The Daily Fantasy Minute: Where DFS advice is always free!
I have gone through and set a few line ups. Two of them I have in many contests. All of them include players discussed through out the week.
Tent Poles: A tent pole is a player used on all line ups no matter how many line ups are being used.
Ben Roethlisberger - I wanted to use Bortles in a couple. Their price was so close to each other I had to go with the more talented player.
Antonio Brown
Allen Robinson
Karlos Williams
Zach Miller - His price realed me in each time. I wanted to pay up for Brown/Robinson, spending little on Miller helped the cause. He isn't a must own but he did fit into my DFS puzzle each time.
Interchangeable Parts: Depending on how your line ups shake out, these are all pieces to consider at varying price levels.
Danny Woodhead
Jeremy Maclin
Rueben Randle
Cameron Artis-Payne
Michael Floyd
David Johnson - I really like Johnson but I fear his ownership will be high. I faded him a bit on two cards for this purpose.
D/ST
Denver
Detroit
Similar to last week, I will not publish my cards. If you ask me directly, I will again share them with you. I shared them with quite a few people last week. I hope they played them because they won money in all the contests I entered them in. The only reason I don't publish them is because I know some of you like putting the puzzle together.
Tweet me @Brian_Eilering
Email me Br_Eilering@yahoo.com
Thursday, December 24, 2015
Week 16 Hail Mary Plays
The Daily Fantasy Mintute: Where your DFS advice is always free!
For those of you new to my column, I do Hail Mary plays each week. My cutoff for a HM play is $3500. By nature, a HM play has some more risk but thankfully I have been able to minimize your risk where I have hit on well over 50% of my HM plays.
I will cheat from time to time by going over the $3500 threshold. When I do, I keep my cheating to a minimum.
1. Rueben Randle ($3500)
NY Giants 45
Minnesota -4
Boy, I've been watching this story all week. I was hoping like hell Randle would fit into my HM plays...here goes. The Giants will officially be without Odell Beckham this week. The NFL upheld the ruling so we can now plan accordingly. I would never suggest Randle could replace ODB in any capacity but he sure will get his shot. Between Randle and Will Tye, both will see a large increase in targets. Randle is a big WR standing at 6'3" and 210 lbs. He has big game potential in him. Back in Week 7 he hauled in 7/116/1 against the Redskins. Randle has had some issues with drops in the past but he also has the ability to make very nice catches. Remember, at $3500, we don't need Randle to explode for 30 DraftKings points. We really just need him to get us 10.5 points for our cash game plays and 14 points for GPP contests. Anything beyond that is gravy. Randle makes a tremendous cash game and GPP player. I will not hesitate to fire him into every roster I put on DraftKings.
2. Jay Ajayi ($3000)
Indianapolis 44
Miami -1
It looks like the current coaching staff is preparing the next coaching staff. Lamar Miller is a proven runner averaging close to 5.0 YPC this year. Despite his productivity, his carries continue to diminish as the season goes on. Miller is a free agent at the end of the season and it sure does look like Dan Campbell is getting Ajayi some carries so the Dolphins front office knows just exactly what they have in the rookie. Ajayi has the ability to get the ball outside and go through the hole. He has good size (6'0" 220 lb) and decent speed (4.57 40) which is good enough to be a strong NFL runner. I feel like the jury is out a little bit on the long term ability of Ajayi and that is precisely why the Dolphins front office needs an extra look at the young runner. Ajayi should get the touches needed to easily get to 3x value for our cash game line ups and he simply needs to give us 12 to reach 4x value for our GPP line ups. Keep in mind, Ajayi is a HM play. These guys have a lot more risk factored into their pricing.
3. Dwayne Harris ($3000)
NY Giants 45
Minnesota -4
Odell Beckham was averaging 12.67 targets per game over the last six games. It will not be as simple as taking those nearly 13 targets and handing them to Randle. Those targets will spread out among several players. Harris has proven to be a pretty reliable target for Manning. Harris also returns both kick offs and punts. Harris third in the NFL with 329 yards adding a valuable touchdown to his resume. He also ranks 6th in KO return yardage where he also added a touchdown. Harris will see an uptick in targets this week with ODB out. Harris needs a mere nine points to get our 3x value for cash games and 12 to hit 4x. Harris has a very low floor but his ceiling is very appealing for our GPP line ups.
4. Zach Ertz ($3100)
Washington 47.5
Philadelphia -4
Ertz saw a season high 13 targets in Week 15 converting those targets into a 8/78/1 stat line. Ertz has scored his only two touchdowns on the season in two of the last three weeks. The Eagles are in a dog fight right now and desperately need a win to stay alive in the weak NFC East. The Redskins are coming in hot this week having won their last two while scoring 59 points in the process. The Eagles will surely need to score to keep pace with the Redskins. As the Eagles offense depends less and less on their running game, Sam Bradford has attempts of 38 and 41 over the last two weeks. If this trend continues, look for Ertz to easily surpass the 3x mark for your cash game line ups and could sneak into 4x territory. Ertz does have a very low floor but his price is low enough for us to absorb a low score.
Week 16 D/ST Plays
Week 16 TE Plays
I answer any and all fantasy and DFS questions.
Tweet me @Brian_Eilering
Email me Br_Eilering@yahoo.com
For those of you new to my column, I do Hail Mary plays each week. My cutoff for a HM play is $3500. By nature, a HM play has some more risk but thankfully I have been able to minimize your risk where I have hit on well over 50% of my HM plays.
I will cheat from time to time by going over the $3500 threshold. When I do, I keep my cheating to a minimum.
