I hate how real life gets in the way of a fun hobby. That is exactly what is happening. My work is keeping me from my favorite hobby. My apologies to you guys (and there are a ton) that come back week after week, my time is being sucked out of me by real life responsibilities.
I still read and do as much research as normal, I just don't have the time to write it all up. So, if you have questions, don't hesitate to ask. I still have several line ups already filled out and ready to go.
I do like Cinci D tonight on TNF, I would couple them with Jeremy Hill as well.
Questions/Comments
Br_Eilering@yahoo.com
@Brian_Eilering
And hey, if you live in or may be moving to the Atlanta area and happen to be in the market for a home, give me a call/text. (678-978-8472)
I have done tons of transactions over the last year, I would be glad to help you out in your search!
Thursday, September 29, 2016
Thursday, September 22, 2016
Week 3 #DFS Must Starts
Free DFS Content - NFL Week 3 Notes
I don't have time to fill out plays for each position. Instead, I will hi-light some players that are most of my LU cards and others that barely missed the cut.
Dak Prescott ($5700) - The Chicago D lost half their starters on Sunday. They also lost their starting QB. Chicago is going to have a rough day vs Dallas, Most Cowboys will prosper.
Matt Ryan ($7400) - Ryan is playing good football and Falcons playing Saints.
Ezekiel Elliot ($6900) - Too rich for my blood, but see reasons above.
Melvin Gordon ($5800) - Playing poor Indy D and Woodhead gone for year. Volume will skyrocket. I have him on all cards.
Charles Simms ($4900) - Martin out, should have tons of volume and receptions. Don't like match up but like the player Week 3.
Carolina RB - Not sure where this one will fall. Cameron Artis-Payne hasn't been active for a game yet, Fozzy looked good last week, Tolbert still exists. Bad cash game guess, better GPP play.
L. Blount ($4400) - New QB, Pats could decide to run Blount into the ground tonight. Houston D is stingy once again. No play for me.
Jay Ajayi ($4000) - Arian Foster out could lead to heavy volume for Ajayi. His ability is there though I am not convinced he has it upstairs. He's priced appropriately. Risk/Reward.
Defenses - Several new QB's this week!
Houston - Jimmy G out, Jacoby Brissett in.
Dallas - Cutler out, Hoyer in. I've used in nearly every LU in Week 3.
Arizona - Buffalo offense is just terrible
TB - Nice price ($3100) playing a team coming across country who is terrible on offense (Rams)
Miami - Probably hottest D this week playing Cleveland with new QB...again
Here are a couple ways your line ups may end up. Obviously, the whole thing is just a puzzle, put the pieces where you may. I think Melvin Gordon is a corner piece Week 3 though.
Twitter: @Brian_Eilering
Email: Br_Eilering@yahoo.com
I don't have time to fill out plays for each position. Instead, I will hi-light some players that are most of my LU cards and others that barely missed the cut.
Dak Prescott ($5700) - The Chicago D lost half their starters on Sunday. They also lost their starting QB. Chicago is going to have a rough day vs Dallas, Most Cowboys will prosper.
Matt Ryan ($7400) - Ryan is playing good football and Falcons playing Saints.
Ezekiel Elliot ($6900) - Too rich for my blood, but see reasons above.
Melvin Gordon ($5800) - Playing poor Indy D and Woodhead gone for year. Volume will skyrocket. I have him on all cards.
Charles Simms ($4900) - Martin out, should have tons of volume and receptions. Don't like match up but like the player Week 3.
Carolina RB - Not sure where this one will fall. Cameron Artis-Payne hasn't been active for a game yet, Fozzy looked good last week, Tolbert still exists. Bad cash game guess, better GPP play.
L. Blount ($4400) - New QB, Pats could decide to run Blount into the ground tonight. Houston D is stingy once again. No play for me.
Jay Ajayi ($4000) - Arian Foster out could lead to heavy volume for Ajayi. His ability is there though I am not convinced he has it upstairs. He's priced appropriately. Risk/Reward.
Defenses - Several new QB's this week!
Houston - Jimmy G out, Jacoby Brissett in.
Dallas - Cutler out, Hoyer in. I've used in nearly every LU in Week 3.
