Coldest Games Of All Time

As I was doing a little research, I came across a link of the coldest games in NFL history.  I found it entertaining as the Vikings and Seahawks play this weekend.  It looks like game time temperatures will be 2 degrees with a wind chill of -12.

I really wanted to see if the weather would affect the running/passing game either way.  As I went through each game, I did not see anything significant.  The only thing noticeable
was more drops by the WR's.  There is a possibility of a few less passing yards due to drops, but again, I was not blown away by any one statistic.

Have fun this weekend!  I will keep the updates coming as the weekend closes in.

Wild Card Weekend TE Plays

Much like the rest of the positions, TE's have been greatly thinned out as we enter the WC weekend.  And much like the quarterback position, I will not spend time breaking down five different TE's this week.  There are really only two TE's that stand out to me.

1.  Jordan Reed ($6300)

Green Bay 45
Washington -1
Jordan Reed will cost you $1300 more than Tyler Eifert ($5000).  Reed is the best playmaker in the Redskins offense.  Jordan Reed has been dominating the target share through Cousins hot streak.  Reed has gone over 100 yards in two of the last four weeks and has added five touchdowns during that same span.  Since Jordan Reed came into the NFL, the consensus thought was he had elite level talent but could not stay on the field due to health.  While he was unable to play a full 16 games this season, Reed was still able to reach 952 yards and 11 touchdowns.  Cousins is aware of his playmaking TE and the mismatches he creates.  He will continue to use Reed in the middle of the field attempting to open up the long shot play to DeSean Jackson.  Reed could easily be in line for a double-digit target/reception type game making him a viable candidate for all cash and GPP line ups in Wild Card weekend.

2.  Tyler Eifert ($5000)
Pittsburgh -2.5
Cincinnati 46
Tyler Eifert played in 13 games, one less than Reed, and had 300 fewer yards but two more touchdowns.  Eifert was consistently a trusted source inside the red zone.  Eifert only played one game with A.J. McCarron, but that was all he needed to get back on track coming back from his concussion.  Eifert caught all four targets McCarron threw his way in the regular season finale including a touchdown.  Whether Dalton or McCarron plays, Eifert will have his share of targets.  His 70% catch rate helps both quarterbacks trust Eifert.  He ranks 1st among TE's in three key areas according to FootballOutsiders.com which is why he quickly became one of the elite TE's in the NFL over the course of the 2015 regular season.  While I do think Reed has a slightly better day, the price of $5000 makes Eifert a very appealing option this week.

Other Names Of Note:

Heath Miller ($3300): Maybe Ben/Miller know something the rest of the world does not.  In the 13 games where the Steelers were not playing the Bengals, Miller averaged 3.07 receptions per game.  In the two games, the Steelers did play the Bengals, Miller caught 20 balls for 171 yards.  Miller makes a decent sleeper pick this week for a mere $3300.

Kyle Rudolph ($3500):  I like Rudolph as a player and I also believe he has a bright future.  With that said, the Vikings offense is extremely limited and will remain so throughout the playoffs.  His upside is capped by his young play caller, Teddy Bridgewater.  Rudolph may be in for a nice 2016, but I am laying off for DFS this week.

Travis Kelce ($4500):  Kelce is a natural playmaker at the TE position.  He has an amazing size/speed combination, but even with the injuries the Chiefs suffered, he was still limited in this offense.  I am not sure when we will see the full potential of Travis Kelce, but I will have to wait until 2016 before I invest in his services.

Wild Card Week RB Plays

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Wild Card Weekend RB Plays

You would be ill advised to spend big money at RB this week.  There simply isn't a player that projects to have a booming 100+ yard day and multiple touchdowns.

Top Rushing Defenses In NFL (Yardage)

RK	TEAM	ATT	YDS	YDS/A	LONG	TD	YDS/G
1	Seattle	362	1304	3.6	48	10	81.5
2	NY Jets	373	1335	3.6	45	4	83.4
3	Denver	408	1337	3.3	48	10	83.6
4	Carolina	364	1415	3.9	63	11	88.4
5	Pittsburgh	382	1459	3.8	44	6	91.2
6	Arizona	374	1460	3.9	52	9	91.3
7	Cincinnati	344	1477	4.3	69	8	92.3
8	Kansas City	383	1571	4.1	42	7	98.2

Top Rushing Defenses In NFL (Touchdowns)

RK	TEAM	ATT	YDS	YDS/A	LONG	TD	YDS/G
1	NY Jets	373	1335	3.6	45	4	83.4
2	Pittsburgh	382	1459	3.8	44	6	91.2
3	Kansas City	383	1571	4.1	42	7	98.2
	St. Louis	453	1820	4	47	7	113.8
	Minnesota	411	1748	4.3	72	7	109.3
6	Cincinnati	344	1477	4.3	69	8	92.3
	New England	397	1580	4	48	8	98.8

Here are the five top RB's simply sorted by price.  The only name I will consider here is DeAngelo Williams though his health is a major concern.  I will be shopping from a different rack this week.  If you want to see the rack I am shopping from, scroll down a little bit.  There might be a player that pops this week from the more expensive group, but I am not willing to pay the price to find out.  You are just as likely to get similar production from a player $2-$3K cheaper.