1. Rueben Randle ($3500)
NY Giants 45
Minnesota -4
Boy, I've been watching this story all week. I was hoping like hell Randle would fit into my HM plays...here goes. The Giants will officially be without Odell Beckham this week. The NFL upheld the ruling so we can now plan accordingly. I would never suggest Randle could replace ODB in any capacity but he sure will get his shot. Between Randle and Will Tye, both will see a large increase in targets. Randle is a big WR standing at 6'3" and 210 lbs. He has big game potential in him. Back in Week 7 he hauled in 7/116/1 against the Redskins. Randle has had some issues with drops in the past but he also has the ability to make very nice catches. Remember, at $3500, we don't need Randle to explode for 30 DraftKings points. We really just need him to get us 10.5 points for our cash game plays and 14 points for GPP contests. Anything beyond that is gravy. Randle makes a tremendous cash game and GPP player. I will not hesitate to fire him into every roster I put on DraftKings.
2. Jay Ajayi ($3000)
Indianapolis 44
Miami -1
It looks like the current coaching staff is preparing the next coaching staff. Lamar Miller is a proven runner averaging close to 5.0 YPC this year. Despite his productivity, his carries continue to diminish as the season goes on. Miller is a free agent at the end of the season and it sure does look like Dan Campbell is getting Ajayi some carries so the Dolphins front office knows just exactly what they have in the rookie. Ajayi has the ability to get the ball outside and go through the hole. He has good size (6'0" 220 lb) and decent speed (4.57 40) which is good enough to be a strong NFL runner. I feel like the jury is out a little bit on the long term ability of Ajayi and that is precisely why the Dolphins front office needs an extra look at the young runner. Ajayi should get the touches needed to easily get to 3x value for our cash game line ups and he simply needs to give us 12 to reach 4x value for our GPP line ups. Keep in mind, Ajayi is a HM play. These guys have a lot more risk factored into their pricing.
3. Dwayne Harris ($3000)NY Giants 45
Minnesota -4
Odell Beckham was averaging 12.67 targets per game over the last six games. It will not be as simple as taking those nearly 13 targets and handing them to Randle. Those targets will spread out among several players. Harris has proven to be a pretty reliable target for Manning. Harris also returns both kick offs and punts. Harris third in the NFL with 329 yards adding a valuable touchdown to his resume. He also ranks 6th in KO return yardage where he also added a touchdown. Harris will see an uptick in targets this week with ODB out. Harris needs a mere nine points to get our 3x value for cash games and 12 to hit 4x. Harris has a very low floor but his ceiling is very appealing for our GPP line ups.
4. Zach Ertz ($3100)
Washington 47.5
Philadelphia -4
Ertz saw a season high 13 targets in Week 15 converting those targets into a 8/78/1 stat line. Ertz has scored his only two touchdowns on the season in two of the last three weeks. The Eagles are in a dog fight right now and desperately need a win to stay alive in the weak NFC East. The Redskins are coming in hot this week having won their last two while scoring 59 points in the process. The Eagles will surely need to score to keep pace with the Redskins. As the Eagles offense depends less and less on their running game, Sam Bradford has attempts of 38 and 41 over the last two weeks. If this trend continues, look for Ertz to easily surpass the 3x mark for your cash game line ups and could sneak into 4x territory. Ertz does have a very low floor but his price is low enough for us to absorb a low score.
Week 16 D/ST Plays
Week 16 TE Plays
I answer any and all fantasy and DFS questions.
Tweet me @Brian_Eilering
Email me Br_Eilering@yahoo.com
Wednesday, December 23, 2015
Week 16 TE Plays
The Daily Fantasy Minute: Where DFS advice is always free!
Tight Ends are a weekly conundrum.
Option 1
Pay big money for a consistent player and face the real possibility of him not hitting 3x/4x value due to his high price tag.
Option 2
Spend less money on a value TE. Hitting 3x/4x value is a much easier task with a very good chance of hitting 5x value.
If you have paid any attention at all, you might guess I will go for Option #2 just about every single time. Week 16 is no different.
1. Zach Miller ($4000)
Chicago 44.5
Tampa Bay -2.5
As of 12/23/2015, the status of Alshon Jeffery is unknown. What we do have is evidence. Jeffery has had serious issues with soft tissue injuries this season. We can not rely on the Bears to give us any real information. They are now the Patriots of the Mid-West. With that said, I fully anticipate Jeffery sitting this one out. Whether he plays or not, I am willing to spend the $4000 it costs to have Miller in my line up. Since the injury to Martellus Bennett, Miller has caught five of six targets in Week 14 for 85 yards and a TD. In Week 15, he caught all six targets for 57 yards. Bennett and Jeffery were the leading pass catchers in red zone targets. With both of them out for Week 16, I would expect Cutler to utilize Miller much heavier. Miller is a big body (6'5" 240 lb) TE making a nice target for Cutler to look for when deep in the other teams territory. Miller already has five touchdowns on the season and should improve on that number heading into the last two weeks of the regular season. Tampa Bay has given up 28 passing TD's on the season making Miller a very nice play for both cash games and GPP contests this weekend.
2. Julius Thomas ($5100)
Jacksonville 51.5
New Orleans -3.5
This game is off the board in most Vegas casino's. The reason being, we don't know if Drew Brees will play. Drew Brees really doesn't affect the Saints pathetic defense. He does affect how efficient their offense will be though. The Saints legendary bad defense continues to show up where Matthew Stafford last week threw three first half TD's. Blake Bortles is statistically a good quarterback. His short comings actually benefit his pass catchers. He has a Brett Favre mentality meaning he will throw a ball in any situation whether it is a good idea or not. His lack of fear, or understanding of defenses, plays right into our hands as DFS players. Julius Thomas has scored in four of his last five games including a 116 yard game in Week 12 against the Chargers. Thomas should see a large workload this week making him a strong cash game play. Thomas has a serious shot to have a multiple TD game coupled with his ability to go over 100 yards makes him a great GPP play as well. The Saints have made us a lot of money in DFS this season, no reason to abandon the Saints at this point in the season.