Arizona - Buffalo offense is just terrible
TB - Nice price ($3100) playing a team coming across country who is terrible on offense (Rams)
Miami - Probably hottest D this week playing Cleveland with new QB...again
Here are a couple ways your line ups may end up. Obviously, the whole thing is just a puzzle, put the pieces where you may. I think Melvin Gordon is a corner piece Week 3 though.
Twitter: @Brian_Eilering
Email: Br_Eilering@yahoo.com
Tuesday, September 20, 2016
DFS Week 3
My postings will be limited this week. I am in Orlando with the family and won't have much time to post on my blog.
Week 2 was a rough one for me. I hope you had more success.
DFS is similar to betting. If you continue to bet the right side, you will lose some but in the end, you will win more than you lose. I 100% feel like I bet on the right side in Week 2, the dice just didn't roll in my favor.
If you had a good week, let me know!
Week 2 was a rough one for me. I hope you had more success.
DFS is similar to betting. If you continue to bet the right side, you will lose some but in the end, you will win more than you lose. I 100% feel like I bet on the right side in Week 2, the dice just didn't roll in my favor.
If you had a good week, let me know!
Thursday, September 15, 2016
Draft Kings - DFM Reader League
If there is enough interest, I will start a Daily Fantasy Minute reader league on DK. It would be a $3 league more for just fun. Contact me if you might be interested and I'll set it up.
Br_Eilering@yahoo.com
@Brian_Eilering
Br_Eilering@yahoo.com
@Brian_Eilering
Week 2 WR Plays - DFS
Free Premium DFS Content - All Free, All The Time
Without having the massive savings at the RB position, you will have to spend a little more wisely this week at the WR position. I tentatively made a LU for a large GPP I won a ticket for last week. It is vastly different than what I was able to construct just one week ago. The biggest reason is due to the pricing of RB's and not having that easy $/workload ratio to take advantage of.
Let's get to the WR's, in order of price:
Odell Beckham Jr ($9500)
New Orleans +5
NY Giants 53
I know it's easy to cherry pick ODB any given week, but this one is extra special. He will need to hit 34 to reach his GPP ROI of 4x. I don't see that as a problem. The Saints don't have anyone that can cover ODB. He is going to go off just as the rest of this offense will. I have already put him in my GPP LU's and will not shy away from him in my cash games either. He will be highly owned.
Julio Jones ($9200)
Atlanta +4.5
Oakland 49.5
For you new readers, you are probably thinking, boy this guy is CRAZY writing about ODB and Julio! I rarely write about the top few WR's unless their match up is so juicy I can not lay off. I think the Ryan/Julio stack makes a ton of sense this week for your GPP contests. Manning/ODB will be more widely owned so you might get a slight advantage here. The Raiders just gave up a 400 yard 4 TD day to Drew Bress in Week 1. The Falcons had over 320 and 2 TD's their own vs the Buccaneers. The Falcons had a tough time running the ball Week 1 with Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman. I fully expect this trend to continue in Week 2. The Falcons will need to attack the weakness of the Raiders and that is not up the middle where Khalil Mack resides. For a total price of $16,000, I like the Jones/Ryan stack. Most fantasy owners are still not very keen of Ryan, now is a good time to take advantage.
Kelvin Benjamin ($6500)
San Fran +13
Carolina 45.5
The Panthers are basically slated for roughly 30 points in this contest while the poor 49ers are in line for just under 2 TD's. Carolina will BLOW out SF this week. SF is a bad football team and somehow the Rams made them look like playoff contenders. Benjamin was targeted a monster 12 times against a stingy Denver D in Week 1. He converted those 12 targets into a 6/91/1 stat line. I fully expect more of the same in Week 2. Benjamin took a few nasty low hits around his knees and showed no signs of it bothering him. I think he erased everyone's thoughts of him being hampered by his knee injury forcing him to miss the entire 2015 season.
Willie Snead ($5800)
New Orleans +5
NY Giants 53
Willie Snead looks like he could be the co-WR1 in this offense. He caught all nine of his targets totaling 9/172/1. The Giants pass defense was dead last in 2015 and this game will have a TON of scoring all day long. Snead is priced in the middle tier while his production shows he could easily be priced in the upper tier. Brees shows full trust in Snead evidenced by his targets. There will be many weeks where Cooks/Snead are very useful WR's in this offense and Week 2 vs the Giants is a prime example. Another great example of $/workload looks like a tremendous bargain.