Players I will not be using....

Adrian Peterson ($7300)
Seattle -5.5
Minnesota 41
The Seattle rush defense is the #1 rush defense in the NFL.  They have given up a 100+ yard rusher all season.  In addition, the Seahawks have only given up a total of five rushing touchdowns to RB's on the season.  The only player to have multiple touchdowns was Jonathan Stewart back in Week 6.  I am not willing to pay a premium for a 65 yard 0 TD game.

DeAngelo Williams ($7000)
Pittsburgh -2.5
Cincinnati 46
Williams Probably will not play but may have been worth the price of admission.  We will need to monitor his health.

UPDATE: Thursday 1/7/2015

DeAngelo Williams (foot) was the only Steelers player to miss practice with an injury. Will Allen given vet's day off.

— Ray Fittipaldo (@rayfitt1) January 7, 2016

UPDATE: Friday 1/8/2015

The #Steelers consider RB DeAngelo Williams (foot) out vs. #Bengals, sources say. If they win, there's a chance he plays next week.

— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) January 8, 2016

Marshawn Lynch ($6500)
Seattle -5.5
Minnesota 41
He is the 3rd most expensive RB this week and has not played football since Week 10.  We will assume he is a full go for argument's sake.  The Vikings have only given up seven rushing touchdowns to RB's on the season.  There is a statistical anomaly in the Vikings rushing defense.  His name is Carlos Hyde.  His Week 1 168 yards 2 TD day is by far the best day any one RB has had against this Vikings defense.  Lynch is still too rich for my blood.

UPDATE: Marshawn Lynch was doungraded to OUT for the WC game.

Chardcandrick West ($5700)
Kansas City -3
Houston 40
The Texans have not allowed a rusher over 53 yards over the last four weeks.  Going back to Week 10, they have given up one rushing TD to a RB.  James White punched one through on his ONLY carry of the day.  The Texans have only allowed two rushers to go over 100 yards through 16 games.  In a combined effort, the Texans have only allowed 62 total rushing yards over the last two weeks to five different RB's.  That is an average of 31 YPG.  This price is still too much for me though we are starting to get closer to the rack I will shop from.

Jeremy Hill ($5000)
Pittsburgh -2.5
Cincinnati 46
The Steelers rank in the top 5 of both yardage and touchdowns given up.  The last time these two teams faced off, Hill had 16 yards on just four carries.  The Bengals were down early in the game forcing the Bengals to rely more on the pass.  Traditionally, when the Bengals are down, they turn to Gio Bernard as he is far superior in the passing game...hint hint.




Here is the group I am choosing from this week.

1.  Gio Bernard ($4000)

Pittsburgh -2.5
Cincinnati 46
The usage of Hill/Bernard has been dependent on the game flow.  Predicting the game flow is one of the hardest things to do in football.  I won't pretend I have a magic eight ball.  Instead, let's take a look at the strength of the Steelers defense.  Their run defense ranks 5th in yardage and 2nd in touchdowns allowed.  Running the ball up the middle would not seem fruitful.  Getting Bernard the ball in space and allowing him to make plays seems like the wiser decision.  The Steelers secondary has been dreadful making tackles.  If the Bengals can successfully get Bernard the ball on the edge through the air, they will have a much higher success rate capitalizing on the Steelers weakness.  Bernard only needs 40 yards rushing and 3-4 catches to hit 3x value.  That is a more attainable task than relying on Adrian Peterson ($7300) to have to hit 21.9 against the Seahawks defense to reach 3x value.  Bernard has the open field ability and top end speed to take nearly any play for a touchdown.  He has great HR appeal, making his ceiling comparatively high and his floor pretty high as well.  The price of Bernard combined with his pass-catching ability makes him a very strong DFS play for the Wild Card weekend of the NFL playoffs.