3. Will Tye ($3500)
NY Giants 45
Minnesota -4
There is a little rumor floating around that Odell Beckham may miss a game. I'm not sure just yet, there simply isn't enough coverage on the issue. With ODB out, someone has to benefit on the Giants. Will Tye has been very consistent for Eli Manning catching 19 of his 25 targets over the last four weeks. He has also caught touchdowns in consecutive weeks. Tye is somewhat limited physically as he isn't the tallest or fastest TE in the NFL. He does have a very good set of hands which is why Manning has found trust in him lately. Tye is unlikely to have a massive blow up type game, making him less appealing for our GPP contests. He should have a steady diet of passes though making him a perfect budget TE for our cash line ups.
Week 16 RB Plays
Week 16 QB Plays
Tight Ends are a weekly conundrum.
Option 1
Pay big money for a consistent player and face the real possibility of him not hitting 3x/4x value due to his high price tag.
Option 2
Spend less money on a value TE. Hitting 3x/4x value is a much easier task with a very good chance of hitting 5x value.
If you have paid any attention at all, you might guess I will go for Option #2 just about every single time. Week 16 is no different.
1. Zach Miller ($4000)
Chicago 44.5
Tampa Bay -2.5
As of 12/23/2015, the status of Alshon Jeffery is unknown. What we do have is evidence. Jeffery has had serious issues with soft tissue injuries this season. We can not rely on the Bears to give us any real information. They are now the Patriots of the Mid-West. With that said, I fully anticipate Jeffery sitting this one out. Whether he plays or not, I am willing to spend the $4000 it costs to have Miller in my line up. Since the injury to Martellus Bennett, Miller has caught five of six targets in Week 14 for 85 yards and a TD. In Week 15, he caught all six targets for 57 yards. Bennett and Jeffery were the leading pass catchers in red zone targets. With both of them out for Week 16, I would expect Cutler to utilize Miller much heavier. Miller is a big body (6'5" 240 lb) TE making a nice target for Cutler to look for when deep in the other teams territory. Miller already has five touchdowns on the season and should improve on that number heading into the last two weeks of the regular season. Tampa Bay has given up 28 passing TD's on the season making Miller a very nice play for both cash games and GPP contests this weekend.
2. Julius Thomas ($5100)
Jacksonville 51.5
New Orleans -3.5
This game is off the board in most Vegas casino's. The reason being, we don't know if Drew Brees will play. Drew Brees really doesn't affect the Saints pathetic defense. He does affect how efficient their offense will be though. The Saints legendary bad defense continues to show up where Matthew Stafford last week threw three first half TD's. Blake Bortles is statistically a good quarterback. His short comings actually benefit his pass catchers. He has a Brett Favre mentality meaning he will throw a ball in any situation whether it is a good idea or not. His lack of fear, or understanding of defenses, plays right into our hands as DFS players. Julius Thomas has scored in four of his last five games including a 116 yard game in Week 12 against the Chargers. Thomas should see a large workload this week making him a strong cash game play. Thomas has a serious shot to have a multiple TD game coupled with his ability to go over 100 yards makes him a great GPP play as well. The Saints have made us a lot of money in DFS this season, no reason to abandon the Saints at this point in the season.
3. Will Tye ($3500)
NY Giants 45
Minnesota -4
There is a little rumor floating around that Odell Beckham may miss a game. I'm not sure just yet, there simply isn't enough coverage on the issue. With ODB out, someone has to benefit on the Giants. Will Tye has been very consistent for Eli Manning catching 19 of his 25 targets over the last four weeks. He has also caught touchdowns in consecutive weeks. Tye is somewhat limited physically as he isn't the tallest or fastest TE in the NFL. He does have a very good set of hands which is why Manning has found trust in him lately. Tye is unlikely to have a massive blow up type game, making him less appealing for our GPP contests. He should have a steady diet of passes though making him a perfect budget TE for our cash line ups.
Week 16 RB Plays
Week 16 QB Plays
Week 16 D/ST Plays
The Daily Fantasy Minute: Where your DFS advice is always free!
Before we jump into the D/ST Plays for Week 16, let's first take a quick glance at our cheat sheet.
1. Low Vegas Point Total
2. Home Team
3. Facing A New/Inexperienced QB
4. Favorite in Vegas
1. Detroit ($2800)
San Francisco 40.5
Detroit -8.5
This game absolutely JUMPS off the page when selecting a D/ST for Week 16. It is the lowest total of the day in Veagas. Coupled with that, the Lions are a huge HOME favorite. The stars have aligned for us to fire up this $2800 defense with full confidence. The 49ers struggles on the road are well documented. In addition, this is an early start handing the 49ers a huge uphill battle before ever touching the field. The Lions have played pretty well defensively as of late. Darius Slay is emerging as a top tier DB in the NFL. He has only allowed 15 yards receiving on throws to his zone over the last three games. The 49ers are not exactly loaded at talent on either side of the ball. Their latest full time running back Shaun Draughn is now limited and I have serious reservations on how effective he will be on Sunday. The Lions D/ST makes all the sense in the world this week. I would not hesitate to use them in any and all DFS/fantasy formats.
2. Seattle ($4300)
St. Louis 40.5
Seattle -14
The only reason Seattle is not my #1 selection this week is the $1500 price different between them and Detroit. Seattle is as hot as any team in the NFL on both sides of the ball. Their defense has only allowed two TD's in the last three games winning each game by an average of over 25 points in each contest. The Rams are only projected for 13.25 of the 40.5 total Vegas put on the game. The Seahawks are heavy favorites, at home, low scoring total, facing a lousy Rams offense. They have checked off every single box, but you will have to pay up for them. Seattle might be the heaviest owned D/ST in DFS this week, fading them for the Lions could be a very smart play and eventually win you some money.
