Week 10 Premium #DFS Plays

As we move forward in the NFL season, I will have different levels of plays each week.

Premium Plays:  Should be used in all line ups and all contests.  These are scenarios where both the match up and the price of the player align for the premium scenario.  There will only be a handful of premium plays each week.

Strong Plays:  Should be considered for your line ups but talent/match up/scenario/price isn't premium.  Strong plays will simply be a good recommendation.

Value Plays:  Usually a scenario created by an injury or emerging player where the market price has not yet properly adjusted to the situation.

No Play:  The match up is not conducive for a play.  It would be a larger gamble than what I like to look for.


Week 10 Premium Plays

Allen Robinson ($6700)
Jacksonville vs Baltimore

Bortles doesn't really care who is covering Allen Robinson.  He continues to feed him the ball and Robinson continues to turn those opportunities into great games.  The Baltimore pass defense has given up on average 305 yards through the air over the last three weeks.  Allen Hurns was in a walking boot Monday so we will monitor his progress as the week moves on.  Whether Hurns plays or not has no affect on this recommendation.  Allen Robinson should be played on all of your daily cards.

DeAngelo Williams ($6500)
Pittsburgh vs Cleveland
Williams exploded in Week 9 in the absence of LeVeon Bell including 225 combined yards and 2 TD's.  He now faces a Browns defense who ranks 32nd in the NFL against the rush.  The Browns are averaging an astonishing 147 yards per game against the run.  Ben Roethlisberger will be out this week lending to the Steelers running a bit more.  The whole offense is better with Big Ben in, but don't hold back putting Williams in your DFS line ups.  Both his price and match up are prime scenarios putting him in our premium play area for Week 10.

Jordan Reed ($4600)
Washington vs New Orleans
The Saints defense is absolutely horrendous putting their team in weekly shoot outs.  Delanie Walker put up monster numbers against the Saints in Week 9 with 7/95/2.  The Saints have given up a mind blowing 24 passing TD's through 9 games and have only 4 INT's on the season.  While I will never hint at not starting Gronkowski ($8000), Reed looks like a prime match up at nearly half the price.



Br_Eilering@yahoo.com
Twitter: @Brian_Eilering

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Week 9 Results

If you followed my plays this week, I hope you found your way to the green like I did.  My cash game card pulled out 185.84 points cashing each contest I entered it in.  My GPP card hit 190.62, also cashing on each ticket.  While I didn't win the big one, once again, I did double my money for Week 9.

Noteworthy items taken from Week 9:

Dez Bryant is ready to be trusted in both daily and season long formats.

Derek Carr came across country for an early start and continued to pile up points.

Ben Roethlisberger was back to his old self before getting injured once again.  Biggest beneficiary was Antonio Brown with an amazing 284 yards helping our GPP card with 49.6 points.

Sammy Watkins looks to be ready for the lights once again though a Thursday night game vs the Jets is not a match up I recommend.  Watkins caught all 8 targets for 168/1.

The Bills also found a way to make two RB's work.  McCoy - 112/1, Williams 110/2.

Lamar Miller combined for 141 yards and a TD.

The Packers started off unbelievably slow but Rodgers warmed up ending his day with 369/4.
Eddy Lacy was again replaced by Starks who, just as before, outplayed the starter.  Lacy doesn't look the same to me.  Starks is a fine player but not tremendous.  Starks is consistently playing better than Lacy.

LeGarratte Blount took over most running duties when Lewis got hurt piling up 129 on 29 carries.  Brandon Bolden picked up the receiving work left behind from Lewis.  Bolden will be a very interesting play this week for just $3000.

Brandon LaFell also found his way to 109 yards on 5 receptions.  It looks like this could be the trend moving forward.  LaFell's price is now $4100, up from $3200.  I thought LaFell was under priced in week 9, he could still be a bargain at $4100.

The Saints continue to find themselves in shoot outs due to their poor defensive play.  The Saints defense gave up 483 of offensive yards to the Titans who seem to struggle on offense at times.  The Saints now face Washington.  This will be a game where I try to take advantage of some matchups.