2.  Matt Jones ($3900)/Alfred Morris ($3600)

Green Bay 45
Washington -1
I would like to recommend Matt Jones here, but the news just came out he is still very limited in practice as I am typing this.  Jay Gruden has said, "unless Jones get's healthy quick, he will be the odd man out on Sunday".  Assuming Jones is inactive once again due to his hip pointer, Alfred Morris will be the main beneficiary.  Morris would take a heavy dose of the early down work, leaving a combination of Pierre Thomas and Chris Thompson to share the passing down work.  Morris does not catch the ball very well meaning he will have to get all of his points on the ground.  Morris is very capable of rushing the ball 20+ times in a game.  He has done so 21 times throughout his career.  If Morris can pile up 20+ carries, he can topple 100 yards and a score.  Matt Jones is a more attractive DK option due to his pass catching ability.  My recommendation will be one of these two backs, we will have to wait and see how Jones practices as the week progresses.  Both have a very nice price and both will have the opportunity to score similar DK points compared to the much more expensive backs this week.

UPDATE:  Matt Jones remained limited in practice Thursday.

3.  Fitzgerald Toussaint ($3900)

Pittsburgh -2.5
Cincinnati 46
UPDATE: DeAngelo Williams is now OUT for the game!

The Steelers are grasping at straws here with DeAngelo Williams now very questionable for the playoff game with their divisional rival.  This is purely mining for gold in a mine that has produced tons of it in the past.  Toussaint is an unknown talent right now.  He was only able to muster 2.0 YPC last week in the absence of Williams.  He may absolutely flop, but he can catch the ball making his value a little more appealing.  There is a strong possibility Toussaint gets a full workload in making his price of $3900 a very good bargain.  The Bengals rush defense is very strong.  I do not expect a 100+ yard performance, but again, it is quite possible the Wild Card weekend doesn't produce one.  The point here is, You are only spending $3900 for a decent performance.  If you go Peterson or Lynch, you may very well get a similar performance.  Of course the difference is spending $7300/$6500 making 3x and 4x value a humongous mountain to climb.  I would much rather spend the money on the WR position.

I completely understand being tentative here.  It is an absolute roll of the dice and a gut check.  Just remember when you are setting your LU's, seven of the top eight rushing defenses are in the playoffs.  Five of them are playing this weekend in the Wild Card round.  The playoffs are vastly different than the regular season and our LU's will reflect those differences.  You will have to pick your poison this week and mine will not be spending a ton of money on RB's.

Wild Card Weekend WR Plays

I will answer any and all DFS and fantasy football questions.

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Wild Card Weekend WR Plays

I will once again attempt to save money at other skill positions to spend as much money at WR as possible.  I anticipate Antonio Brown will be the highest owned player in DFS this week, but his production makes it very hard to bet against him.

There are a few top tier WR's to choose from and you do not want to be on the wrong side of this decision.

1.  Antonio Brown ($9600)

Pittsburgh -2.5
Cincinnati 46
Brown will cost you $1200 more than DeAndre Hopkins ($8400) and $2100 more than A.J. Green ($7500).  Pay the ransom.  Brown is averaging over 10 receptions per game over his last four going over 180 yards in two.  Brown needs a lofty 28.8 points to hit 3x value 38.4 to hit 4x.  Due to his price, Brown will make a better cash game play this week though his recent monster performances hint towards using him in GPP contests as well.  The Bengals defense is tough.  You have to go back to Week 11  to find a WR topping 100 yards against this defense where J.J. Nelson went for 4/142/1.  It will not be easy for Brown to pay dividends for us, but this is the playoffs, all of the match ups are tougher for all players.  If DeAngelo Williams sits this game out due to injury, it leaves the Steelers with Fitzgerald Toussaint and Jordan Todman as their lead backs. The Steelers will have to throw the ball more, opening the door for the entire Steelers passing game.



2.  Jeremy Maclin ($6400)
Kansas City -3
Houston 40
After choosing from the top tier of Brown/Hopkins/Green, you have to find some value at the WR position.  Jeremy Maclin found the end zone six times in his last six games.  Due to the low volume of the Chiefs passing attack, Maclin has only averaged 5.25 receptions per game over his last four.  His big game potential is quite limited, eliminating him from our GPP cards, but his mid-range consistency makes him a very strong play for our cash line ups.  Maclin needs 19.2 points to hit 3x value which is not out of the range of possibilities.  Maclin has more than double the amount of targets (124) compared to the next WR on the roster (Wilson 57).  The Texans have only allowed two rushers over 100 yards this season.  If the Chiefs want to move the football, they will have to find ways to get the ball in their best playmakers' hands.  Look for Maclin on some quick screens and underneath grabs to up his PPR total.  If Maclin can pop one of those for a quick strike, his 3x value will be well within our reach.