3. Denver ($3400)
Cincinatti 42
Denver -3.5
Despite what the Steelers just did to the Broncos, the Broncos still have the strongest defense in the NFL. The Panthers are a very close second but I feel like the Broncos have a better overall defense. DeMarcus Ware looks like he is getting healthier as his snap count has risen in each of the last two weeks. Couple him with Von Miller who has 10 sacks all to himself, they have a very strong pass rush. The Bengals are very capable on offense. The only problem is, they are missing their signal caller. A.J. McCarron will not be asked to do near as much as they were asking Andy Dalton to do but the Broncos will show him more looks than he is use to seeing. McCarron is a fine young quarterback but getting your third professional start against this defense could prove too much for an inexperienced QB. Denver has a more attractive price than Seattle. They may very well be the second highest owned D/ST in DFS this week.
Week 16 TE Plays
Week 16 RB Plays
Week 16 QB Plays
I answer any and all fantasy and DFS questions
Tweet me @Brian_Eilering
Email me Br_Eilering@yahoo.com
Before we jump into the D/ST Plays for Week 16, let's first take a quick glance at our cheat sheet.
1. Low Vegas Point Total
2. Home Team
3. Facing A New/Inexperienced QB
4. Favorite in Vegas
1. Detroit ($2800)
San Francisco 40.5
Detroit -8.5
This game absolutely JUMPS off the page when selecting a D/ST for Week 16. It is the lowest total of the day in Veagas. Coupled with that, the Lions are a huge HOME favorite. The stars have aligned for us to fire up this $2800 defense with full confidence. The 49ers struggles on the road are well documented. In addition, this is an early start handing the 49ers a huge uphill battle before ever touching the field. The Lions have played pretty well defensively as of late. Darius Slay is emerging as a top tier DB in the NFL. He has only allowed 15 yards receiving on throws to his zone over the last three games. The 49ers are not exactly loaded at talent on either side of the ball. Their latest full time running back Shaun Draughn is now limited and I have serious reservations on how effective he will be on Sunday. The Lions D/ST makes all the sense in the world this week. I would not hesitate to use them in any and all DFS/fantasy formats.
2. Seattle ($4300)
St. Louis 40.5
Seattle -14
The only reason Seattle is not my #1 selection this week is the $1500 price different between them and Detroit. Seattle is as hot as any team in the NFL on both sides of the ball. Their defense has only allowed two TD's in the last three games winning each game by an average of over 25 points in each contest. The Rams are only projected for 13.25 of the 40.5 total Vegas put on the game. The Seahawks are heavy favorites, at home, low scoring total, facing a lousy Rams offense. They have checked off every single box, but you will have to pay up for them. Seattle might be the heaviest owned D/ST in DFS this week, fading them for the Lions could be a very smart play and eventually win you some money.
3. Denver ($3400)
Cincinatti 42
Denver -3.5
Despite what the Steelers just did to the Broncos, the Broncos still have the strongest defense in the NFL. The Panthers are a very close second but I feel like the Broncos have a better overall defense. DeMarcus Ware looks like he is getting healthier as his snap count has risen in each of the last two weeks. Couple him with Von Miller who has 10 sacks all to himself, they have a very strong pass rush. The Bengals are very capable on offense. The only problem is, they are missing their signal caller. A.J. McCarron will not be asked to do near as much as they were asking Andy Dalton to do but the Broncos will show him more looks than he is use to seeing. McCarron is a fine young quarterback but getting your third professional start against this defense could prove too much for an inexperienced QB. Denver has a more attractive price than Seattle. They may very well be the second highest owned D/ST in DFS this week.
Week 16 TE Plays
Week 16 RB Plays
Week 16 QB Plays
I answer any and all fantasy and DFS questions
Tweet me @Brian_Eilering
Email me Br_Eilering@yahoo.com
Week 16 RB Plays
The Daily Fantasy Minute: Where your DFS advice is always free!
Last week we were able to save our money at the RB position as we found value across the board. Several of the players worked out because their price was so low.
Remember, you need 3x value for a cash card and 4x value for a GPP card.
I used Denard Robinson in nearly every line up I played.
Week 15 Price/Points: $4600/15.4
$4600 x 3 = 13.8 (3x Value)
$4600 x 4 = 18.4 (4x Value)
Robinson did not have a great day but he found a way to grunt out 15.4 points. He eclipsed the 3x threshold for our cash games and nearly made it to 4x for GPP's.
The point here is, due to his inexpensive price tag, you have much more wiggle room. He does not have to have a 30 point DK day in order for us to get a return on our investment. There are many DFS players who will spend big money each and every week for a top tier RB. Let's take a look at the difference.
Devonta Freeman
Week 15 Price/Points: $7500/23.1
$7500 x 3 = 22.5
$7500 x 4 = 30.0
Freeman barely paid off for 3x value and came up pretty short for 4x value. When selecting your expensive DFS players, you need to hit on them consistently to win money. I am not saying using expensive RB's are a bad idea, rather it is much easier to hit on a $3500-$4500 RB vs a $7500 RB. This past week was a prime opportunity to take advantage of DraftKings slow moving pricing.
Let's take a look around and see if we can find some more value at the running back position.
1. David Johnson ($5800)
Green Bay 49
Arizona -4
Until DraftKings adjusts their price for David Johnnson, I will keep trotting him out there. He is basically the lone man in a backfield being fueled by the 2nd highest scoring offense in the NFL. Johnson touched the ball 32 times this past week rewarding all DFS players who paid the $5700 it took to get him. Here is the run everyone was talking about last week.
2. Danny Woodhead ($4500)
San Diego 45
Oakland -6
Here we have a TNF game. I tread very lightly when it comes to TNF games. As I always say, there are exceptions to every rule. Melvin Gordon was lost for the year in Week 15. This opens the door for Woodhead who blew up for 4 TD's in Gordon's absence. Woodhead suffered from the same terrible OL Gordon was running behind where he was only able to muster 10 yards on 8 carries. The difference maker is his pass catching ability. Woodhead was able to real in 6 catches for 50 yards where he also caught three of his touchdowns. Woodhead will see a dramatic increase in his workload with Gordon out making him an extremely valuable asset to have on your DraftKings roster. Oakland has been stingy against the run lately but the volume Woodhead is about to receive at his price point is hard ignore. As seen in Week 15, Woodhead has GPP appeal but I wouldn't bet on another multiple touchdown game. Woodhead should be considered in all cash games line ups and I might sprinkle him into a GPP line up or two.