Travis Benjamin ($4400)
Jacksonville +3
San Diego 47
With the unfortunate injury to Keenan Allen, the Phillip Rivers targets have to be spread out somewhere. I believe the wealth will be spread out considerably amongst several players. The loss of Allen will slow down the entire offense but Rivers will still throw the ball. The price of Benjamin is worthy of a look. Benjamin hauled in 7 of his 8 targets in Week 1 for a pedestrian 32 yards. It would only take one missed tackle from the Jags for Benjamin to have a much stronger fantasy day.
Tajae Sharp ($4100)
Tennessee +7
Detroit 47
I said last week that Sharp looks to be the clear WR1 in this Titans offense. He proved just that totaling 11 targets bringing in 7 of those for 76 yards. His volume is extremely high for his price. Sharp is a great bargain for cash games. He makes a decent fill in for GPP contests but the Titans offense limits his ultimate production. The Lions showed vulnerability in the pass game last week giving up 385 yards and 4 TD's to the Colts while not coming up with any INT's.
Tyrell Williams ($3700)
Jacksonville +3
San Diego 47
Williams stands 6'4" and 205 lbs. He has the prototypical size of an elite WR. Williams is currently #3 on the depth chart but could easily see himself rise with a good performance. With Kennan Allen out, Williams has a chance to see an increased roll in this offense. Williams saw 5 targets in Week 1 where he caught 2 for 71 yards.
Marvin Jones ($5500)/Golden Tate ($6800)
Tennessee +7
Detroit 47
Based on Week 1, Marvin Jones is the much better bargain here. Per @MikeTagliereNFL , I found this stat interesting this week.
Average Depth Of Target:
Golden Tate - 1.3 Yards
Riddick - 1.8 Yards
Boldin - 2.0 yards
Abdullah 0.4 Yards
Marvin Jones - 12.0 Yards
That is not to say the game script can't change in Week 2, but it does offer clear evidence how the coaching staff tends to use their offensive weapons.
It should be noted, Jones was targeted 10 times only catching 4 of them. This can easily be attributed to the above depth of target stat.
On the other hand, Tate caught all seven of his targets though his yardage (41 Yards) was considerably lower.
I think Jones is the better buy here due to his price. Tate will have to find himself a little further downfield in Week 2 before I give him my trust once again. I have not given up on him by any means. I do own him in Dynasty as well as several season long leagues I am in.
I answer any and all fantasy and DFS questions
Br_Eilering@yahoo.com
@Brian_Eilering
Without having the massive savings at the RB position, you will have to spend a little more wisely this week at the WR position. I tentatively made a LU for a large GPP I won a ticket for last week. It is vastly different than what I was able to construct just one week ago. The biggest reason is due to the pricing of RB's and not having that easy $/workload ratio to take advantage of.
Let's get to the WR's, in order of price:
Odell Beckham Jr ($9500)
New Orleans +5NY Giants 53
I know it's easy to cherry pick ODB any given week, but this one is extra special. He will need to hit 34 to reach his GPP ROI of 4x. I don't see that as a problem. The Saints don't have anyone that can cover ODB. He is going to go off just as the rest of this offense will. I have already put him in my GPP LU's and will not shy away from him in my cash games either. He will be highly owned.
Julio Jones ($9200)
Atlanta +4.5
Oakland 49.5
For you new readers, you are probably thinking, boy this guy is CRAZY writing about ODB and Julio! I rarely write about the top few WR's unless their match up is so juicy I can not lay off. I think the Ryan/Julio stack makes a ton of sense this week for your GPP contests. Manning/ODB will be more widely owned so you might get a slight advantage here. The Raiders just gave up a 400 yard 4 TD day to Drew Bress in Week 1. The Falcons had over 320 and 2 TD's their own vs the Buccaneers. The Falcons had a tough time running the ball Week 1 with Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman. I fully expect this trend to continue in Week 2. The Falcons will need to attack the weakness of the Raiders and that is not up the middle where Khalil Mack resides. For a total price of $16,000, I like the Jones/Ryan stack. Most fantasy owners are still not very keen of Ryan, now is a good time to take advantage.
