to save money at the TE, Walford makes a strong selection.

4.  Jared Cook ($2900)
Cook is the prototypical boom/bust player.  He has an amazing skill set which has teased us all over his entire career.  I have fell prey to him in seasons past.  Now, he comes into a GB offense with arguably (not in my eyes) the best QB in the game.  If Jordy Nelson is back to form, defenses (Jacksonville this week) will be forced to roll coverage on him.  This will leave both Randall Cobb and Jared Cook a little more free to roam the middle of the field where they do their best work.  In another cash saving move, Cook may prove as a savvy play in Week 1 DFS.

I appreciate any and all feedback
Br_Eilering@yahoo.com
@Brian_Eilering

Week 1 DFS Strategy - The Zero RB Approach

Free DFS Advice - All Free Premium Content

With the news of Thomas Rawls the official #2 behind Christine Michael for Week 1, I think a new strategy should be in play.

RB1 - Spencer Ware ($4400)
RB2 - Christin Michael ($3600)

This only ties up $8000 of your cap with what will amount to two full time RB1's.  Now, you can get as creative as you would like with the remainder of your roster.  It allows you to go big at the WR position where the Draft Kings PPR comes into play.  I would propose something along these lines.



Taking advantage of pricing inefficiencies is the name of the game in DFS.  Getting two full time RB1 candidates at or near minimum pricing allows a ton of flexibility.  I would be hard pressed to spend any more money on the RB position this week.  I am not trying to say there are not other great opportunities out there at RB but I am not convinced you can find better value.

UPDATE:
I have had several people offer variations of this line up.  Including removing Latavius Murray or possibly changing out Brandin Cooks.

The point of this strategy is to give you the most amount of flexibility as possible.  I may not even use this exact LU myself.  I will use some form of it though.

James White ($3600) is another very logical player to use in this zero RB approach.  Again, the more big time WR's you are able to utilize, the better off you are in Week 1.  They will offer a massive amount of upside while limiting the potential floor of many of the low-mid range WR's you may be forced to use with a different strategy.

br_eilering@yahoo.com
@brian_eilering

What Games To Play? Make Your Money Last Longer!

Free DFS Advice - All Free Premium Content

Once you deposit your hard earned money into your new Draft Kings/Fan Duel account, it has a Vegas feeling to it.  It is Thursday afternoon, the casino's are hopping, and your money is set to last you all weekend.

The only problem is, you didn't budget your money or time correctly, played all the wrong table games, and are now out of money...It's Friday morning.  This makes for a very expensive trip to the ATM.  I would assume not make a trip to the ATM during the season.  I want to hold my cash as long as I possibly can.

Let's try to avoid being out of cash on Friday morning.

1.  Take it easy on the $1M games.  Let's face it folks, those games are there for the same reason a Lamborghini sits in the middle of the casino.  Sure, someone may win it one day, it is just VERY unlikely to be you.  I am not saying avoid these games entirely, just don't dump a ton of money into them.  Walk away from the progressive slot machine after a few pulls.  I may enter one or two per weekend.  Sometimes I won't enter any.

2.  Limit the number of contests you enter.  If you pop $100 into your account, don't spend your full $100 on one pull of that slot machine.  Spread it out.  I will typically only play about 10-20% of my bankroll each week.  If you are OK with dumping more money into the machine, by all means, dump away.  For me, I would much prefer to spread my risk out and try playing all season long.

3.  Play those cash games.  Cash games are where you can really make pretty good money.  What is a cash game?  H2H and 50/50 (also called double ups) type contests.  I prefer to get into the larger 50/50 contests.  I MUCH prefer a 50/50 contest with over 100 people in it.  The more the merrier.  There are tons of sharks out there who will gladly take your money.  If you are in a 10 person 50/50 contest and three of them are sharks, your chances of winning money have been severely reduced.  If you get into a 1000 person 50/50 contest with some sharks included,  your chances haven't been nearly as diluted.  If you check the contestants, you will start noticing the same names.  You can't avoid them entirely, just reduce your risk.

4.  Try a couple line ups.  I will typically have 2-4 different line ups.  This will again help spread your risk out.  You will want a high ceiling line up for those huge GPP (Lamborghini) games.  Players like Will Fuller will fit the mold this season.  He has a super high ceiling but a floor that could be as low as 0.  Fuller is NOT the kind of player you want in your CASH games.  Your cash game players need to be more steady with less variation in their scoring.  I believe Mark Ingram will make a prototypical cash player this season.  He is a shoe in for a lot of work with good upside as well.  He has very limited potential to score a zero unless he gets injured.

You will want to mix and match players you like any given week.  As I write my articles, I will try to indicate just how I will use that player.

This week, I have indicated a player like Spencer Ware will make a good fit for ALL formats.  This means I plan on using him for both cash and GPP contests.

By having multiple different line ups, you limit your exposure.  If one of your main players gets hurt early on a Sunday afternoon...you could be done for early.  If you have multiple line ups, that injury may not ruin your day.

5.  Play less expensive entries.  If you only have $100 in your account, don't go heavy on $10 contests.  Play a bunch of $3 contests and see if you can build up your bankroll as opposed to sucking in dry in three weeks.

6.  WATCH THE INJURY REPORTS!!!!!!!!  I will check rosters throughout a weekend and constantly see rosters with injured players.  Players that have been out for the entire week.  If you enter a contest early in the week, don't forget to double check it before the contest starts!

7.  Last, but certainly not least.  Use TNF (Thursday Night Football) players sparingly.  When the regular season gets going, TNF is usually a low scoring affair.  The temptation to start players in the game is so great for many people, they can't lay off.  I have seen countless rosters FILLED with players from TNF.  When I say filled, I mean filled.  These people have close to a 0% chance of winning money.  They are literally donating money to the cause.  Their donation increases our chances of winning money each and every time they do it.  I will enter as many contests that include TNF players as possible.  At the same token, I will almost NEVER use a player from TNF unless it's a match up I just can't lay off.

I appreciate any and all feedback.  If you have any other tips I may have overlooked, email me or tweet me.

br_eilering@yahoo.com
@brian_eilering