3. Cameron Artis-Payne ($4300) - referred to as CAP moving forward
Carolina -6.5
Atlanta 46
If I am the undefeated Panthers with close to no chance of losing home field advantage throughout the playoffs, there is no way I let Jonathan Stewart play in this game. CAP touched the ball 16 times last week against the Giants and I think you will see more of the same this week. The best things the Panthers can do is get their young players ready for the playoffs in the event another injury takes place. In addition, CAP needs to continue to see reps in the passing game. If the Panthers lose Newton for any reason, their Super Bowl chances are all but lost. The Panthers proved last week they wanted to see more of CAP than Fozzy Whittaker. CAP needs to get better in pass protection and the only way to get better in that area is during practice and live bullets during the game. The Falcons are tied for a league worst with 18 rushing touchdowns given up. If Newton can move the ball early getting his team into the red zone, CAP has a real chance at seeing some GL work capitalizing on the Falcons poor rush defense. There is a very good chance Newton does not play the entire game. We are looking for CAP to get his work in early while Newton is in because I think the offense will sputter greatly if Derek Anderson makes his way into the game. CAP has some boom/bust potential which by definition makes him a better GPP play than cash.
4. DeAngelo Williams ($6500)
Pittsburgh -9.5
Baltimore 48.5
The Steelers are heavy favorites heading into Baltimore. Williams has scored 5 total touchdowns in his last four games. He touches the ball consistently in both the running game and the passing game. Pass catching RB's are extremely valuable on DraftKings where you earn a full 1 point in their PPR format. Just two weeks ago, Lamar Miller piled up 113 yards on 20 carries against this same Baltimore team. I expect the same type of day from Williams this week. This game has a high total and the Steelers are heavy favorites. These are all ingredients we are looking for when searching for our RB's. Williams has the ability to have a huge game and his volume should be high enough for us to consider him in both our GPP and cash game line ups.
5. Karlos Williams ($4500)
Dallas 43
Buffalo -5.5
LeSean McCoy was diagnosed with a torn MCL and the Bills consider him week to week. I will give McCoy credit for seemingly wanting to play through the injury but I think it is time to be put on the shelf. The Bills have little to play for and McCoy would be much better served if he chose to start the heeling process. Williams would be much higher on my list if they were playing a different team. The Cowboys have only given up two 100+ yard rushing days on the entire season. They have given up 14 rushing TD's though boosting Williams value for Week 16. Williams does have 7 TD's combined on the season . Williams has the ability to get through the holes and once he finds green space in front of him, he is able to make the most of what is in front of him. Williams has real good size (6'1"/230 lbs) combined with nice speed (4.48 40) making him a very dangerous runner. Mike Gillislee ($4500) will compete for touches in McCoy's absence. Gillislee is a smaller back with some serious game breaking abililty. Expect to see both runner get their share of touches but Williams is better suited for the heavy lifting. Williams should see 15-20 touches vs Gillislee's 5-10. Both players are priced the same. When all things are equal, I will bet on the heavier workload. Karlos Williams should be considered for your cash game line ups but I would pump the breaks for your GPP line ups.
Week 16 QB Plays
I answer any and all fantasy and DFS questions.
Tweet me @Brian_Eilering
Email me Br_Eilering@yahoo.com
Last week we were able to save our money at the RB position as we found value across the board. Several of the players worked out because their price was so low.
Remember, you need 3x value for a cash card and 4x value for a GPP card.
I used Denard Robinson in nearly every line up I played.
Week 15 Price/Points: $4600/15.4
$4600 x 3 = 13.8 (3x Value)
$4600 x 4 = 18.4 (4x Value)
Robinson did not have a great day but he found a way to grunt out 15.4 points. He eclipsed the 3x threshold for our cash games and nearly made it to 4x for GPP's.
The point here is, due to his inexpensive price tag, you have much more wiggle room. He does not have to have a 30 point DK day in order for us to get a return on our investment. There are many DFS players who will spend big money each and every week for a top tier RB. Let's take a look at the difference.
Devonta Freeman
Week 15 Price/Points: $7500/23.1
$7500 x 3 = 22.5
$7500 x 4 = 30.0
Freeman barely paid off for 3x value and came up pretty short for 4x value. When selecting your expensive DFS players, you need to hit on them consistently to win money. I am not saying using expensive RB's are a bad idea, rather it is much easier to hit on a $3500-$4500 RB vs a $7500 RB. This past week was a prime opportunity to take advantage of DraftKings slow moving pricing.
Let's take a look around and see if we can find some more value at the running back position.
1. David Johnson ($5800)
Green Bay 49
Arizona -4
Until DraftKings adjusts their price for David Johnnson, I will keep trotting him out there. He is basically the lone man in a backfield being fueled by the 2nd highest scoring offense in the NFL. Johnson touched the ball 32 times this past week rewarding all DFS players who paid the $5700 it took to get him. Here is the run everyone was talking about last week.