Kelvin Benjamin ($6500)
San Fran +13
Carolina 45.5
The Panthers are basically slated for roughly 30 points in this contest while the poor 49ers are in line for just under 2 TD's. Carolina will BLOW out SF this week. SF is a bad football team and somehow the Rams made them look like playoff contenders. Benjamin was targeted a monster 12 times against a stingy Denver D in Week 1. He converted those 12 targets into a 6/91/1 stat line. I fully expect more of the same in Week 2. Benjamin took a few nasty low hits around his knees and showed no signs of it bothering him. I think he erased everyone's thoughts of him being hampered by his knee injury forcing him to miss the entire 2015 season.Willie Snead ($5800)
New Orleans +5
NY Giants 53
Willie Snead looks like he could be the co-WR1 in this offense. He caught all nine of his targets totaling 9/172/1. The Giants pass defense was dead last in 2015 and this game will have a TON of scoring all day long. Snead is priced in the middle tier while his production shows he could easily be priced in the upper tier. Brees shows full trust in Snead evidenced by his targets. There will be many weeks where Cooks/Snead are very useful WR's in this offense and Week 2 vs the Giants is a prime example. Another great example of $/workload looks like a tremendous bargain.
Travis Benjamin ($4400)
Jacksonville +3
San Diego 47
With the unfortunate injury to Keenan Allen, the Phillip Rivers targets have to be spread out somewhere. I believe the wealth will be spread out considerably amongst several players. The loss of Allen will slow down the entire offense but Rivers will still throw the ball. The price of Benjamin is worthy of a look. Benjamin hauled in 7 of his 8 targets in Week 1 for a pedestrian 32 yards. It would only take one missed tackle from the Jags for Benjamin to have a much stronger fantasy day.Tajae Sharp ($4100)
Tennessee +7
Detroit 47
I said last week that Sharp looks to be the clear WR1 in this Titans offense. He proved just that totaling 11 targets bringing in 7 of those for 76 yards. His volume is extremely high for his price. Sharp is a great bargain for cash games. He makes a decent fill in for GPP contests but the Titans offense limits his ultimate production. The Lions showed vulnerability in the pass game last week giving up 385 yards and 4 TD's to the Colts while not coming up with any INT's.
Tyrell Williams ($3700)
Jacksonville +3San Diego 47
Williams stands 6'4" and 205 lbs. He has the prototypical size of an elite WR. Williams is currently #3 on the depth chart but could easily see himself rise with a good performance. With Kennan Allen out, Williams has a chance to see an increased roll in this offense. Williams saw 5 targets in Week 1 where he caught 2 for 71 yards.
Marvin Jones ($5500)/Golden Tate ($6800)
Tennessee +7
Detroit 47
Based on Week 1, Marvin Jones is the much better bargain here. Per @MikeTagliereNFL , I found this stat interesting this week.
Average Depth Of Target:
Golden Tate - 1.3 Yards
Riddick - 1.8 Yards
Boldin - 2.0 yards
Abdullah 0.4 Yards
Marvin Jones - 12.0 Yards
That is not to say the game script can't change in Week 2, but it does offer clear evidence how the coaching staff tends to use their offensive weapons.
It should be noted, Jones was targeted 10 times only catching 4 of them. This can easily be attributed to the above depth of target stat.
On the other hand, Tate caught all seven of his targets though his yardage (41 Yards) was considerably lower.
I think Jones is the better buy here due to his price. Tate will have to find himself a little further downfield in Week 2 before I give him my trust once again. I have not given up on him by any means. I do own him in Dynasty as well as several season long leagues I am in.
I answer any and all fantasy and DFS questions
Br_Eilering@yahoo.com
@Brian_Eilering
Wednesday, September 14, 2016
Week 2 RB Plays - DFS
Free DFS Advice - All Free Premium Content
I always like to at least have a snapshot of the five (or so) worst rushing or receiving defenses in either category.
Philadelphia +3
New Orleans +5
Denver 45.5
I always like to at least have a snapshot of the five (or so) worst rushing or receiving defenses in either category.