3.  Martavis Bryant ($5600)
Pittsburgh -2.5
Cincinnati 46
From the looks of it, Bryant may face off against Bengals DB Dre Kirkpatrick.  Kirkpatrick is the PFF's 111th ranked DB in the NFL.  Kirkpatrick has had communication issues with his safeties leading to several long TD's over the course of the season.  If you know anything about Martavis Bryant, you know he likes to go deep!  The Bengals will do anything they can to try and slow down Antonio Brown.  While I don't know if they will be successful, this could open up coverage for Bryant and Markus Wheaton to have a big day.  Wheaton typically lines up in the slot where Leon Hall lines up in the Bengals nickel formation.  Hall is PFF's #26 ranked DB lending more to a better day for Bryant.  Bryant has had some big days this season going over 100 yards three different times while adding six touchdowns in the 11 games he has played.  Bryant has had some boom/bust material this season, making him a better GPP play though I feel pretty comfortable using him in my cash lineups as well.

4.  DeSean Jackson ($4500)

Green Bay 45
Washington -1
The Redskins come in as one of the hottest teams in the NFL with one of the hottest quarterbacks in the NFL.  As Cousins continues his path to becoming a very wealthy man, he is bringing some of his pass catchers with him. His speed and open field running ability allow DeSean Jackson has to take any play the distance.  Jackson has only played in nine games this season (Week 1 he played 13 offensive snaps before pulling his hamstring) totaling over 500 yards and 4 touchdowns.  With a full 16 games of the current day Kirk Cousins, it is not impossible to think Jackson could have had a 1200 yard 8-10 TD season.  The Redskins are projected for the highest team total (23) of Wild Card weekend, Kirk Cousins and the passing game will be the ones to produce the points.  Another boom/bust type of player, but with the field thinned out here in the playoffs, ride the hot hand of Cousins and the Redskins passing game.  Something tells me I'm not finished talking about the Redskins just yet.

Wild Card Weekend QB Plays


I will answer any and all DFS/fantasy questions

Tweet me @Brian_Eilering
Email me: Br_Eilering@yahoo.com

Wild Card Weekend QB Plays

The Daily Fantasy Minute: Where your DFS advise is always free!

We closed out the final week of the regular season with a bang if you followed the plays DFM suggested.  Every card I played cashed out and did not have one with less than 190 points.  It is time to take that momentum into the NFL Wild Card weekend!

Things change a little bit in the playoffs.  There are substantially fewer teams playing this weekend so our chances of hitting the right player at each position are greater.  It also means hitting on each player is much more important.

There are four games this weekend and depending on what the Bengals do at QB, there are eight to choose from.  I will not rank five QB's as I normally do in the regular season.  Instead, I will just dive into the match ups that will round out our best line ups.



1.  Russell Wilson ($7000)

Seattle -5.5
Minnesota 41
In Week 16, Russell Wilson had the least amount of pass attempts going back to Week 7.  There is a very simple reason for that, the Seahawks beat Arizona 36-6.  In a week where Wilson only had 28 attempts, he still threw for three TD's.  Wilson now has a 24/1 TD/INT ratio over the last seven weeks.  The only game he had less than three passing TD's was in Week 16 against the Rams.  Wilson is as hot as any quarterback in the NFL right now and that momentum will carry into the playoffs.  The Seahawks last played the Vikings in Week 13 where Wilson went 274/3/0 passing and added 51 yards rushing and a touchdown.  Wilson had a price tag of $5600 in Week 13 and he now will cost you $7000.  He had over 34 points that week, which is more than 4x value at his present day price.  Wilson is the second most expensive quarterback for Wild Card weekend, but don't let that scare you away from owning him.  Look for Wilson to have another multiple passing touchdown games with a possibility of a running score as well.

2.  Kirk Cousins ($5900)

Green Bay 45
Washington -1
If you simply want to rate quarterbacks in terms of momentum headed into the playoffs, Cousins and Wilson may be interchangeable at the top of the list.  In a game where Cousins played for one-quarter taking, 24 offensive snaps, he still found a way to throw three touchdowns in Week 17 against the Cowboys.  Cousins now has 11 passing touchdowns in his last nine quarters of football.  He has thrown for 300+ yards in four of his last six games and has added three rushing touchdowns in that same span.  Green Bay is playing as poorly as they have all season while the Redskins have won their last four scoring 32.75 on average during their four-games winning streak.  This game is the second highest total of the weekend with Washington projected to score 23 of the total 45.  The Packers have averaged just 10.5 points over the last two weeks as they stumble their way into the playoffs.  Cousins price tag of $5900 makes him a must start in our DFS line ups.  He is the 5th most expensive quarterback this week and could easily be the highest scoring.