💪 David Johnson 💪
47 yards of pure beast mode. #AZvsPHI https://t.co/13AQeQA9Kj
— NFL (@NFL) December 21, 2015
This week, Johnson is only $100 more than last week making him the best option for a value play once again. As I touched on above, you can spend more money on the likes of Adrian Peterson or Devonta Freeman. You just have to remember, they cost more money and must have a much better statistical day in order to get you a return on your investment. Johnson does not need another 150+ yard day and 3 TD's to pay off for us. He simply needs 17.4 for 3x and 23.2 for 4x. The volume he receives makes this a very attainable task. Johnson will be highly owned due to his blow up performance but he should be considered in all DFS formats.2. Danny Woodhead ($4500)
San Diego 45
Oakland -6
Here we have a TNF game. I tread very lightly when it comes to TNF games. As I always say, there are exceptions to every rule. Melvin Gordon was lost for the year in Week 15. This opens the door for Woodhead who blew up for 4 TD's in Gordon's absence. Woodhead suffered from the same terrible OL Gordon was running behind where he was only able to muster 10 yards on 8 carries. The difference maker is his pass catching ability. Woodhead was able to real in 6 catches for 50 yards where he also caught three of his touchdowns. Woodhead will see a dramatic increase in his workload with Gordon out making him an extremely valuable asset to have on your DraftKings roster. Oakland has been stingy against the run lately but the volume Woodhead is about to receive at his price point is hard ignore. As seen in Week 15, Woodhead has GPP appeal but I wouldn't bet on another multiple touchdown game. Woodhead should be considered in all cash games line ups and I might sprinkle him into a GPP line up or two.
3. Cameron Artis-Payne ($4300) - referred to as CAP moving forward
Carolina -6.5
Atlanta 46
If I am the undefeated Panthers with close to no chance of losing home field advantage throughout the playoffs, there is no way I let Jonathan Stewart play in this game. CAP touched the ball 16 times last week against the Giants and I think you will see more of the same this week. The best things the Panthers can do is get their young players ready for the playoffs in the event another injury takes place. In addition, CAP needs to continue to see reps in the passing game. If the Panthers lose Newton for any reason, their Super Bowl chances are all but lost. The Panthers proved last week they wanted to see more of CAP than Fozzy Whittaker. CAP needs to get better in pass protection and the only way to get better in that area is during practice and live bullets during the game. The Falcons are tied for a league worst with 18 rushing touchdowns given up. If Newton can move the ball early getting his team into the red zone, CAP has a real chance at seeing some GL work capitalizing on the Falcons poor rush defense. There is a very good chance Newton does not play the entire game. We are looking for CAP to get his work in early while Newton is in because I think the offense will sputter greatly if Derek Anderson makes his way into the game. CAP has some boom/bust potential which by definition makes him a better GPP play than cash.
4. DeAngelo Williams ($6500)
Pittsburgh -9.5
Baltimore 48.5
The Steelers are heavy favorites heading into Baltimore. Williams has scored 5 total touchdowns in his last four games. He touches the ball consistently in both the running game and the passing game. Pass catching RB's are extremely valuable on DraftKings where you earn a full 1 point in their PPR format. Just two weeks ago, Lamar Miller piled up 113 yards on 20 carries against this same Baltimore team. I expect the same type of day from Williams this week. This game has a high total and the Steelers are heavy favorites. These are all ingredients we are looking for when searching for our RB's. Williams has the ability to have a huge game and his volume should be high enough for us to consider him in both our GPP and cash game line ups.
5. Karlos Williams ($4500)
Dallas 43
Buffalo -5.5
LeSean McCoy was diagnosed with a torn MCL and the Bills consider him week to week. I will give McCoy credit for seemingly wanting to play through the injury but I think it is time to be put on the shelf. The Bills have little to play for and McCoy would be much better served if he chose to start the heeling process. Williams would be much higher on my list if they were playing a different team. The Cowboys have only given up two 100+ yard rushing days on the entire season. They have given up 14 rushing TD's though boosting Williams value for Week 16. Williams does have 7 TD's combined on the season . Williams has the ability to get through the holes and once he finds green space in front of him, he is able to make the most of what is in front of him. Williams has real good size (6'1"/230 lbs) combined with nice speed (4.48 40) making him a very dangerous runner. Mike Gillislee ($4500) will compete for touches in McCoy's absence. Gillislee is a smaller back with some serious game breaking abililty. Expect to see both runner get their share of touches but Williams is better suited for the heavy lifting. Williams should see 15-20 touches vs Gillislee's 5-10. Both players are priced the same. When all things are equal, I will bet on the heavier workload. Karlos Williams should be considered for your cash game line ups but I would pump the breaks for your GPP line ups.
Week 16 QB Plays
I answer any and all fantasy and DFS questions.
Tweet me @Brian_Eilering
Email me Br_Eilering@yahoo.com
Tuesday, December 22, 2015
Week 16 WR Plays
The Daily Fantasy Minute: Where your DFS advice is always free!
If you followed along last week, it was my theory to save as much money as possible allowing you to pay up for the big time WR's. The theory paid off in spades. The way my line ups were constructed, I cashed out seven of the eight contests I entered more than doubling my investment for the week.
This week may have a similar tone to it, let's take a look at the best WR options as we piece our DFS puzzles together.
1. Antonio Brown ($9300)
Pittsburgh -9.5
Baltimore 48.5
Wow, that is a VERY high price to pay for the WR position. I'm willing to pay it! You are witnessing HOF caliber play from one of the best wide outs I have ever seen play the game. You can very easily make the Jerry Rice comparisons, but that is another story for another day. Coming into Week 15, Denver had not allowed a single WR to gain more than 36 yards the previous three weeks. In comes Roethlisberger/Brown and they absolutely torch the Broncos. Brown racked up 16 catches against a secondary who had only given up 15 TOTAL receptions the previous three weeks combined! Here are Brown's video game like numbers going back to Week 9 vs Oakland.
Baltimore is struggling on both sides of the ball. This game could easily become very one sided as the Steelers opened as nearly double digit favorites. Brown will have to put up a 27.9 point day to pay off 3x value. Brown has put up more than 40 points in two of the last three weeks. Brown is more than capable of giving us a return on our investment. The Ravens secondary could easily be the last piece of the puzzle we need to fire up Brown in all DFS formats.