The Peterson/Gurley show did produce some fruit from the tree.  Peterson bettered Gurley by hitting for 125/1 vs Gurley 89/1.

The Allen's (Robinson/Hurns) combined for 243 yards.  Hurns was in a walking boot Monday and we will need to monitor as the week continues.  Jacksonville plays Baltimore this week which is a VERY favorable match up.  Allen Robinson ($6700) will likely be in all my LU's this coming week.

Mike Evans recorded an amazing 18 targets though only catching 8 of those.  He did tally 152 yards though if he could have converted a couple more of those targets he might have hit Antonio Brown numbers.

If you just look at the box score, Charles Sims had a much better day than Doug Martin though Sims numbers are padded by a 59 yard run.  While you can't dismiss the 59 yard run, I wouldn't read too much into the box score.  Both players fumbled once.  We may be looking at a bit of a timeshare looking forward.

Odell Beckham was another target hog.  ODB saw 17 targets converting 9 of those into catches for 105 yards.

The Broncos trade for a aging yet still athletic TE Vernon Davis, so what happens?  Owen Daniels goes 6/102/1.  That is precisely how you draw it up.  Right.

Andrew Luck showed some glimpses of his former self.  This is the kind of performance against a strong Broncos D that can get you on track for the rest of the season.  The Colts are on their bye in week 10 but Luck will probably be a strong play against the Falcons in week 11.  His price has fallen, so he will be priced attractively giving us an opportunity to take advantage of a slow reacting market.

The Eagles offense got going against the Cowboys.  Both Murray and Matthews proved relavant while Jordan Matthews had a nice game as well with 133/1.  I am not a huge fan of Jordan Matthews due to his drop problem.  His price this week is $6100 playing the Dolphins coming up.

Jeremy Langford filled in for Forte nicely combining for 142 yards and a TD.  He was one of the best bargains of the week and if Forte misses any more action,  Langford will continue to get touches.  Unfortunately, the Bears are facing a tough Rams defense this week and I will likely be passing on Langford here.

The Chargers offense chose to spread the ball around in the absence of Kennan Allen.  Six different players caught passes from Rivers, I think you can expect to see more of the same moving forward.

On to Week 10.  Please feel free to contact me with any questions or comments.  I will attempt to answer them all.


Br_Eilering@yahoo.com
@Brian_Eilering

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Week 9 Line Up Cards

All of fantasy football in all formats is just a puzzle.  For DFS purposes, it is a puzzle that has a foundation in stats and numbers.  As I put together my different puzzle pieces, I often think what would happen if I were to use those pieces instead of the ones I chose.

Each week I believe I have located the correct puzzle pieces though often times I don't put them in the correct places.

Here are the puzzle pieces I think we should be using this week.

Line Up 1 - Strong Cash Game Card

Pos	Player	FPTS
QB	Derek Carr	0	swap out
RB	Jeremy Langford	0	swap out
RB	D. Williams	0	swap out
WR	Amari Cooper	0	swap out
WR	A.J. Green	9.3	lock
WR	Alshon Jeffery	0	swap out
TE	Benjamin Watson	0	swap out
FLEX	Mark Ingram	0	swap out
DST	Falcons	0	swap out

Line Up 2 - GPP Card

Pos	Player	FPPG
QB	Matt Ryan	17.9	swap out
RB	Todd Gurley	20.9	swap out
RB	Jeremy Langford	3.6	swap out
WR	Stevie Johnson	10.7	swap out
WR	Julio Jones	26.5	swap out
WR	Brandon LaFell	6.6	swap out
TE	Antonio Gates Q	19.4	swap out
FLEX	Antonio Brown	19.6	swap out
DST	Falcons	7.0	swap out

Eifert Hits It Big On TNF

As I noted yesterday, I entered many contest including TNF players and loads of contestants used multiple players from the contest.  The only real strong play from last night's game was Tyler Eifert piling up 28.3 points on three TD's.