RK
|
TEAM
|
|||||
27
|
29
|
148
|
5.1
|
2
|
148.0
|
|
28
|
30
|
152
|
5.1
|
0
|
152.0
|
|
29
|
32
|
155
|
4.8
|
2
|
155.0
|
|
30
|
32
|
157
|
4.9
|
1
|
157.0
|
|
31
|
26
|
167
|
6.4
|
3
|
167.0
|
I fully believe this will be the last time the list looks like anything like Week 1. Carolina and Denver beat each other up on TNF, KC will get Justin Houston back, and Cincinnati is simply not that bad.
Where does that leave us? Darn New Orleans again. As mentioned yesterday, this game should be targeted heavy all week. Let's take a look at the next 5 teams, and see if it is something we can work with.
22
|
24
|
116
|
4.8
|
2
|
116.0
|
|
23
|
21
|
120
|
5.7
|
1
|
120.0
|
|
24
|
35
|
129
|
3.7
|
0
|
129.0
|
|
25
|
34
|
133
|
3.9
|
1
|
133.0
|
|
26
|
30
|
147
|
4.9
|
2
|
147.0
|
Ahhh, there we go. This is the fine group of teams you should be looking for and targeting while setting your DFS LU's this week.
Jeremy Langford ($4600)
Philadelphia +3
Chicago 43
The Eagles just gave up 120 yards on the ground to the hapless Cleveland Browns. Langford received a true RB1 workload not sharing much of his duties with his team mates. Langford is undoubtedly the focal point of this rushing attack. I don't think you will find a better price/workload scenario in week 2. In addition, this extensive workload comes against a less than average Philly D. The Bears are projected for 23 of the 43 points in this contest. Langford has nice upside and a high floor, I would consider him in all formats.
TJ Yeldon ($4700)
Jacksonville -3
San Diego 47
Yeldon seemed primed for a monster afternoon vs GB in Week 1. He was only able to come out of the game averaging 1.9 YPC but had a TD making his day for his investors. If Chris Ivory (check status here) is out again Week 2, Yeldon should get a lot of work against a weak SD rush defense. This is another good looking price/workload scenario however Week 1 production for Yeldon does stick in my head.
Rashad Jennings ($5600)
New Orleans +5
NY Giants 53
Jennings did not have quite the day we had hoped in Week 1 (75/0) but he dominated the carries. Jennings carried the ball 18 times to Vareen's 6 carries. Vareen did have three more targets in the passing game. The Saints gave up a monster 167/3 on the ground to the Raiders in Week 1. The Giants could be in for another 400-500 yard offensive day. Jennings makes sense in all DFS formats.
Spencer Ware ($6100)
KC Chiefs +2
Houston 43.5
The price for Ware caught up pretty darn fast. It does not look like Jamaal Charles will be rushed back into this offense. Ware gave the Chiefs plenty of reasons allowing the Chiefs to ease Charles back in. Ware rewarded us all in a tremendous way for 11/71/1 on the ground and 7/129/0 through the air. This is a much less enticing match up though Jeremy Langford had a formidable game against these Texans in Week 1. Ware and West split true playing time though Ware out touched West 19-9. Ware is a sure fire start heading into Week 2 even at his elevated price. Some will be scared off due to his new price tag coupled with his less than desirable match up. I'm firing him up once again.
CJ Anderson ($6800)
Indy +6
Denver 45.5
Anderson proved in Week 1 he is the undeniable starter in Denver. Devontae Booker helped the decision process by fumbling away his first opportunity as a pro. Anderson sliced through a strong Carolina defense for 20/92/1 on the ground and another 4/47/1 through the air. The Broncos will remain content with allowing the ground game dictate their outcome while Trevor Siemian continues to grow as an NFL passer. The Lions used several different RB's against the Colts defense in Week 1. They all had relative success. Anderson could be in for one of the larger performances in Week 2. If you are looking to spend some extra cash in Week 2 at RB, look no further than Anderson.
David Johnson ($7600)
Tamp Bay +6.5
Arizona 50.5
Johnson is the most expensive RB on the board this week. TB gave up over 320 yards to Matt Ryan but held the Falons running game in check. In years past, you would expect the Cardinals to get out to a hot start and allow Johnson to milk away the clock. I do not think this is the same Tampa team who often would roll over early in the game. I would exercise caution with Johnson due to his high price though his versatility in the passing game makes him very attractive in the PPR format Draft Kings offers.