5. Michael Floyd ($4900)
Green Bay 49
Arizona -4
I will continue to pound the table for Michael Floyd. He is the best WR the Cardinals have on their roster and Carson Palmer is aware of it. He is playing extremely well and Palmer trusts his down field big play abilities. Floyd makes a tremendous catch on this ball. He has the presence of mind to keep the defender at bay, catch the ball with one hand, all while getting his knee down to complete the reception. The Cardinals are a wonderful football team with many great pieces but as Larry Fitzgerald nears closer to the end of his HOF career, Michael Floyd is making a serious pitch to be the Cardinals top WR for the foreseeable future. Floyd is under priced each week and that allows us to find value in the best WR on the most explosive offense. Vegas is projecting the Cardinals for 26.5 of the total 49. This game is the 2nd highest total on the board this week and if the Packers can get their offense back on track, the game a a legitimate chance to go over the total. The Cardinals lost one of their best defensive (Tyrann Mathieu) players to season ending injury this week which should free up some green space for the Packers to roam. Michael Floyd has led the team in targets (29) over the last three weeks giving him the high floor we are looking for in our cash game line ups. His big play ability allows us to consider him for GPP line ups as well but the wealth of other pass catching weapons on the Cardinals does limit his potential.
Week 16 QB Plays
I answer any and all fantasy and DFS questions!
Tweet Me @Brian_Eilering
Email me Br_Eilering@yahoo.com
If you followed along last week, it was my theory to save as much money as possible allowing you to pay up for the big time WR's. The theory paid off in spades. The way my line ups were constructed, I cashed out seven of the eight contests I entered more than doubling my investment for the week.
This week may have a similar tone to it, let's take a look at the best WR options as we piece our DFS puzzles together.
1. Antonio Brown ($9300)
Pittsburgh -9.5
Baltimore 48.5
Wow, that is a VERY high price to pay for the WR position. I'm willing to pay it! You are witnessing HOF caliber play from one of the best wide outs I have ever seen play the game. You can very easily make the Jerry Rice comparisons, but that is another story for another day. Coming into Week 15, Denver had not allowed a single WR to gain more than 36 yards the previous three weeks. In comes Roethlisberger/Brown and they absolutely torch the Broncos. Brown racked up 16 catches against a secondary who had only given up 15 TOTAL receptions the previous three weeks combined! Here are Brown's video game like numbers going back to Week 9 vs Oakland.
| Week | Opponent | Receptions | Yards | TD |
| 9 | Oakland | 17 | 284 | 0 |
| 10 | Cleveland | 10 | 139 | 2 |
| 11 | Bye | |||
| 12 | Seattle | 6 | 51 | 0 |
| 13 | Indianapolis | 8 | 118 | 2 |
| 14 | Cincinatti | 7 | 87 | 0 |
| 15 | Denver | 16 | 189 | 2 |
| Total | 64 | 868 | 6 | |
| Average | 10.7 | 144.7 | 1 |
Baltimore is struggling on both sides of the ball. This game could easily become very one sided as the Steelers opened as nearly double digit favorites. Brown will have to put up a 27.9 point day to pay off 3x value. Brown has put up more than 40 points in two of the last three weeks. Brown is more than capable of giving us a return on our investment. The Ravens secondary could easily be the last piece of the puzzle we need to fire up Brown in all DFS formats.
2. Allen Robinson ($7500)
Jacksonville 51.5
New Orleans -3.5
This could very well be my favorite play of the day. Brandon Browner benefited from covering a gimpy Calvin Johnson on MNF. The same will not be true this week where Browner will be forced to cover a true elite top tier WR. Allen Robinson is simply having a remarkable season and Blake Bortles is well aware of his capabilities. Robinson has nearly doubled the next closest player in Red Zone targets (Robinson 21/Hurns 12) this season and he has made the most of those opportunities. He has turned those targets into a league leading 13 receiving TD's (tied with two others). Robinson has serious big play ability and an amazing talent to high point the football. Robinson will be among the top five WR's chosen in your season long drafts this coming year. My recommendation...pay the price! The Saints are a dream match up for Bortles/Hurns/Robinson. This game has the highest total on the board making Robinson a great start for all DFS games. Later discussed, he will be a "Tent Pole" in my line up cards this week.
3. Jeremy Maclin ($6000)
Cleveland 45
Kansas City -12.5
Does anyone remember a time when Chiefs WR's couldn't catch a touchdown? I vaguely remember something being said about it. Jeremy Maclin has changed that stat where he now has six receiving TD's on the season. I love finding value in the $6000 price range. Jeremy Maclin has averaged 10 targets over his last four games converting those targets into 374 yards and four touchdowns. The Browns defensive woes continue where they lost their best DB, Joe Haden, to season ending injury prior to Week 15. The Browns are only projected for 16.25 of the total Vegas has put on this game leaving more than 28 points for the Chiefs to gobble up. Look For Maclin to be spread around the field as Andy Reid moves his chess piece around attempting to prey open the long play. Maclin is a very consistent player in terms of fantasy and his high floor makes him a tremendous cash game play. Alex Smith still refuses to consistently push the ball down the field so the ceiling for Maclin is quite limited. Maclin does not make a great GPP play this week.
4. Golden Tate ($5800)
San Francisco 40.5
Detroit -8.5
As we watched Calvin Johnson limp around the field on MNF, there was a beneficiary, Golden Tate. While Calvin only saw one target in the game, Golden Tate caught all six of his targets putting two of the in the end zone. Tate has averaged 8.5 targets per game over the last four games and has been able to turn those targets into five TD's in as many games. The 49ers are awful coming across country, especially for an early start. They are only projected for 16 points in this contest while the Lions are projected for 24.5. Matthew Stafford has been very efficient lately.
Matthew Stafford has a 68.2% completion rate & 14:2 TD:INT ratio since #Lions Week 9 bye. DET is 4-2, with both losses by 7 points or less.