The game played out in the favor for those not getting on the Jeremy Hill train who was owned by 18.7% of contestants.

AJ Green was quite a let down as he watched (ad blocked for) the Eifert TD's.

I see many cards who filled up ALL spots with the exception of one (and I don't know why just one.  It's like the old Diet Coke commercials...just one calorie).  Those cards while leading going into Friday, will be the last time they lead the contest.  The best case in these instances, the contestants are sitting at 110-120 points with one player to go.  Unless planes fall out of the sky, these score won't hold up.

While the Eifert TD's were extremely painful to watch, it isn't the end of the world and most contests are wide open with the exception of the contestants who selected a full card of players from TNF.

NFL Week 9 WR DFS Plays Of The Week

As we work our way into the WR market, let's keep in mind Draft Kings is a full PPR scoring format.  I prefer to load up on WR in my DK rosters.  Since I found a way to spend just $9500 on my RB's, this again enables a ton of flexibility at the WR position.

Julio Jones continues to reward those willing to put in the investment.  His price is now at $9300 but Julio has a very low floor which fits the mold we are looking for in cash games.  If you are to reach the 3x benchmark, Julio needs to put up at 27.9.  Not unreachable but has fallen short of his 3x mark three of the last four weeks.

Until Dez Bryant ($7900) get a bit more healthy and gets a bit more Romo, I will be passing.  His floor, as seen in week 8, can be quite low.  A player priced at $7900, you can't really afford to take a clunker of 3.2 points.  I would much prefer to roll the dice elsewhere.

Best Value For GPP Play
Brandon LaFell ($3200) is one of the best hail mary plays of the week.  As noted in the QB section of today's post, Brady has a legit chance to be the top scoring QB in Week 9.  As a result, Brandon LaFell is starting to get warmed up and is the clear #2 on the Pats roster.  Eventually, a team may cover Gronk, and when they do...a WR will be running free.  LaFell stands to benefit and could easily see 10 targets as he gets back into football shape.  Despite dropping 5 balls in his first week back from his injury, LaFell piled up another 7 targets from Brady against a Dolphins Defense that seemed to be on the rise.  Brady has averaged 39 pass attempts over the last four weeks and that number shouldn't dip against the Washington Redskins who just gave up 289 yards to rookie QB Jameis Winston.  It should also be noted Winston tossed 2 TD's to 0 INT's in that match up.  LaFell looks like a GREAT play this week.  I may shy away from cash games, but definitely tee him up in GPP's.

Alshon Jeffery ($6700) is another solid play.  The Chargers are terrible on defense and the Bears are getting warmed up.  I love Jeffery here, his price should be much higher (Above Dez Bryant) yet remains sub $7000.  He is a target monster with a QB who isn't afraid to force feed him the ball.  He has exceptional skills and the offense is being run through him with Langford picking up the scraps this week.  I think he is a must own in all formats.

Amari Cooper ($6700) is living up to the hype.  I am stacking Carr/Cooper this week and am not hesitating.  Derek Carr is playing above my expectation level, and is playing as a full QB1 right now.  Cooper has benefited greatly.  While the Raiders faced a tough pass D last week against the Jets, Carr didn't care.  He still threw for more than 300 yards and multiple TD's.  Cooper is a strong cash game play and don't be afraid to use him in GPP LU's either.

Brandin Cooks ($5800) feels like a tremendous GPP play.  As the Saints took advantage of a bad NYG defensive team, Tennessee isn't exactly the 85  Bears.  Cooks is on the rise and I like to be ahead of the curve.  Draft Kings is slower to adjust their pricing than Fan Duel, buy now while the price is right.  It won't stay here for long.

AJ Green ($7600) stands to have a huge night against a terrible Browns pass defense (24th/15 TD's given up).  Dalton is having an MVP type season and while I don't like playing players on TNF, sometimes you take talent over the day of the week they are playing.