I answer any and all fantasy/DFS questions
Br_Eilering@yahoo.com
Tuesday, September 13, 2016
Week 2 QB Plays - #DFS
Free DFS Advice - All Free Premium Content
As I go through these selections, I typically take all aspects of the game into consideration including match ups, price, and potential roster strategy. I may not roster every selection here but the case can certainly be made for their usage.
NO Saints +5
NY Giants 53
This match up will be featured all week long. It is the highest total on the board and should be considered in all formats as you begin constructing your line ups.
Drew Brees ($8200)
I would exercise caution here as Brees is the most expensive QB on the board. It is very tantalizing for sure but his price is steep! One of my favorite stacks of the week includes a much cheaper QB, Matt Ryan. Brees will make a tremendous option this week. He will be very highly owned in DFS, making him the chalk play in what could be 30% of line ups. I may pivot to some lesser owned players.
Eli Manning ($7600)
You aren't getting much of a discount here. The reason being, the Saints defense is so stinking lousy, every QB's price will be bumped up accordingly. The poor Saints lost their top DB Delvin Breaux for 6 weeks. He was the lone bright spot in this secondary. Manning and company should be in for a huge day. I would not shy away from starting any player on the Giants roster. It should be that kind of day and Vegas agrees. 53 is a big number, I think it could easily hit 60.
Matt Ryan ($6800)
Atlanta +4.5
Oakland 49.5
The price difference between Brees and Ryan is substantial enough to consider. Oakland just gave up over 400 yards and 4 TD's to the Saints. In comes Matt Ryan who had over 320 yards and 2 TD's himself in Week 1. We were told all off season how much stronger this Raiders defense was going to be, Drew Brees must not have been listening. Mohammed Sanu finally gives Ryan the second target he so desperately needed. Sanu caught 5 of the 8 targets thrown his way totaling 59 yards and a score. While the Falcons defense may still be suspect, I am not afraid of their offense. I think Ryan is a great bargain this week.
Joe Flacco ($6500)
Baltimore -6.5
Cleveland 43
The Browns just gave up 278/2/0 to a rookie QB on a bad offense. While I am not convinced the Ravens are exactly a high flying offense, they are certainly more adept than Philly. I believe Cleveland and LA Rams are going to fight it out for the top pick in next years draft. Flacco has just enough weapons to put up a formidable 300/2/0 type afternoon handsomely rewarding us for being bargain shoppers. Flacco may not be the best GPP play as I feel like his upside is limited, but he does make a fantastic cash game player.
There are quite a few good looking QB match ups this week. In the essence of time, I will simply take note of several that catch my eye.
In order of price:
Josh McCown ($5000): You have to trust that the Cleveland offense will be better with McCown than RG3. For the basement price DK offers for QB's, it may be a gamble worth taking allowing for more dollars spent at other positions similar to Dak Prescott last week.
Trevor Siemian ($5200): Has very limited upside but facing Indy and their lackluster defense. They lost their top 2 DB's last week and didn't have any to lose. Good cash play, not GPP.
Dak Prescott ($5800): $800 more expensive than last week. Still a good bargain. Prescott had 45 attempts in Week 1 vs the NYG secondary. A lot of dinks and dunks, might turn it loose a little more vs Washington who struggled mightily vs the Steelers.
Marcus Mariota ($6000): Still a good price against a poor Lions defense who just gave up 385/4/0 to Andrew Luck. Still limited upside, better cash play.
Andy Dalton ($6400): Really an attractive price against a Steelers defense that had major lapses last year. Not a ton of upgrades on D, Dalton could easily outperform price.
Carson Palmer ($6900): Another nice price for a top level QB facing a weak secondary. Facing TB who just gave up nice day to Matt Ryan. Positive outlook for Palmer Week 2.
Derek Carr ($7200): Facing a below average Falcon defense with zero pass rush for the 29th straight season. Winston 281/4/1 last week vs Falcons (no sacks once again).