— Evan Silva (@evansilva) December 22, 2015
Golden Tate has five of his six touchdowns in this same stretch while we have seen the targets for Calvin Johnson go from 14, 8, 5, 1 over the last four weeks. It is clear the health of Johnson is limiting his play and Golden Tate is making the most of his opportunity. Tate has yet to top 100 yards this season limiting his GPP possibilities but his consistency makes him a great cash play for Week 16. 5. Michael Floyd ($4900)
Green Bay 49
Arizona -4
I will continue to pound the table for Michael Floyd. He is the best WR the Cardinals have on their roster and Carson Palmer is aware of it. He is playing extremely well and Palmer trusts his down field big play abilities. Floyd makes a tremendous catch on this ball. He has the presence of mind to keep the defender at bay, catch the ball with one hand, all while getting his knee down to complete the reception. The Cardinals are a wonderful football team with many great pieces but as Larry Fitzgerald nears closer to the end of his HOF career, Michael Floyd is making a serious pitch to be the Cardinals top WR for the foreseeable future. Floyd is under priced each week and that allows us to find value in the best WR on the most explosive offense. Vegas is projecting the Cardinals for 26.5 of the total 49. This game is the 2nd highest total on the board this week and if the Packers can get their offense back on track, the game a a legitimate chance to go over the total. The Cardinals lost one of their best defensive (Tyrann Mathieu) players to season ending injury this week which should free up some green space for the Packers to roam. Michael Floyd has led the team in targets (29) over the last three weeks giving him the high floor we are looking for in our cash game line ups. His big play ability allows us to consider him for GPP line ups as well but the wealth of other pass catching weapons on the Cardinals does limit his potential.
Week 16 QB Plays
I answer any and all fantasy and DFS questions!
Tweet Me @Brian_Eilering
Email me Br_Eilering@yahoo.com
Week 16 Vegas Lines
The Daily Fantasy Minute: Where your DFS advice is always free!
The lines pulled below are from DonBest.com. If you have any questions about any of the lines, don't hesitate to ask me.
The lines pulled below are from DonBest.com. If you have any questions about any of the lines, don't hesitate to ask me.
FL WEEK 16 - Thursday, December 24th | ||||||||||
| Rot | Opener | Team | Time | SC | Westgate | Mirage | Station | Pinnacle | SIA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 101 102 |
47.0
-5.5 |
8:25 PM
|
-
-
|
47.0
-5.5
|
47.0
-5.5
|
47.0
-5.5
|
47.0
-5.0
|
47.0
-5.0
| ||
NFL WEEK 16 - Saturday, December 26th | ||||||||||
| Rot | Opener | Team | Time | SC | Westgate | Mirage | Station | Pinnacle | SIA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 103 104 |
48.5
-3.0 |
8:25 PM
|
-
-
|
48.0
-3.0
|
48.0
-3.0
|
48.0
-3.0
|
47.0
-3.0
|
47.5
-3.0
| ||
NFL WEEK 16 - Sunday, December 27th | ||||||||||
| Rot | Opener | Team | Time | SC | Westgate | Mirage | Station | Pinnacle | SIA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 105 106 |
45.5
-6.5 |
8:30 PM
|
-
-
|
45.5
-6.0
|
45.5
-6.5
|
45.5
-6.0
|
45.5
-6.0
|
45.5
-6.0
| ||
| 107 108 |
46.5
-2.5 |
1:00 PM
|
-
-
|
46.0
-3.0
|
46.5
-3.0
|
46.0
-3.0
|
45.5
-3.0
|
46.0
-3.0
| ||
| 109 110 |
-7.0
47.5 |
1:00 PM
|
-
-
|
-7.0
47.5
|
-7.0
47.5
|
-7.0
47.5
|
-7.0
47.0
|
-7.0
47.5
| ||
| 111 112 |
44.0
-6.5 |
1:00 PM
|
-
-
|
42.5
-6.0
|
43.0
-6.5
|
43.0
-6.0
|
42.5
-6.0
|
43.0
-6.0
| ||
| 113 114 |
-
- |
4:05 PM
|
-
-
|
52.0
-3.5
|
-
-
|
-
PK
|
-
-
|
-
-
| ||
| 115 116 |
43.0
-7.5 |
1:00 PM
|
-
-
|
43.0
-9.0
|
43.0
-8.5
|
43.0
-9.0
|
43.0
-9.0
|
43.0
-9.0
| ||
| 117 118 |
44.0
-13.0 |
1:00 PM
|
-
-
|
42.5
-12.5
|
43.5
-12.5
|
42.5
-12.5
|
42.5
-12.5
|
43.0
-12.5
| ||
| 119 120 |
-
- |
1:00 PM
|
-
-
|
-
-
|
-
-
|
-
-
|
-
-
|
-
-
| ||
| 121 122 |
-3.0
46.5 |
1:00 PM
|
-
-
|
-3.5
46.0
|
-3.0
46.5
|
-3.5
46.0
|
-3.0
45.5
|
-3.0
46.0
| ||
| 123 124 |
-
-4.5 |
1:00 PM
|
-
-
|
-
-
|
-
-
|
-
-
|
-
-
|
-
-
| ||
| 125 126 |
49.5
-4.5 |
4:25 PM
|
-
-
|
49.5
-4.5
|
49.5
-4.5
|
50.0
-4.5
|
49.5
-4.0
|
49.5
-4.0
| ||
| 127 128 |
42.0
-13.5 |
4:25 PM
|
-
-
|
40.0
-13.5
|
40.0
-13.5
|
41.0
-13.5
|
40.5
-13.5
|
40.5
-13.0
| ||
| 129 130 |
-9.5
47.0 |
1:00 PM
|
-
-
|
-10.0
47.5
|
-10.0
47.0
|
-10.0
47.5
|
-10.0
47.5
|
-10.0
47.5
| ||
NFL WEEK 16 - Monday, December 28th | ||||||||||
| Rot | Opener | Team | Time | SC | Westgate | Mirage | Station | Pinnacle | SIA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 131 132 |
42.0
-3.5 |
8:30 PM
|
-
-
|
40.5
-3.5
|
41.0
-3.5
|
40.5
-3.5
|
40.5
-3.5
|
40.5
-3.5
| ||
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