Chargers WR's
Phillip Rivers is averaging 43.6 attempts per game and 344.25 yards per game.  Keenan Allen was leading the league in receptions when he went down with a lacerated kidney.  Who benefits?
Stevie Johnson ($3200) is a remarkable value
Malcom Floyd ($3900) is aging but should benefit
Antonio Gates ($4700) is a long time Rivers favorite
Dontrelle Inman ($3000) is a great hail mary play



Your questions and comments are welcome.
email br_eilering@yahoo.com
twitter @Brian_Eilering

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Enter Contests Including TNF

Before I break for lunch, I want to take a minute to remind you to get into Thursday contests!  This is a great opportunity to get an edge on our competitors.  People LOVE to start TNF players because, quite simply, they want to watch their players.

I have seen LU cards that will fill out their ENTIRE roster with TNF players.  This could be one of the worst strategies ever played.   Instead, enter contest including TNF and select the match ups you prefer to exploit.  AJ Green is a nice player with what is likely a low floor in tonight's match up, but don't go crazy.  Sit back, let others fill out the cards with TNF players, and pick up your points on the rest of the weekends slate of games.

The Week 9 Deals Of The Week

While I have taken some time off from writing this blog, I have not taken any time off from DFS play on @DraftKings.  This season has been quite fruitful for me this season.  While I have not won a large GPP jack pot, I have been in the mix each and every week.  In addition, I have netted strong results from my cash game LU's.

You can find me on Twitter @Brian_Eilering

There are several fantastic plays to take advantage of this week so let's get to it.  Starting with QB's and RB's, here are some players that will find their way to most of my LU cards.

QB
If you are looking to save a few bucks at QB, look no further than Derek Carr at $5500.  Adding Carr at QB offers you much more flexibility at the WR position where Draft Kings PPR format all but requires you to nail down quality players at
that position.



Tom Brady ($8500) is most likely highest scoring QB this week, while I will not be using him this week (I wouldn't tell you not to) I will be taking advantage of his points at other positions.

Eli Manning ($6900) should continue his hot streak going up against a woeful TB team that gives up points to passers in bunches.  I don't think his price reflects his play.  Odell Beckham is now fully healthy and the play of Manning is showing it.  Ride the hot hand while his price is still low.


Running Back

Injuries play a major factor in taking advantage of a market that is at times slow to react.  As Ben Roethlisberger gets the rust knocked off, DeAngelo Williams ($5500) steps into one of the best spots any RB of his caliber can ask for.  His pass catching ability makes him one of the more attractive players this week.  I do believe he will be owned heavily, I don't see myself fading him.  There is just too much value there enabling us to  take advantage at the WR position.  It should be noted that Williams led all RB's in the weeks LaVeon Bell was out earlier in the season.

Jeremy Langford ($4000) is another RB stepping into a prime situation.  When Matt Forte went down, Langford played every snap following the injury.  While I don't think Langford is quite as gifted as Matt Forte, his price tells us to PLAY HIM!  Another player I will be using across the board.

Other RB's to consider
Until Todd Gurley ($6900) slows down, he's a solid cash game play each and every week.  His big play potential also makes him a very attractive GPP play for a player quickly becoming the best RB in the NFL.

Devonte Freeman ($8000) is now the highest salaried RB on Draft Kings.  Freeman has not scored in the last two weeks but continues to bite of chunk plays running through tremendous holes the Atlanta OL is creating for him.  While he is double the price of Langford, I do feel like a TD or two could be in the cards this week against a 49er team who is right in the middle of a downward spiral.

Play Of The Week!
Again, injuries are something to keep our eyes on as we make our rosters.  Khiry Robinson is now done for the year and this is exactly a scenario where Mark Ingram ($6500) can step up, take a larger role, and make fantasy chicken salad for us.

CJ Spiller ($3100) offers a great value but I believe Ingram is the play here.  As Robinson goes down, I fully anticipate more red zone and goal line work for Ingram.  This is the exact kind of scenario that can help us take down one of those large GPP tournament games and also has a low floor to use in our cash game LU's.