Cam Newton ($7900): A little too pricey for me but 49ers will rank in bottom 3 of teams this season. Week 1 vs Rams was a mirage. Newton could have massive day Week 2.
I appreciate any and all feedback.
Br_Eilering@yahoo.com
@Brian_Eilering
As I go through these selections, I typically take all aspects of the game into consideration including match ups, price, and potential roster strategy. I may not roster every selection here but the case can certainly be made for their usage.
NO Saints +5NY Giants 53
This match up will be featured all week long. It is the highest total on the board and should be considered in all formats as you begin constructing your line ups.
Drew Brees ($8200)
I would exercise caution here as Brees is the most expensive QB on the board. It is very tantalizing for sure but his price is steep! One of my favorite stacks of the week includes a much cheaper QB, Matt Ryan. Brees will make a tremendous option this week. He will be very highly owned in DFS, making him the chalk play in what could be 30% of line ups. I may pivot to some lesser owned players.
Eli Manning ($7600)
You aren't getting much of a discount here. The reason being, the Saints defense is so stinking lousy, every QB's price will be bumped up accordingly. The poor Saints lost their top DB Delvin Breaux for 6 weeks. He was the lone bright spot in this secondary. Manning and company should be in for a huge day. I would not shy away from starting any player on the Giants roster. It should be that kind of day and Vegas agrees. 53 is a big number, I think it could easily hit 60.
Matt Ryan ($6800)
Atlanta +4.5Oakland 49.5
The price difference between Brees and Ryan is substantial enough to consider. Oakland just gave up over 400 yards and 4 TD's to the Saints. In comes Matt Ryan who had over 320 yards and 2 TD's himself in Week 1. We were told all off season how much stronger this Raiders defense was going to be, Drew Brees must not have been listening. Mohammed Sanu finally gives Ryan the second target he so desperately needed. Sanu caught 5 of the 8 targets thrown his way totaling 59 yards and a score. While the Falcons defense may still be suspect, I am not afraid of their offense. I think Ryan is a great bargain this week.
Joe Flacco ($6500)
Baltimore -6.5
Cleveland 43The Browns just gave up 278/2/0 to a rookie QB on a bad offense. While I am not convinced the Ravens are exactly a high flying offense, they are certainly more adept than Philly. I believe Cleveland and LA Rams are going to fight it out for the top pick in next years draft. Flacco has just enough weapons to put up a formidable 300/2/0 type afternoon handsomely rewarding us for being bargain shoppers. Flacco may not be the best GPP play as I feel like his upside is limited, but he does make a fantastic cash game player.
There are quite a few good looking QB match ups this week. In the essence of time, I will simply take note of several that catch my eye.
In order of price:
Josh McCown ($5000): You have to trust that the Cleveland offense will be better with McCown than RG3. For the basement price DK offers for QB's, it may be a gamble worth taking allowing for more dollars spent at other positions similar to Dak Prescott last week.
Trevor Siemian ($5200): Has very limited upside but facing Indy and their lackluster defense. They lost their top 2 DB's last week and didn't have any to lose. Good cash play, not GPP.
Dak Prescott ($5800): $800 more expensive than last week. Still a good bargain. Prescott had 45 attempts in Week 1 vs the NYG secondary. A lot of dinks and dunks, might turn it loose a little more vs Washington who struggled mightily vs the Steelers.
Marcus Mariota ($6000): Still a good price against a poor Lions defense who just gave up 385/4/0 to Andrew Luck. Still limited upside, better cash play.
Andy Dalton ($6400): Really an attractive price against a Steelers defense that had major lapses last year. Not a ton of upgrades on D, Dalton could easily outperform price.
Carson Palmer ($6900): Another nice price for a top level QB facing a weak secondary. Facing TB who just gave up nice day to Matt Ryan. Positive outlook for Palmer Week 2.
Derek Carr ($7200): Facing a below average Falcon defense with zero pass rush for the 29th straight season. Winston 281/4/1 last week vs Falcons (no sacks once again).
Cam Newton ($7900): A little too pricey for me but 49ers will rank in bottom 3 of teams this season. Week 1 vs Rams was a mirage. Newton could have massive day Week 2.
I appreciate any and all feedback.
Br_Eilering@yahoo.com
@Brian_Eilering
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