Other Notes:
Ben Roethlisberger:  If you have read my column this year, you know I have recommended Ben all season long.  The status of DeAngelo Williams makes me pause on Roethlisberger.  I do feel there will be more passing attempts if Williams does not play, however, I am not convinced the Steelers will be efficient enough with the football this week.  Roethlisberger is the most expensive quarterback at $7200.  Utilizing your money properly this week will be an essential piece to the DFS puzzle and Roethlisberger may not be the answer.

Andy Dalton/AJ McCarron: As of Tuesday, it is unclear which quarterback will play Saturday.  I am not willing to place my money here with no clarity at the position.

Aaron Rodgers:  He is simply playing bad football.  Whether it is poor line play, players dropping the ball, or poor decision making, Rodgers just is not playing well enough consistently for me to trust him in DFS this week.  Rodgers has not topped 300 yards since Week 10 and has not thrown more than two touchdowns since Week 9.

Brian Hoyer/Alex Smith/Teddy Bridgewater:  All of these quarterbacks have a very low ceiling and a very low floor.  I really don't care what their price tag is, they are not attractive for DFS.  Brian Hoyer has the highest ceiling though they are facing the Chiefs whose defense has been tremendous all year.  I would much rather take my chances with Kirk Cousins who only cost $500 more.


I answer any and all fantasy and DFS questions
Tweet me @Brian_Eilering
Email me Br_Eilering@yahoo.com

Wild Card Weekend Vegas Lines

The Daily Fantasy Minute:  Where your DFS advice is always free!

Here are the opening lines for Wild Card Weekend.  Lines are pulled from DonBest.com

NFL WILD CARD PLAYOFFS - Saturday, January 9th
Rot	Opener	Team	Time	SC		Westgate	Mirage	Station	Pinnacle	SIA
101 102	- -	Kansas City Chiefs Houston Texans	4:35 PM	- -		-3.0 40.0	-3.0 40.5	-3.0 40.5	-3.5 40.0	-3.5 40.0
105 106	- -	Pittsburgh Steelers Cincinnati Bengals	8:15 PM	- -		-2.5 46.0	-2.5 47.0	-2.5 46.5	-2.5 46.5	-2.5 45.5

NFL WILD CARD PLAYOFFS - Sunday, January 10th
Rot	Opener	Team	Time	SC		Westgate	Mirage	Station	Pinnacle	SIA
103 104	- -	Seattle Seahawks Minnesota Vikings	1:05 PM	- -		-5.5 41.0	-5.5 42.0	-5.0 42.0	-5.5 41.5	-6.0 42.0
107 108	- PK	Green Bay Packers Washington Redskins	4:40 PM	- -		45.0 -1.0	46.0 -1.0	46.0 -1.0	45.5 -1.0	45.0 -1.0

Important Week 17 News Updates

Several of the players I recommended have changed their status for the week.  I have updated the section in the posts below but wanted to update everyone in one concise location.  I will not be using any of the players listed below in DFS unless some spectacular news breaks.



SUNDAY UPDATE:  Zack Miller INACTIVE:  I will pivot to Zach Ertz on all cards.  Money saved will upgrade defense unless I can piece the puzzle together another way.

SUDAY UPDATE:  Bilal Powell INACTIVE:  I will pivot some of my Cameron Artis-Payne cards to Chris Ivory.

Martavis Bryant:  Questionable with illness.  Markus Wheaton to see more looks.
Michael Floyd: Unknown injury, unknown status.  I pivoted to John Brown in each of my line ups.
Cameron Artis-Payne:  Jonathan Stewart officially ruled out.  I would start CAP in my contests with much more confidence.
Ted Ginn: Officially doubtful for Week 17.  I am hesitant on all Panthers.  May see extra rest.
Todd Gurley:  Gurley listed as doubtful.  I did not recommend Gurley, rather the opposite.  The point here is to possibly jump on an opportunity.  Tre Mason makes a nice Hail Mary play for just $3000.

Gurley will miss San Francisco game: https://t.co/rveToDkEoO via @STLtoday

— Jim Thomas (@jthom1) January 1, 2016

Bilal Powell:  Listed as questionable but unlikely to play.  Another player I did not recommend but another opportunity.  Chris Ivory ($4400) should see more work with Powell out.  Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker may see more targets in the passing game as well.


Those are the big names for now, I will keep you posted.  If you have any specific questions about a player or situation, let me know.  Week 17 is a strange week for all of football.  If you don't stay on top of the important information, you will easily get burned on game day.


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